I think these are another major awards that need a thread. They are pretty mainstream, so they can be considered rather good Oscar predictors.

Here's how they matched last year (Oscar nominees in bold):

Best Picture:

The Departed
Babel
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93


Best Actor:

Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Ryan Gosling (Half-Nelson)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)


Best Actress:

Penélope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)


Best Supporting Actor:

Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Adam Beach (Flags of our Fathers)
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland)


Best Supporting Actress:

Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Emma Thompson (Stranger than Fiction)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)


Best Director:

Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Paul Greengrass (United 93)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)


They matched most things, I'd say.

Dec 11th, methinks.

My predictions:

Best Picture:

American Gangster
Eastern Promises
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
Hairspray
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Gone Baby Gone


Best Actor:

Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead or The Savages)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)


Best Actress:

Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Amy Adams (Enhanted)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Maron Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)


Best Supporting Actor:

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
John Travolta (Hairspray)


Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Saoirse Roran (Atonement)
Romola Garai (Atonement)


Best Director:

Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Ridley Scott (American Gangster)
PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Joe Wright (Atonement)
Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)


Best Screenplay

No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
Gone Baby Gone


Best Ensemble

Hairspray
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Juno
Sweeney Todd

Yes and by the end of that frame we'll get a pretty clear picture of this year's Oscars.

Into the Wild got a 90 from them and has good momentum, so BFCA isn't going to leave it out.

Once is more tricky, but given they haven't given out many 90+ scores this year (especially comparing last), hard to see it miss out with a 91.

American Gangster only got an 86, and it's not quite similar to the Memoirs of a Geisha and Phantom of the Opera situation, where they weren't sure about the buzz and included it to be safe, so don't think it will get in. Charlie Wilson's War fits that slot better.

They never graded Gone Baby Gone, so I replace it and either Michael Clayton or Hairspray for the two above.

Going to be interesting to see where they put Bourne, their highest score this year by far (94). Both Ratatouille and Sicko have their own categories, so they are not going to show up in the best film list.

Juno got a 93! A serious threat to win here now.

87 for Atonement. Look more and more likely a nomination-but-no-win candidate at the Oscar.

It has always kind of amazed me how accurate the BFCA's are with respect to predicting Best Picture at the Oscars. Failure of making the top 10 films at BFCA is never a good sign. It has consistently had all 5 eventual Oscar Best Picture nominees in their top 10 films, except for a couple slip years in which it still had 4 out of 5 correct.

2006 - 5/5 nominees
2005 - 5/5 nominees
2004 - 5/5 nominees
2003 - 5/5 nominees
2002 - 5/5 nominees
2001 - 4/5 nominees (Gosford Park missing)
2000 - 4/5 nominees (Chocolat anomoly)
1999 - 5/5 nominees
1998 - 5/5 nominees
1997 - 5/5 nominees

The BFCA winner for Best Picture also went on to win the Oscar Best Picture about 50% of the time.

Peace,
Mike

Taking into account xiayun's comments.

My predictions:

Best Picture:

American Gangster
Eastern Promises
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
Hairspray
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild

Best Actor:

Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead or The Savages)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)


Best Actress:

Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Amy Adams (Enhanted)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Maron Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)


Best Supporting Actor:

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
John Travolta (Hairspray)


Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Saoirse Roran (Atonement)
Romola Garai (Atonement)


Best Director:

Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Ridley Scott (American Gangster)
PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Joe Wright (Atonement)
Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)


Best Screenplay

No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
Eastern Promises

Best Ensemble

Hairspray
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Juno
Sweeney Todd

VH1? Random.

I think I'm gonna try whipping up some predictions.

Best Picture
American Gangster
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
Hairspray
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Best Direction
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Ethan Coen/Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joe Wright, Atonement
(#6: Ridley Scott, American Gangster)

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
(#6: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises)

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Keira Knightly, Atonement
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
(#6: Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart)

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
(#6: Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd)

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Romola Garai, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
(#6: Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

Best Screenplay
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
The Savages
(#6: The Bourne Ultimatum)

Knocked Up and Ratatouille would be great, but genre bias could kill them (I'd give my left nut for a Laeslie Mann mention though, god I love her). The only reason I'm predicting Bourne is because it still has their highest score of the year, and NBR removed some of the stigma of noting the film.

These are always fun. It's just sad that every year the host has to announce "We matched the Oscars 4 out of 5 years!!!! We rock! YEAH!!!! Now on to the awards..."

Here's the ratings

http://www.bfca.org/

94 - Bourne Ultimatum,The
93 - Juno
92 - Sicko
91 - No Country For Old Men
91 - Ratatouille
91 - Once
90 - Into the Wild
89 - Eastern Promises
88 - Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,The
88 - Waitress
88 - A Mighty Heart
87 - Atonement
86 - American Gangster
87 - Michael Clayton
87 - Hairspray

I forget, was this the beginning of the "Ohno, Crash!!?" run in 05?

What the, for some reason I had this thread made, then I saw Lecter already had a thread and meant to post that in there, but I must've posted this one by mistake or whatever. Yeah, merge.

I suspect we'll create a different thread once they start announcing the nominees?

I say, whoever ends up getting the noms first, just post a new thread. Makes it easier for me. It's always nice to have the nominees/winners listed in the actual first post of the thread, with discussion on it immediately following, no old unrelated discussion in the way.

Peace,
Mike

I didn't predict because it seems to good to be true, but with Chicago's nom, it really does seem possible...maybe?

Finally some Rat love....