http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117938 ... id=31&cs=1

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/tel ... &rid=11926

Doesn't look like a BP contender.

I have no idea, but it is a GREAT movie.

Only problem is that those films weren't backed by a studio that's already stacked this year. I can actually see The Wrestler get like four major nominations and miss Picture.

Genre: Horror

The horror elements are more of a byproduct than anything else, but yeah, probably. But it'd still be one of the more high-profile foreign films of the year. EDIT: Actually, it wasn't released in Sweden at the time. So that's probably why.

Also, when is Australia coming out?

So I just saw Milk...

I thought it was good, real good but not astoundingly great. I think it may get a nom riding on the wave of activism going on now. There are plot points in the film that echo SOOOO closely the Prop 8 fight. Almost as if it was done on purpose. We'll see how strong the rest of the competition is.

Sean Penn was really great though! And Emile Hirsch was so funny.

Yeah, that's basically what I'm seeing now. I think it'll certainly get a nomination now just from the timeliness of it and because it'll be quality, but not a win.

Yeah. It's not in contention to win. If the competition is tough for a nomination it might get in just because of the timeliness.

But with Doubt not starting off strong, it may increase its chances.

I never considered Doubt or Frost/Nixon to be Picture contenders. Frost/Nixon is looking slightly stronger now, but both are way too dispassionately stagy in a year of big artistic statements.

Artistic statements...huh?

Doubt's definitely not dead. It still has 3 acting nominations looking very likely, which is HUGE. That alone may be able to carry it, along with some other possible noms like screenplay, costume, art direction, etc.

Still have 4 strong:

TDK and Benjamin Button - Assumingly the big dogs
Slumdog - The LMS/Juno festival hipster choice
Milk - The "Michael Clayton" slot... lots of acting nominations, the biopic plot, and the timeliness make it an easy choice as a filler nom, but ultimately has no shot at winning.

5? - I dunno. Doubt/The Reader/Revolutionary Road seem like the baity projects the academy has rejected the last couple years. But Atonement did slide in last year. I could see this slot being the BP without BD choice. The Wrestler looks decent but I think Milk might've stolen its "Michael Clayton" slot oppurtunity. I think Slumdog as the certified 'hip' choice will kill Happy-Go-Lucky or Rachel Getting Married or something else small's chances. I guess I'll go with The Reader because it'd present a female dominated film... feels a bit like an Atonement, baity but solid enough baity to get in.

Also, where will the brits go? I could see them liking Slumdog.

Slumdog Millionaire is getting stronger reviews than LMS or Juno did, 8.7 average at RT with 14 counted.

Yeah, to be honest I think Slumdog, not TDK, is the closest to a sure thing at this point. It has the passion card, crowd-pleaser slot, and critics groups in its back pocket already. Barring a total collapse at the box-office I don't see how it'll falter.

Yeah, I also think that Slumdog is looking pretty likely. Fox Searchlight knows how to handle the crowd pleasers and this one already has its passionate fan base, which will probably only grow after the movie is released next weekend.

Yeah that's the way it's looking now.

What about Gran Torino in there somewhere? And I haven't been around much lately but are people writing off Australia?

My gut feeling is: I think Benjamin Buttons has to be a complete disaster in order not to be nominated at this point, and (sight unseen) I think it's still basically fighting for the win with The Dark Knight and potentially Milk. With Zodiac seen as a major success, at least critically, now seems to be a good time for Fincher if he can at least deliver something basically on par with the best parts of his work. TDK will score big in technicals (with Australia and Buttons trying for it too) and will eek out a Ledger win which will be it's major victory.

What's odd this year is that you could easily put Fincher, Nolan, Aronofsky and Boyle into a box and call them 4 of the best directors who have risen to prominence in the last few years that all have a significant body of work that really hasn't been rewarded... Del Toro, Curaon and Anderson are some of those that are missing from that bunch this year. I really feel that Fincher (of that crowd) is kind of the best hopes. But I really see the academy rewarding someone in that foursome this year rather than an established person like Demme, Van Sant or Eastwood or (ugh) Howard.

Just my gut though.

If anything, on paper, Doubt is the weakest of the contendors (well except BActress, Streep may have that in the bag).

If you look at the studios:

The Dark Knight (WB)
Milk (Focus)
Benjamin Buttons (Paramount/WB)

Slumdog (Fox Searchlight)
Australia (Fox)
Gran Torino (WB)
Rachel (Sony)
Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)
Frost/Nixon (Universal)
Doubt (Miramax/Disney)
Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/paramount)
Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax)

There's not a ton of conflict here (and admittedly, studios can get multiple nominees but you will not see TDK, Buttons and Gran Torino on the same ticket, it will not be a WB sausage fest...) I would say that Gran Tornio, Wrestler, Happy-Go-Lucky and maybe Revolutionary Road (maybe) are somewhat handicapped in the whole get-the-whole-studio-support-behind-a-nomination bag.

And I'm not considering Wall-E a BP candidate at this point. Could change, but I think the list above is extremely strong even though it's not been as vast as previous years. There's too much to reward this year, even if Benjamin Buttons falls apart. Perhaps if TDK wasn't there... perhaps.

Slumdog Millionaire got a 97 at BFCA!

Ok, I gotta see this movie!

Playing now?

Why can I picture Australia being one of the most infamous disasters of this decade? I think this film will be known and brought up as a punchline in 30 years, but for all the wrong reasons!

That didn't sound "disastrous," especially since the reviews indicated the film itself was really good and had great performances. Plus, I expected that original ending from the getgo. The film itself didn't exactly scream uplifting to me anyway.

I still have faith. It's Baz. He's going to make this one great.

Yeah, Slumdog Millionaire is in. Definitely.

I think Slumdog Millionaire could follow Sideways in terms of critic backing, especially given a relatively weak year. The MC score should be in the 90s as well. And with a much more established director, Danny Boyle, at the helm, this should contend not just for noms, but a couple of wins too.

The weird thing about Slumdog Millionaire is that it doesn't seem like it's in contention for a lot of noms. Picture/Director/Screenplay looks good, but the only techs that look likely would maybe Costumes (India!) or Score, and category confusion is gonna be tough on the main lead (They're apparently campaigning him in Supporting, which seems kinda very dumb).

Ugh, I need to work on some more predictions.