Would y'all say Frost/Nixon is totally out?

And I still don't know what to make of Che. Will it just miss out entirely or does Benicio still stand a chance?

Frost/Nixon's not getting a Best Picture nomination if there aren't any more big-league disasters after Australia. Actor, Editing, maybe Screenplay (though it's pretty stagey). Che's the Novecento of the century.

Happy-Go-Lucky:


http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/happygolucky

84/100 and 7 100-scores.

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009538-happy-go-lucky/

93% (7.7/10) and 100% COTC.



Rachel Getting Married:

http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/r ... ingmarried

82/100 and 8 100-scores

http://64.14.20.205/m/rachel_getting_married/

88% (7.7/10) and 94% COTC.


I would still keep an eye on both if Milk and Frost/Nixon fail as well.

Best Director nominations, sure. Picture? Eh, I still think they are too small. Happy-Go-Lucky won't even gross as much as Vera Drake.

Hmm, I'm pretty sure it will gross more, considering it will probably gets lots of award buzz for Actress and maybe Supporting Actor and generally very favorable reviews.

Happy-Go-Lucky's theatre count increased by 215% this weekend, but its PTA dropped by just 47%. Vera Drake actually never even hit 100 theatres, HGL should manage that soon.

And Rachel Getting Married looks good for $15+ million.

I haven't carefully followed box office in a long time now, so I'll go with you. Still, Vera Drake had major nominations too.

HR and Variety are quite positive on Milk

http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117938 ... =3266&cs=1

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/fil ... &rid=11906

Will have to see how its buzz and b.o. holds up, but it's in the race for sure.

I'd keep an eye on them either way, since they clearly have their supporters despite the "small movie" label they're getting so many times. In these cases, b.o. might be determinant, yeah - one could think of Vera Drake's BP chances being increased if it hasn't grossed less than $4 million in US. Either way, both of them should at least double that.

Milk is pretty much in methinks. It doesn't even need a full consensus, as it's THE "big issue" movie of the season (anything above 70% might be enough; see Babel/Crash). It does need some box-office, but I'm sure it'll have a nice run.

Yeah, I think Milk looks good too. Should have noms in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, and Screenplay pretty assured, and it's a very nominatable type of film and has a bit of the socially 'timely' card going for it. I'm feeling pretty confident in TDK, Button, Slumdog, and Milk, the last slot I have going to The Wrestler but it could be Doubt or Revolutionary Road if they're better than their trailer indicates, or The Reader if it can survive the mess behind the scenes. Australia I guess is in the conversation though I'm really feeling it being a gigantic mess/bomb. Milk doing good is bad news for The Wrestler, as if Rourke had no competition in BA and destroyed the critics groups, it would've got in for sure. But Penn is right there now.

This year is actually not nearly as weak as it seemed a couple weeks ago, eh. That's 9 films 'in the conversation' right there, and that's not counting the indies Happy Go Lucky and Rachel Getting Married, Wall-E for the blinded by hopes, Gran Torino, or the left field choices like Shanghai or something.

Just saw Slumdog. It's in.

HAHAHAHAHA

No.

Removing The Wrestler from Best Picture. Buzz has been a bit quiet on it and I don't like the release date, but Slumdog Millionaire I think has the same company and is getting pushed much harder.

Were you at the Angelika screening?!?!?

Yep, I was there.

I was supposed to be there. I almost might have maybe seen you!
But no, I went to Rosemary's Baby at Film Forum instead. I'll probably catch a Wednesday screening of Slumdog.

You should have gone!

It was incredibly packed though, I got there an hour and fifteen minutes early and there was already a huge line.

Let's see...

Juno
Michael Clayton
The Departed
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Crash
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Lost in Translation
Mystic River
In the Bedroom
Chocolat
Traffic
American Beauty
The Insider
The Sixth Sense

Right?

I thought Juno took place some time between 93-94.

I'm a Milk believer now.

the fact that it passed pissed a lot of people off - and I'm guessing much of Hollywood is among this "a lot of people" - it definitely boosts its chances.

Yeah, it's going to help more than having it defeated would have.

I'm seeing it tomorrow. Free screening at UCLA.

Where the f are the Doubt reviews... didn't it screen like over a week ago

The Wrestler is a BANDD, which is my acronym for "Best Actor(ess) Nomination Delivery Device" which might bring along with it a screenplay or other random nods, but that's where the buzz is, the performance.

Films like Transamerica fall into this category.

Yeah but so do Ray/Capote/The Queen

Why the fuck was this not submitted by Sweden?!

http://64.14.20.205/m/lat_den_ratte_komma_in/