The Changeling seems to be a strong contender now. Jolie should be nominated too, especially after her outright snub last year.

Yeah it has. Interestingly Ive read that they changed the name of the film to 'The Exchange' hmm

What are Indy's chances at the Oscars? I think some sound nominations are in, but visuals? I don't know anymore.

Are there any really flashy effects in the movie? The Academy doesn't pay much attention to practical or subtle effects, unfortunately. I'm thinking Iron Man/Potter/one of the fantasy flicks in December (Imaginarium? if it's good...), maybe Batman if it has any difficult set pieces. But Sound noms? Sure.

I don't think Narnia will pull a Golden Compass this year. It has several months more to be forgotten.

I wouldn't count Prince Caspian out. It has the showiest effects of the year to date, so it could be a winner.

Hmm, Indy had the nuclear blast and the flying saucer which both looked good IMO. But the jungle scene has not so good effects at times. Then again, that didn't stop Narnia from being nominated.

I'm thinking Indy will snatch a couple of noms. Two Sound noms sound good....how about Score? Is there enough new stuff?

I don't think Indy's score has enough new material...but then again they kind of just do whatever they want for score (TWBB becoming ineligible for no reason even though it had more new material than Babel, which one the previous year).

Looks like Blindness really sucks hard.

http://64.14.20.205/m/1188215-blindness/


The Duchess is alright, but Knightley's performance is really praised all-around.

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009493-duchess/

Not necessarily yet. I believe all 6 reviews were posted on the Cannes version since they were already there a couple of weeks ago when I checked. The Toronto version is supposedly much better with the re-cutting.

Is TDK eligible for Score?

Hmm, I read a review from TIFF and it was still supposedly bad.

I kinda have to agree with you here. I was mostly underwhelmed by all those.

honestly, i haven't seen one trailer of any of the oscar bait movies that I really loved. Revo Road was solid but that really isn't saying much.

W isn't even a contender. The first Frost/Nixon trailer was decent but again, nothing outstanding.

That's exactly what Ratatouille was having.

But it faced what is looking to have been MUCH tougher competition...and it still got close.

If this year really stays the wasteland it's been so far, WALL-E is back in this game.

I still can't believe that Clayton got nominated last year, no one besides the actors was raving about this film.

Dark Knight is a lock right now, Benjamin button looks good too, Milk should take the biopic/actor spot (Ray, Capote,...)

At the moment:
TDK 50%
Milk 40%

There isn't a single spot close to locked.

The Dark Knight has huge boxoffice + critical/mainstream great response. That's why it's a lock to be nominated. It's that simple.

The major backing that WB will pour out for Dark Knight will most likely lock it up for a nomination. That was actually the only thing that was of any worry and could've made or broken its chances at a nod, now that it's obvious WB is going to go all out with DK and the weak slate of films it would be quite a shocker if it isn't nominated (hard to believe I'm saying such a thing, but it's a total monster)

Theres a total pattern going on with all the other conteders this year, they all look like acting showcases...where are the actual movies? I really think it's between Benjamin Button and Dark Knight for director and picture.

I think TDK is more like 95%. It's still a superhero movie and going 100% on anything has never worked out, hell people were calling Diving Bell and Into the Wild locks like 2 weeks before nom-day last year (or in the former's case, like the day before), and Atonement was having that word dropped lots too, in the end it did get in, but it was by the skin of its teeth. But yeah, it should get in. It has 500 mil, a Best Supporting Actor win, Ebert's support, and it'll get like 7 nominations away from BP and BD.

If the year is as weak as loyal think's it's going to be, TDK will get in no doubt about it.

But as much as TDK has going for it, it has a lot going against it (besides not being that good).
Also, I'm not sure exactly who in the academy the film will have played well enough to get a #1 spot on the ballot, besides people associated with the film.

I don't think the year will be as weak as it sounds, I mean even if Changeling, Doubt, and Revolutionary Road fail (which I think they will, their trailers were shit), there'll no doubt be a number of films where we're like "Whoa, where did that motherfucker come from?"

And even disregarding those, there's still a lot of contenders left. The Reader has more going for it on paper than any other movie in the race, IMO. Daldry is a VERY capable director, it has Winslet, it's a WWII court drama. The Last Station has been woefully under talked about, it's a Tolstoy biopic with a massive cast. Shanghai could still be released this year. Gran Torino freakin scares me. And so forth.

I'm siding with Loyal on Wall-E, it's not dead yet.

TDK is 100%. It's WB's big kahuna this year.

So wait, everyone's now back to thinking WALL-E is a Best Picture contender because they personally thought the latest crop of trailers sucked? Jesus y'all are desperate.

I don't think they'll blow away the Academy, but I'd probably still rank all of them above WALL-E at this point. The whole "Pulling it out of Animated Film" strategy could save it, but TDK stole most of all of its thunder.

Also:



Man lacking brain, donations suggested.