Variety's in on Frost/Nixon btw

http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117938 ... id=31&cs=1

It's slightly positive, he calls it effective and praises Langella and Sheen. Says it starts out a little dry but builds strongly towards the middle and end. Definitely starting to look more like it'll stop at the acting and maybe screenplay noms, though.

HR

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/fil ... &rid=11822

Can't get much of a read of whether he's thumbs up or thumbs down, his main statement seems to be that it's like a boxing movie. Seems to praise the acting again and says Howard shows skill but no flair.

Couple more reviews:

http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/ ... 945760.ece (good)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2008/oct ... lmfestival (bad)

We can probably count it out of BP at this point

The roulette will turn red eventually, it's only odds... In the next five to six movies we get reactions to, one will blow everyone's balls off. Milk, Australia, Doubt, The Soloist, The Reader, Revolutionary Road... the only question is which one. Or something will come out of left field. Maybe Stephen Frears will move Cheri back to 2008 at the last minute.

Let's face it. Pixar won't pull it out.

I'm not really sure if Doubt is supposed to be kind of dark-funny, but the trailer did come off that way. Something about the expressions and deliveries and one liners, I dunno. Like...

"The dragon is hungry"

"I can fight you" ... "YOU WILL LOSE"

"You blew out my light!"

And I don't know what to think of Amy Adams' character. With that being said, I'll take those juicy lines over extreme melodrama and people crying the entire film cough cough Revolutionary Road

The Reader has so many issues at the moment, I just don't see it making it big time with the awards.

Atonement seems like it barely made it last year and Cold Mountain missed. As both can be seen as sweeping love stories, that doesn't bode well for Australia, however I really really hope it'll make it.

The Soloist doesn't look like it'll strike a chord.


I think Doubt will probably get excellent reviews, something similar to Capote. I could see 95+% at RT even, a lot of praise for the screenplay and acting and an Oscar nom. But, hell, I don't think Doubt is taking this home. Not BP.

That still leaves me with Benjamin Button, TDK and Revolutionary Road.

If Revolutionary Road, The Soloist, Australia AND Milk all don't deliver...I think it'll be time to start considering Happy Go Lucky as a BP nominee, heh.

I think The Wrestler and Slumdog Millionaire both look better and better as more players drop, as they're solidified in terms of quality and people liking them. I'd give the former the advantage from its supporting noms, with Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Song, and Editing (if Cinderella Man got one) all looking good, and Screenplay and Cinematography also looking at least possible.

Yes, with a year as weak as this, The Wrestler should get in. But then again, this will never be a big grosser and it won't actually WIN BP.

The Wrestler, Slumdog Millionaire and even Rachel Getting Married/Happy-Go-Lucky just got their chances increased, since they're the only films that matched/even surpassed general expectations so far. At least one of these should be a BP nominee.

Fuck the Weinsteins.

I'm not surprised by The Road's rumored move. It's already mid-October and there isn't a trailer or a poster yet.

See you next year, Roadie...

Viggo can be pulled out of the game for this year.

Neither Happy Go Lucky nor Rachel Getting Married will be nominated for Best Picture.

I agree, I think they're too small.

Yes, and after seeing both... they are way too indie.

Alot of things have to go wrong with the current competition and alot of things have to in favor of RGM with indie awards for it to even have a chance. Happy go Lucky has no chance.

Fuck Miramax on the Road move. Bastards. I'm guessing Reader doesn't get in either.

I really do think WALL-E can get in now. So many films are falling off the radar.

Current predictions:

1. The Dark Knight (it's really the surest nominee right now)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (I'm concerned with how much this will connect with audiences, but I don't see how Fincher could fuck it up.)
3. Milk (looks damned good, and it's important)
4. Slumdog Millionaire (big praise, done by a director who hasn't been given props yet, great concept)
5. WALL-E (the year's looking weak enough, and it's still the best reviewed film of the year. Just needs a nudge.)
Alternatives: The Wrestler (made a splash, but I think it's more a multiple-major-nom film that doesn't get in), Revolutionary Road (if it's really good, but the Academy is getting bored with these kinds of projects), The Reader (good director, studio difficulties), The Road (probably being pushed to '09, waiting for confirmation), Australia (doubt it'll go much of anywhere, but if it hits, it'll hit hard), Doubt (too stagey, but it'll probably be quality), Happy-Go-Lucky (not big enough), Rachel Getting Married (not big enough), Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood cocksuckery)

Road was never going to be a contender.

I heard some bad buzz about early screenings for The Road, there's a group over at CHUD who saw it and agreed it was a mess. That's hardly solid proof mind you, but with the move to 2009 and considering Harvey was in the attendance for that screening and the reaction he witnessed might've contributed to the announcement coming out shortly later, it's ominous.

We can now count The Soloist out as well: http://www.incontention.com/?p=2409

With the trailer and poster already out, I really can't say I saw that one coming.

Well then... Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder! lol

Wow... I thought the holidays was a perfect place for it in terms of being succesful.

Best Supporting Actor is such a joke now.

WOW, The Soloist probably does really suck then.


Anyway, competition is getting smaller and smaller, but I bet there will still be at least 1-2 more of these 90+% at RT flicks.

That's the most depressing news I've heard all day.

From what I've read/heard people in the biz really REALLY like Slumdog Millionaire. I still have a hard time seeing how it can get more than three nominations (Picture, Director, Screenplay), but that's what I thought about Juno, and look what happened there. Either way, from the sounds of it it's Searchlight's big push for the fall, and with three Picture nominations in four years, they are not to be underestimated, especially when armed with a charming film.

I'm leaning towards something like this:

1. The Dark Knight (It's chances for me are really at like, 54%, but that's still easily the strongest we have)
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Milk
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (I'm getting a little worried though...?)
5. Doubt (A mid-level studio film filler nominee)

It's certainly a very weird year so far.

I think The Wrestler's the indie of the year. And yes, it's not getting more than three nominations unless it gets really huge public support.