Eh, underwhelming or not, at least some of the movies mentioned so far WILL figure in this race. I'm most certain about Doubt because it'll likely get enormous acting praise.

And The Dark Knight isn't a lock. I predic it, but honestly, a comic book adaptation will probably never be a BP nom lock. I thik it is the most likely nominee at THIS point.


Oh and there's still lots of other films left. I don't think the year actually will be that weak.

I guess it's time for another Oscar analysis thread by me (haven't done one in 2-3 years or so, but this year's race is actually pretty intriguing and uneven at this point.

I'm pretty sure Doubt will get in too. Because it has the best trailer of the year so far.

New prediction after Toronto and the trailers

The Dark Knight
The Soloist
The Wrestler
Gran Torino
Frost/Nixon

That's why I said "besides" good sir.

Ugh. I'm failing all my exams.

I'm just ecstatic that we're going to be getting new movies from some of my favorite directors:

Richard Linklater
Danny Boyle
Darren Aronofsky

plus offerings from Baz Luhrman, Steven Soderbergh, David Fincher, Sam Mendes, Gus Van Sant...

whoever wins, we win.

I'm not feeling The Wrestler. Just not. Screenplay and Rourke will play a role, yes. Maybe it'll get a Directing nom too.....but BP? I don't really think so.

I agree with Lecter, Cannes is overrated. Brad Pitt won the actor award last year there, and had no impact on the American awards however.

"The Wrestler" doesn't feel like a BP movie. "Million Dollar Baby" was something else.

Well I have Rourke winning at this point, so combine that with a nom for Tomei, a screenplay, and audiences reacting pretty well to it (I think it would please the crowds), and I threw it in.

I think The Wrestler will be nominated for BP but not BD.

I say one thing - if Eastwood is getting an acting nom for Gran Torino he wins. The Academy loves him, we all know that and it's very likely that this will be his very last shot at an acting Oscar.

I could understand if you said no BP without a directing nod. But Lecter, once you say Screenplay/Actor/Director you may as well say BP.

Supporting Actress is also possible and maybe likely considering the category looks weak again. Tomei is riding a good wave from Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

The only film I've confident in this point is TDK.

Milk, I dunno... I guess it's just a gut feeling that it'll be the "too obvious" film that disappoints, I definitley wasn't as gonzo over the trailer as everyone else, I certainly didn't have the same feeling as after the No Country and Blood trailers where there was no fucking way these movies weren't delivering in some way or form.

I liked Rachel Getting Married a couple weeks ago, until the reaction from Toronto and Venice wasn't as raving as I thought after the HR/Variety reviews, and most importantly after I found out it's not a comedy... oddly enough I think a lot of its success was based on the presumption that it'd fill the niche comedy slot. Not as much room for a little Americana drama.

[quote="Shack"]The only film I've confident in this point is TDK.[quote]

Strangely enough, I'm feeling the same way. As far as a win goes, it doesn't have much precedence, but we've seen huge audience/critical/financial hits land here before in spite of being genre pics (Star Wars, ET, Raiders, LOTR trilogy). As long as the critics and the guilds don't forget about it at the end of the year, it's in great shape for at least a nomination.

Hmm, Vera Drake? (Screenplay/Actress/Director)

Yeah, it isn't too uncommon. That's the situation I see too.

The Dark Knight will be forgotten sans Ledger and a few categories that have real precedence, like Wally Pfister for Cinematography. Maybe the Sound categories or Makeup will extend their Oscar goodwill but I honestly still do not see Batman getting in big time.

The largest grossing film in 10+ years mixed with heavy campaigning isn't going to be forgotten.

Indeed. This will probably be WB's racehorse for the year.

TDK isnt a dark horse, its a front runner. Especially as this years year ending films dont look to be as strong as last year.

Shack you should be used to this by now. Can't look at summer buzzed films in September and say they are out, when they have a whole campaign of DVDs and madness to come at the end of the year.

Huh, were you referring to me or did you mix up my post with junio's. I didn't think I implied any summer buzzed films being counted out.

Christian Bale for best supporting?

Wasn't sure if this should consitute its own thread, but apparantley there's buzz about Ricky Gervais hosting

http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2008/09/ ... rvais.html

Would be fantastic. Other than the fact that he's funny, it'd give the guy a nice career boost.

I'm just not feeling it for Frost/Nixon beyond acting. It's Ron Howard! Replace it with TDK.