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 Netflix will be dead by 2030 
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Post Netflix will be dead by 2030
If KJ somehow survives that long I will bump this thread when it happens. It may happen before then anyways.

12 billion+ in debt
Rising competition at a cheaper price
Losing Friends/The Office
Damaging their originals brand with mediocre quality and cancellations after 2-3 years

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:28 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
I think they keep putting out quality films, at least, the star powered ones.

They'll get to a point where they release the films in theaters for 2 weeks or something, get those profits, and then stream.

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:40 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
They will be fine. They are building a huge library and that is beyond just US centric. Friends/office could have short term impact but they will other content.

Also I expect Universal/AT&T to struggle with competing with other big guys. I expect a consolidation to happen.

Netflix still has the best platform when it comes to streaming.

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:43 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
If anything someone bigger buys Netflix and keeps the brand going but as a stand-alone company their days are numbered if they think they can burn cash forever.

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:20 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Don’t they make like a billion a month? How the hell are they 12 billion in debt

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Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:11 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
The debt news is always a shock to me. I figured the biggest name in streaming would have the spend/earn numbers figured out by now, but doesn't sound like it.

If the situation is that dire, it probably would spell disaster, but no other streaming service is a viable alternative. Everyone else is lesser. Hulu, Amazon Prime, CBS All Access, whatever else is on the go.

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Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:23 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Not a chance. If anything, it'll be an even bigger, more multifaceted version of what is now.

The debt doesn't matter: certain business models require big debt/investment to begin (Tesla is a far more extreme example, even though one of their biggest issues is actually keeping up with a surging customer demand; high-demand companies require big debt to get off the ground at first) --- more important is the net income after expenses, which factors in debt/risk management and acquisitional growth potential, etc.

Where Netflix has been clever, is in anticipating Disney and Time Warner's content upheaval to their own platforms, by producing enough high quality stuff to challenge for marketshare while also creating and embedding a stronger viewer habit than free-to-air and cable were never able to. Current estimates put the number of services the average household is willing to pay for at 3, or roughly $45 a month --- and you can guarantee that "Netflix and chill" is more culturally intertwined with the streaming market than any other catchphrase will ever be; and the position it'll have within that $45 household allocation only grows with each new TV series it releases.

The other thing about the company is Reed Hastings: he's a math guy, is just way smarter than any other media CEO, if not most of them combined. The fact the company has jumped to a market cap that's not only bigger than Time Warner, but big enough to compare with the entirety of AT&T - in less than 10 years - hasn't been a fluke:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap

Netflix achieved that while somehow managing to change from physical DVD distribution (facilitated by the most advanced supply-and-demand algorithm in history), to online streaming (which has a whole different set of genius-requiring challenges to execute), which I'd say speaks for itself.


Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:21 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Gamaur wrote:
Not a chance. If anything, it'll be an even bigger, more multifaceted version of what is now.

The debt doesn't matter: certain business models require big debt/investment to begin (Tesla is a far more extreme example, even though one of their biggest issues is actually keeping up with a surging customer demand; high-demand companies require big debt to get off the ground at first) --- more important is the net income after expenses, which factors in debt/risk management and acquisitional growth potential, etc.

Where Netflix has been clever, is in anticipating Disney and Time Warner's content upheaval to their own platforms, by producing enough high quality stuff to challenge for marketshare while also creating and embedding a stronger viewer habit than free-to-air and cable were never able to. Current estimates put the number of services the average household is willing to pay for at 3, or roughly $45 a month --- and you can guarantee that "Netflix and chill" is more culturally intertwined with the streaming market than any other catchphrase will ever be; and the position it'll have within that $45 household allocation only grows with each new TV series it releases.

The other thing about the company is Reed Hastings: he's a math guy, is just way smarter than any other media CEO, if not most of them combined. The fact the company has jumped to a market cap that's not only bigger than Time Warner, but big enough to compare with the entirety of AT&T - in less than 10 years - hasn't been a fluke:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap

Netflix achieved that while somehow managing to change from physical DVD distribution (facilitated by the most advanced supply-and-demand algorithm in history), to online streaming (which has a whole different set of genius-requiring challenges to execute), which I'd say speaks for itself.


Very well put. They are well ahead of other platform and they tech and recommendation engine will also be ahead. Only true competitor who is a media and tech company is Amazon and they have foot in too many pie. Among true streaming firms Netflix is the only tech play. Just look at Hulu and Netflix experiences.

Plus most streaming firms have narrow(US centric). Netflix is making content for global audience. That should help them long term as well.

Plus as you said its not one winner take it all. I could see 3-4 succeed. But there will be some consolidation as I cant see every studio succeed as media firms.

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Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:07 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Gamaur wrote:
Not a chance. If anything, it'll be an even bigger, more multifaceted version of what is now.

The debt doesn't matter: certain business models require big debt/investment to begin (Tesla is a far more extreme example, even though one of their biggest issues is actually keeping up with a surging customer demand; high-demand companies require big debt to get off the ground at first) --- more important is the net income after expenses, which factors in debt/risk management and acquisitional growth potential, etc.

Where Netflix has been clever, is in anticipating Disney and Time Warner's content upheaval to their own platforms, by producing enough high quality stuff to challenge for marketshare while also creating and embedding a stronger viewer habit than free-to-air and cable were never able to. Current estimates put the number of services the average household is willing to pay for at 3, or roughly $45 a month --- and you can guarantee that "Netflix and chill" is more culturally intertwined with the streaming market than any other catchphrase will ever be; and the position it'll have within that $45 household allocation only grows with each new TV series it releases.

The other thing about the company is Reed Hastings: he's a math guy, is just way smarter than any other media CEO, if not most of them combined. The fact the company has jumped to a market cap that's not only bigger than Time Warner, but big enough to compare with the entirety of AT&T - in less than 10 years - hasn't been a fluke:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap

Netflix achieved that while somehow managing to change from physical DVD distribution (facilitated by the most advanced supply-and-demand algorithm in history), to online streaming (which has a whole different set of genius-requiring challenges to execute), which I'd say speaks for itself.


Netflix's plan was definitely to go into debt for decades and then flip the switch, but it seems like that plan relies on the subscribers keep going up. If the subscribers start dropping because of losing some of their biggest shows and higher competition, then the plan no longer makes sense. And if they aren't sweating the dollars, how come they are raising their price and totally changing their cancellation policy (from never cancelling everything to cancelling almost everything)

Their algorithms are definitely their strength, but it was a bigger advantage 10-15 years ago when their competition was Blockbuster who were tech n00bs. Disney have had a lot more time to catch up to them in that area, plus with the way social media spreads buzz for shows these days is it as important as in the early Netflix days to recommend things to people?

When Netflix becomes closer to a pure original content service, the competition is going to be severe compared to how they've had it. If they have worse shows, waste more money on them, and charge people more for it, it won't go well. For when was the last time Netflix intentionally created a blockbuster show? Their biggest hit (Stranger Things) was an accident they did not market much before it came out. When they throw a bunch of money at something like Lost In Space or The Get Up It often fails. Series of Unfortunate Events seems like it did ok I guess.

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Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:20 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_o ... by_Netflix

Na bra. It's already the greediest new-content monster, well before it's had to step things up for the reasons you've said.


Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:49 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
I'm scrolling through the Netflix app as nd it's nothing but Netflix damn series. Lord, I just want to see something for 2 hours and that's it but I'm getting nothing but promotions for tv series or series trash. Hate their damn app

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:40 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
People complain ALL THE TIME how they don't promote their shows, etc etc etc.

Now y'all are complaining they're making it too easy to find their own shows.

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Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:58 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Apple+ will be 4.99 on November 1st and launch with these titles

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See
The epic drama starring Jason Momoa and Alfre Woodard is set 600 years in the future after a virus has decimated humankind and rendered the remaining population blind. When all humanity has lost the sense of sight, humans must adapt and find new ways to survive.

The Morning Show
A cutthroat drama starring and executive produced by Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston, and starring Steve Carell, explores the world of morning news and the ego, ambition and the misguided search for power behind the people who help America wake up in the morning.

Dickinson
A darkly comedic coming-of-age story, explores the constraints of society, gender and family through the lens of rebellious young poet, Emily Dickinson.

For All Mankind
A new series from Ronald D. Moore, imagines what would have happened if the global space race never ended and the space program remained the cultural centerpiece of America’s hopes and dreams.

Helpsters
A new children’s series from the makers of “Sesame Street,” stars Cody and a team of vibrant monsters who love to help solve problems. It all starts with a plan.

Snoopy in Space
A new original from Peanuts Worldwide and DHX Media, takes viewers on a journey with Snoopy as he follows his dreams to become an astronaut. Together, Snoopy, Charlie Brown and the Peanuts crew take command of the International Space Station and explore the moon and beyond.

Ghostwriter
A reinvention of the beloved original series, follows four kids who are brought together by a mysterious ghost in a neighborhood bookstore, and must team up to release fictional characters from works of literature.

The Elephant Queen
An acclaimed documentary film and cinematic love letter to a species on the verge of extinction, follows a majestic matriarch elephant and her herd on an epic journey of life, loss and homecoming.

Oprah Winfrey
Winfrey joins the world’s most compelling authors in conversation as she builds a vibrant, global book club community and other projects to connect with people around the world and share meaningful ways to create positive change.


Looks good

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Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:56 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Who besides folks getting new Apple phones is going to really sign up just to explore unbelievably limited content even for 5$? Maybe if they include a year with other apple purchases like the apple tv, a macbook, itouch, ipad stuff like that.

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Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:50 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
That’s exactly what they’re doing nghtvsn. Seems like this is more of an extra for the new iphone than a real video service.


Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:09 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
nghtvsn wrote:
Who besides folks getting new Apple phones is going to really sign up just to explore unbelievably limited content even for 5$? Maybe if they include a year with other apple purchases like the apple tv, a macbook, itouch, ipad stuff like that.


The key is that it's only $5, you only need 1 show you like for it to be worth it

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Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:51 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Eh, I wouldn't pay $60/year for one show. I'm already paying like $72/year for DC Universe, and I get a few great shows and tons of comics and old movies and animated shows.

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Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:58 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Actually they should just combine it with Apple Music. Boom you have a large user base integrated into your phony streaming content.

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Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:00 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030


RIP Netflix

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Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:10 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Looks great but I still think original content from Netflix is way better than this. Plus Netflix's global content is picking up which is a big deal.


Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:03 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
On the positive side, Netflix just got Seinfeld for 5 years starting in 2021

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Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:04 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Ah, they took that from Hulu. Netflix must have paid a pretty penny for that show. I wonder if the Seinfeld gang gets a few tenths of a % of that deal.

Quote:
While the exact price tag was not disclosed, Netflix is said to have paid “far more” than the $500 million that NBCUniversal paid for “The Office” and the $425 million that WarnerMedia shelled out for “Friends,” the Los Angeles Times said, citing anonymous sources.

"...CBS, Seinfeld and his co-creator, Larry David. All will share in the revenue from the Netflix deal after Sony receives a significant percentage as the show’s distributor."


https://nypost.com/2019/09/16/netflix-b ... -seinfeld/

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Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:51 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
NBCUniversal streaming service will now be called Peacock

Quote:
NBCUniversal’s upcoming streaming service finally has a name — Peacock — and a whole bunch of newly announced programming. The long-in-the-works service will launch next April, anchored by more than 15,000 hours of content from the entertainment conglomerate’s TV and movie vaults. In addition to a previously announced deal to take back The Office from Netflix in 2021, NBCU Tuesday said that starting next fall, Peacock will also be the exclusive streaming home for the Universal TV–produced Parks and Recreation, which currently streams on Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video.

Library titles

Beyond the exclusive deals for Parks and The Office, Peacock will be populated with dozens of existing TV shows and movies at launch. Many will be former NBC shows, including SNL, Cheers, 30 Rock, Frasier, Friday Night Lights, Parenthood, Superstore, Will & Grace, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Others will come from NBCU properties such as USA and Bravo (Battlestar Galactica, Chrisley Knows Best, Top Chef, Psych, Royal Pains, Monk, and Keeping Up With the Kardashians), while some aired on other networks but were produced by NBCU companies (Downton Abbey, Bates Motel, and House). Interestingly, Peacock has also licensed streaming runs of Married … With Children and King of Queens, which were produced by Sony.

Comedy

The big news here — beyond the Ruffin show and the Saved by the Bell and Punky Brewster revivals — is Schur and Helms teaming for Rutherford Falls, in which, per a Peacock press release, “a small town in upstate New York is turned upside down when local legend and town namesake Nathan Rutherford (Helms) fights the moving of a historical statue.” Helms and Schur are co-creating the show with Superstore writer Sierra Teller Ornelas. Also newly announced is a pilot order for an odd-couple-esque comedy from writer Kara Brown and director/executive producer Rashida Jones, with Jada Pinkett Smith attached to star. As previously announced, season three of A.P. Bio will run on Peacock.

Drama

The headline hour on the Peacock slate is the Esmail-led Battlestar reboot, which will also feature Chad Hamilton as an executive producer. The streamer didn’t announce plot or cast specifics for the project. Peacock will also be home to a previously announced TV adaptation of Brave New World, a show based on the podcast Dr. Death starring Christian Slater and Alec Baldwin, and the Esmail-produced limited series Angelyn starring Emmy Rossum.

Film

No details yet, but NBCU says Peacock will feature “premium original films and animated series” based on Universal and DreamWorks Animation properties, as well as a bevy of titles from the company’s film library, including E.T., Jaws, Field of Dreams, Shrek, Mamma Mia!, Back to the Future, Bridesmaids, American Pie, and the Bourne, Despicable Me, and Fast & Furious franchises.

Unscripted

No details, but Peacock says it’s working on a Real Housewives spinoff. There’ll also be an SNL-themed docuseries called Who Wrote That?, which will look at how classic sketches came to be, and an unspecified talk show from Jimmy Fallon.

Spanish-language programming

One-fifth of Peacock’s 15,000 hours of content will come from NBCU-owned Telemundo, including a new comedy called Armas de Mujer and an original series from the creators of La Reina del Sur.



https://www.vulture.com/2019/09/nbc-str ... acock.html

Looks good. Absolute killer comedy library (The Office/Frasier/Cheers/Will and Grace/Parks and Rec/30 Rock/etc.), a new Mike Schur show, good movie selection

HBO Max officially gets Big Bang Theory

Quote:
The comedy, created by Chuck Lorre and Bill Prady, has also extended its TBS syndication pact through 2028.
Holy bazinga!

In what is easily a record-setting five-year deal, HBO Max has secured the exclusive domestic streaming rights to The Big Bang Theory. As part of the deal with Warner Bros. Television, the multicamera comedy, created by Chuck Lorre and Bill Prady, has also extended its syndication deal with TBS and will air on the WarnerMedia-owned basic cable network through 2028.

All 12 seasons of the comedy starring Jim Parsons, Johnny Galecki and Kaley Cuoco will be available to stream for the first time ever on WarnerMedia-backed HBO Max when the direct-to-consumer service launches in spring 2020. (A formal launch date has not yet been determined.)

Sources estimate that the deal, including both the streaming end and syndication extension, is worth billions of dollars. By comparison, HBO Max paid $425 million over five years ($85 million per year) to move mega-hit Friends from Netflix and onto its own platform. (Friends, like Big Bang Theory, is produced by Warners.)


https://variety.com/2019/tv/news/the-bi ... 203338587/

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Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:17 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
What Netflix has that the others don't is that NETFLIX is a global thing and all of.its overseas countries are developing their own shows.

And giving us high quality. Shows like Elite, Dark, Monarca

Too bad most Americans are illiterate and refuse to reading Subtitles. If they ain't reading books how does Netflix make them read Subtitles, lol

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Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:48 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
I just saw a couple tv ads for Apple TV and it was some show called the servant with shyamalana involved and some space race show with somebody . I may have to think more about joining or something

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Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:15 pm
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