I think The Unborn is underestimated.

Looks great for Bride Wars and Valentine.

DP07 wrote:
Mahone wrote:
ReelSource Tracking via notfabio - http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?1231135223.notfabio

Quote:
Unborn: Between 10-13
Bride Wars: Between 26-29
My Bloody Valentine: Low 30's (4 day)
Paul Blart: High Single Digits (4 day)
Hotel For Dogs: Between 8-11 (4 day)
Notorious - Low double digits (4 day)


Continues to be good news for MBV3D. Hotel and Blart look like dogs

Agreed on MBV, outragously good. However I just saw the R attatched to this. It seems like that will limit intake and low 30's sounds optimistic. I think 25 is reasonable and good.

I think Blart and Notorius are being underestimated. dogs looks like a fail. Bridewars still looks good.

I'm sure the rating is factored into the projection. Although RS might be overestimating it. It's still early.

My derby predictions

1. Marley and Me - $27.0 million (-26%)
2. Bedtime Stories - $21.5 million (-22%)
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $18.3 million (-32%)
4. Valkyrie - $15.0 million (-29%)
5. Yes Man - $12.5 million (-25%)
6. Seven Pounds - $9.8 million (-26%)
7. The Tale of Despereaux - $7.3 million (-18%)
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still - $4.9 million (-36%)
9. Doubt - $4.2 million (-22%)
The Spirit - $3.5 million (-46%)

Top Ten Total - 123.9 (+10% from last year)

Not much to say about my predictions. I used 2003's and 1997's patterns to determine some of the holdovers fates. I expect increases for Marley and Bedtime to be in the high 40% range today, and with scant increases on Friday, and the typical 2.5 multiplier from Friday, same goes for Despereaux but it will get a lower decline thanks to a better midweek hold. Curious Case, Valkyrie, Yes Man, Seven Pounds, and even DTESS are expected increases of 70% today, with either a slight increase, or a slight decrease on Friday, and a 2.5 - 2.6 IM from that. Doubt is a little tougher one to call, since it increased on NYE. It may a low increase, or barely increase at all today. The Spirit is nowhere to be found on the charts, so I gave it a drop similar (a bit worse) to American Werewolf in Paris. soooo...

1. MarLey and Me - 26.9m (-26%)
2. Bedtime Stories - 21.7m (-21%)
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 17.7m (-34%)
4. VaLkyrie - 14.3m (-32%)
5. Yes Man - 12.8m (-23%)
6. Seven Pounds - 9.9m (-25%)
7. The TaLe of Despereaux - 6.9m (-22.5%)
8. The Day the Earth Stood StiLL - 4.6m (-40%)
9. Doubt - 4.5m (-15%)
10. The Spirit - 3.4m (-48%)

Top Ten TotaL - 122.7m

Our derby:

1. Marley and Me: 26.6M (-27%)
2. Bedtime Stories: 20.0 (-27%)
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 18.2 (-32.5%)
4. Valkyrie: 14.7 (-30%)
5. Yes Man: 12.4 (-25.5%)
6. Seven Pounds: 9.7 (-26.5%)
7. The Tale of Desperaux: 6.9 (-22%)
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still: 5.4 (-30%)
9. Doubt: 4.3 (-19.5%)
10. The Spirit: 3.1 (-52%)

Not much to add. Bedtime Stories may struggle to 20M with a normal 25/30% rise on Thursday. The Day the Earth Stood Still isn't experiencing bad dailies, and without any theatre loss it will perform about in line with most holdovers. The Spirit had a terrible run after its decent OD, much worse than ROTK and American Werewolf, and that makes a drop in the 40's kinda hard to achieve.

1. Marley and Me: 26.9m
2. Bedtime Stories: 21.9m
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 20.7m
4. Valkyrie: 16.2m
5. Yes Man: 12.7m
6. Seven Pounds: 10.0m
7. The Tale of Desperaux: 7.1m
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still: 5.5m
9. Doubt: 4.8m
10. The Spirit: 3.7m

Once again, kinda similar to mine. Then again, this was is a pretty easy one to call, because anyone who knows the pattern should get this one easily.

Yep, as expected very similar predictions all around. But the comparison with 2003/2004 may hurt again a little, increases for most films have been considerably higher than they were 5 years ago, not sure if it just means worse multipliers, like last weekend.

Hope the IM's are similar. I went considerably higher on every movie than you lot