I'm feeling really, really confident in this, especially after the reaction to the trailer last night with The Unborn.

Everything about this release date is perfect, from the long weekend, the Friday the 13th gimmick, and Valentine's Day to even soften the second day drop. Speaking of which, that's another interesting thing to look at, 'cause obviously the Friday the 13th gimmick will make it really frontloaded like The Omen and stuff, but then again, the next day is not only Saturday but Valentine's Day (in 2004, not a single film increased less than 90% in the top 20). And then Sunday's drop won't be too bad because there's no school on Monday (but probably worse than average).

Realistically, I think this could get the President's Day weekend record (held by Ghost Rider, at $52m four-day). But it is rated R and stuff, so it's tough.

But $45m (and the second highest President's Day opening, as long as it beats 50 First Dates' $45.1m) is in the cards.

Who's in?

Members:
1. Zingaling
2. Rorschach
3. Flava'd
4. excel
5. SolC9
6. Mike
7. Benjamin Milk
8. Chip N' Munk
9. zuule

I dunno, Zing...I think there's a limit to an R-rated franchise horror film.

Freddy vs. Jason was very much an event R-rated flick (remember, Freddy films have always been bigger too) and it opened to around $36 million in the summer.

This would need $40 million 3-day and for that it'll need an opening day of at least $18 million (considering it'll drop big time on Saturday, even with Valentine's Day).

I'm thinking more like $37-39 million 4-day.

The Friday the 13th gimmick works quite well, as shown last year by The Happening. For a film so badly received as Lady In The Water, which did $18 m opening weekend, to The Happening which topped $30 m and opened to $13.1 m on Friday the 13th, I think the day itself has at least a $5 m uptick for a scary film's potential. Inflation is way past everything at this point, so I could certainly see a Freddie Vs Jason like opening.

It should be able to open to $15 m + on Friday, but even with Valentine's Day, I'm seeing at least a 15% decrease for it. It will get close, but I think it would need a $20 m Friday.

I feel like the Friday the 13th boost and Valentine's Day almost cancel each other out, but even if it drops, I don't think it'll be over 10%. $17m opening day should do it, and considering that...

a) The Omen pulled in $12.6m on a Tuesday ($4,800 PTA)
b) Schools are off on its opening day
c) This should manage like 3,200 theaters

$17m isn't too difficult. The highest grossing day for a film in the Saw series was $14.8m. Another $2.2m with this kinda gimmick can't be that hard.

This could be ridiculous and $40m might be more realistic, but I'm still for it.

I just don't see even with Valentine's Day, a film called "Friday the 13th" not drop more than 10% on "Saturday the 14th." Half of this film's opening is a gimmick. Without Valentine's Day, I could see a 35% or 40% drop in its 2nd day. But with Valentine's Day, it'll be more subdued, but still way past 10%.

Don't think so. Horror films have a limited audience (based on their inability to cross 100M since 2002).

Yeah, but $17 million probably won't be enough for $45 million 4-day.

Actually, folks, if you look at the box-office, F13 is easily the least popular of the three biggies (Halloween and Nightmare being the other two).

Don't forget that Halloween H2 made $55 million and even Halloween: Resurrection starring Busta fucking Rhymes made $30+ million.


Jason X made what, $13 million?

i think it might do a bit better than Halloween, but certainly not 45m 4-day big. I think it'd be great if this cracks 30m over the 4-day.

But it didn't work for every movie. The Grudge Two emphasized its Friday the 13th release date, yet opened to half of what The Grudge opened to.

This looks so much more awesome than Halloween did. And has a far better release date (Valentine's Day + four-day weekend in February > three-day weekend the week of schools starting again in August/September)

Like, the trailer just makes it look like the ideal horror flick (Jason running up at the girl at the end, perfect). I don't know, I know Friday the 13th is the least popular of the old horror series, but at the same time, I just see this working.

The Grudge 2 (which, I know, only opened to $20m in the end, but it was destined to drop anyway and made 50% of its weekend on opening day, showing how helpful Friday the 13th is for a horror film) opened on Friday the 13th and dropped 25% on Saturday, and that wasn't Valentine's Day. I think this could do 10%. So...

Friday - $17m
Saturday - $15.3m (-10%)
Sunday - $9.2m (-40%)
Monday - $4.6m (-50%)

$46.1m four-day.

And, even if maybe it might drop more on Saturday, I don't even feel like $17m is the max opening day for this.

In, the marketing will push it over $45M.

I think it's gonna be big, but I can't go with this big for a couple reasons.

One -- series popularity. Friday's the least popular of the big three. Halloween had a ton of buzz in '07 and topped out at $30 million. Jason hasn't been in a majorly successful stand-alone flick since '84.

Two -- horror has a cap. The Grudge has the highest grossing horror opening weekend of all time at $39.1 million. It benefited from a PG-13 rating, lots of goodwill from The Ring, and a late October release date.

I've taken some of the biggest horror openings of the last decade and inflated them:

Scream 3 - $45,987,881
Freddy Vs. Jason - $43,133,729
The Grudge - $44,916,241
The Ring Two - $39,058,625
Saw III - $36,637,901
Halloween - $31,747,842 (4-day)

I think it'll be big, Zing. I just don't think it has the power to cross $45m.

It's sad that two things are missing for good comarison:

- The Omen's 6/6/6 opening day should have been a Friday

- Halloween should have opened last year on Halloween

Had these two things happened we would have had a much better basis for comparison.


I have no doubt in my mind that had Halloween opened on October 31st with the same hype and all, it would have made $35+ million for the 3-day weekend.


That said, F13 is simply a smaller franchise. ANYTHING above $30 million 3-day and $35 million 4-day will be amazing. I simply don't think an F13 movie can go THIS high overall. The Texas Chainsaw Massacre made $80 million 3 years ago, but it had a much more effective trailer IMO and opened during a time when not many horror films were around.

F13 is preceded by a month with The Unborn, The Uninvited, My Bloody Valentine 3D and, to an extent, Underworld 3. The horror audiences will be somewhat saturated.

A $45+ million 4-day opening would mean a $83-85 million total at least and I don#t see that happening for it, really.

Good points.

The only good President's Day weekend comparison I found is Constantine (not quite straight horror, but horror-ish, and also rated R), which would adjust to $37.8m four-day. For this to muster up another $7.2m, I don't think that's too hard.

Also, TCM had a great trailer, but so does this. And that adjusts to like $33.5m today.

And there doesn't have to be a precedent (always my excuse when I'm out of arguments ). I know it's hard for a horror film to make $40m 3-day (which it would need), but I think all aspects of this film and its release date are just right.

Because I've rediscovered the habit, here are adjusted opening weekend numbers for every movie in the series.

F13 - $15,438,115
F13 2 - $16,513,905
F13 3D - $22,844,410
F13 4 - $23,764,189
F13 5 - $16,156,277
F13 6 - $12,992,176
F13 7 - $14,323,496
F13 8 - $11,186,554
JGTH - $13,024,791
JX - $8,185,155

I say this because of how the Halloween remake performed compared to the rest of the series. Halloween II's opening weekend adjusts to $19,125,204. Halloween H20 opens at $24,643,997. What's more, H20 opened on a Wednesday -- it's five day adjusted total is $37,683,868.

These numbers support a $31 million 4-day frame. Friday's numbers don't support a huge $45m opening.

Well, the more gratifying it'll be if it pays off : )

HOWEVER...if done right and marketed well...Nightmare on the Elm Street remake will very well open to $35+ million.

Yeah, Elm Street will be huge if it looks good. I can see that taking The Grudge's record.

With an 45m+ opening its total would come close to the first - and most successful - one adjusted, wouldn't it? Wouldn't that be a bit dumb to suggest, i mean with the series being basically dead, the last installments pretty much flopping?

Okay, I'll give you that one, Nazgul. Good job.

In this defense of this thread (compared to Star Trek), the horror genre is very hit and miss. In the case of Halloween, H20 did very well (and had solid word-of-mouth), but if Halloween: Resurrection looks like shit, it'll do shit. But then, the Halloween remake had some great marketing and brought it back. Friday the 13th was, in general, a failure of series in terms of box-office, but the character is still very well-known, the trailer is terrific (and I've seen some great reactions to it) and it'll bring out the date crowd in droves on Valentine's Day weekend, as well as the people who watch horror films in general (hell, The Unborn is gonna make $45m, good trailer and marketing will do the trick, add a brand name and a gimmick and you're gold - kinda like FvJ).

I'm thinking like $83m total, btw. It'll drop very quickly.

I love your thinking Zing. And I hope you are right. The new trailer is fantastic.

In no doubt about it

Not completely sure it will make it, but I'm in. I almost never go see horror
movies, but I want to see this one.

I'll be in. This is a fucking horror event if I ever saw one. The TV spots are AMAZING! It's one of my most anticipated movies of the......wait for it.....year .

Check out all 7 TV spots here: http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2009/ ... railer.php

Bloody excellent advertising!

Agreed.
I honestly cant wait. I'll be there opening night and will see it more than once because i just know its gonna be great. Hopefully this will be massive at the box office. I just hope people dont brand it a dissapointment if it does $30-$35m 4 day.