1. 300
2. Spider-man 3
3. POTC 3
4. F4:rotss
5. DH4
6. Transformers
7. HP5
6. TBU
7. Beowulf
8. TGC

I say Transformers, Beowulf and 300

Transformers
At World's End
300

Transformers

300


Golden Compass / At World's End



I'm guessing TGC will be the last one, as they love WETA and considering the Oscars chose fantasy franchise starter (Narnia) over epic trilogy-ender (ROTS) in 2005, the same could definitely happen again. Box office means very little here, especially since it's so close to Oscar voting anyways.

Blah, this branch nominated Spider-Man rather than Minority Report in 2002. Gross.

The VFX wins have been pretty perfect, though.

WETA has gone 4/4 with their fantasy films, and that's talking about wins, not just nominations. That alone might be enough to push it into the last slot over AWE or, if the crazy-epic style is a turn-off for the Academy, 300.

Spider-man 3 lurks in the corner as a #5 contender. It could get in off franchise power alone, not to mention its box office topping the year, but the weak response definitely will hurt it.

Pirates, Transformers and 300

Ehh....this is kinda sorta the least interesting Oscar category for me....even less than Sound Mixing.

With Golden Compass disappointing, the 300/POTC3/Transformers trio looks strong. A strong Top 3, if you ask me, 300's other qualities be damned.

Yeah, its chances are off, but that throws the dynamic in dissaray. 300 always seemed to be in the background--but I figured they would go for a non-sequel trio. It's gonna have to include Spider-Man and Pirates if it's going to have either. The latter might be weaker because there's art direction and costumes to go for as well.

Pirates, Transformers (will win this anyway!) and Spider-Man 3 are my guesses. I think 300 will be dismissed like Sin City was as well.

if they went logical

300
Pirates
Transformers

but who knows

A Golden Compass nomination would be gross.

1. Transformers
2. Spider-Man 3
3. The Golden Compass
4. 300
5. Beowulf
6. The Bourne Ultimatum

I'm really back and forth with Golden Compass and 300.

Beowulf reallly deserves to be nominated even though I'm sure it won't. Transformers is almost assured the win.

Transformers, 300, & Beowulf

ummm Weta didn't do the sfx of TGC!! Rythm and Hues and couple of small vfx studios did the sfx.

well from what i have heard it is in the running for best vfx. Whether it makes it to bakeoff (7) and then final 3 is still a question.

Pirates 3 will win no prob

well, AWE's reaction with the public wasn't close to lovely [and this is coming from someone who liked it a lot more than DMC, which got a better overall reaction with people], whereas in the real world, all I have heard are positive things about TGC [even if it has only come from non-readers of the book]. Weta + recent release date + very strong worldwide performance + generally solid WOM probably = a nom for TGC. If it was a GREAT film, it would take the award away from Transformers, even if its visuals weren't as spectacular as could be.

Now, 300 could conceivably win the award, and at the same time, miss out on a nomination completely. They completely overlooked Sin City, but that put up 1/3 the BO that 300 did, not to mention it wasn't as flashy. If 300's in, the last spot will be a fight between TGC/AWE with SM3 a bit behind...if 300 isn't in, TGC would be my #2, and the last slot would probably go to AWE, with SM3 as a possibility.