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 Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be... 
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Superfreak
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Post Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
the film that tops Titanic in the states this year. Its happening. Not sure how exactly...but it is :thumbsup:

edit: this is how:

*Weekends in bold

11/14-16: 39.8
11/17-20: 17.6
11/21-23: 34.5
11/24-27: 27.8
11/28-30: 28.7
12/1-4: 12.5
12/5-7: 23.0
12/8-11: 10.8
12/12-14: 19.5
12/15-18: 8.1
12/19-21: 24.5
12/22-25: 23
12/26-28: 24.5
12/29-1/1: 19.5
1/2-4: 21.5
1/5-8: 9.9
1/9-11: 19.2
1/12-15: 9.4
1/16-18: 17.0
1/19-22: 8.5
1/23-25: 15.8
1/26-29: 7.6
1/30-2/1: 15
2/2-5: 6.8
2/6-8: 14
2/9-12: 6
2/13-15: 12.8
2/16-19: 5.7
2/20-22: 11.0
2/23-26: 6.8
2/27-3/1: 12.9

Now in a Post-Oscars sweep run...

Total at the moment = 513.6 Million

Film stays in top 10 through May and totals in the 620's :D :yes:

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Last edited by Excel on Wed May 21, 2008 7:12 pm, edited 5 times in total.



Wed May 21, 2008 6:55 pm
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Post Re: Excel Boldly predicts "Australia" to be the film that...
This automatically eliminates all the accurate bold predictions you've made.


Wed May 21, 2008 6:57 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" to be the film that...
Screw it, I am feeling it more than any claim Ive ever made before...this is legit happening :thumbsup:

this aint a club cause noone else would join.

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Wed May 21, 2008 6:58 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Im very sure you were being wishy washy on the Transformers and IRon Man prediction. At times you have said Transformers wont outgross WOTW. I dont need to mention Iron Man thing either because its all in that Mav thread


Wed May 21, 2008 7:02 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
ew, so not going to happen, The Dark Knight will get there first of course.

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Wed May 21, 2008 7:05 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Holy shit, that teaser is officially the most overrated trailer ever.

First off Baz sucks and second his movies are far too odd to really breakout with the mainstream audience. It'll be lucky to hit 100m.

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Wed May 21, 2008 7:07 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
It has nothing to do with the trailer itself in terms of how effective a marketing tool it is. It all has to do with the genre. To top titanic the film has to be a very specific genre with a very specific market. this film is the 1st since titanic itself to meet both, from what I can tell, and whether it tops titanic in the us or not, i think this wil be a HUGE HUGE HUGE MASSIVE break out.

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Wed May 21, 2008 7:14 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Yeah, seriously, the trailer is not that great, people. Calm down.


Wed May 21, 2008 7:15 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
It has nothing to do with the trailer. It has to do with the type of film I see it being and the kind of market it has its disposal for a 6 month period.

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Wed May 21, 2008 7:20 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
after the trailer i saw i predict 40 mil


Wed May 21, 2008 7:30 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
BJs Prediction:
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Opening Day: 28.11m
2nd Day: 28.96m +4%
Opening Wknd: 80.97m - Fri: 28.11m / Sat: 28.96m +4% / Sun: 23.90m -17%
4-Day: 95.54m - Mon: 14.57m -38%
5-Day: 111.87m - Tue: 16.33m +12%
6-Day: 129.02m - Wed: 17.15m +5%
Opening Wk: 140.01m - Thur: 10.99m -35%
2nd Wknd: 80.13m -1% - Fri: 23.85m +116% / Sat: 30.58m +28% / Sun: 25.70m -16%
11-Day: 239.24m - Mon: 19.11m -25%
12-Day: 255.29m - Tue: 16.04m -15%
13-Day: 269.59m - Wed: 14.30m -11%
2nd Wk: 282.36m - Thur: 12.75m -10%
3rd Wknd: 65.90m -17% - Fri: 23.71m +85% / Sat: 23.71m NC / Sun: 18.48m -22%
Wk-1: 140.01m - Wknd: 80.97m | Total: 140.01m
Wk-2: 142.30m - Wknd: 80.13m | Total: 282.36m
Wk-3: 89.50m - Wknd: 65.90m | Total: 371.86m
Wk-4: 70.20m - Wknd: 52.35m | Total: 442.06m
Wk-5: 63.50m - Wknd: 43.95m - 4-Day-Wknd: 53.95m | Total: 505.56m
Wk-6: 40.85m - Wknd: 28.50m | Total: 546.41m
Wk-7: 37.90m - Wknd: 28.90m | Total: 584.31m
Wk-8: 27.15m - Wknd: 21.50m | Total: 611.46m
Wk-9: 28.95m - Wknd: 20.00m - 4-Day-Wknd: 24.20m | Total: 640.41m
Wk-10: 30.95m - Wknd: 20.05m | Total: 671.36m
Wk-11: 30.00m - Wknd: 21.95m | Total: 701.36m
Wk-12: 20.65m - Wknd: 14.95m | Total: 722.01m
Wk-13: 12.95m - Wknd: 8.95m - | Total: 734.96m
Wk-14: 10.70m - Wknd: 6.80m | Total: 745.66m
Wk-15: 10.30m - Wknd: 6.00m | Total: 755.96m
Wk-16: 8.30m - Wknd: 5.30m | Total: 764.26m
Wk-17: 5.60m - Wknd: 4.25m | Total: 769.26m
Wk-18: 4.15m - Wknd: 3.05m | Total: 774.01m
Wk-19: 3.35m - Wknd: 2.50m | Total: 777.36m
Wk-20: 2.60m - Wknd: 1.80m | Total: 779.96m
Wk-21: 2.20m - Wknd: 1.40m | Total: 782.16m
Wk-22: 1.65m - Wknd: 1.00m | Total: 783.81m
Wk-23: 3.40m - Wknd: 2.00m 4-Day-Wknd: 2.60m | Total: 787.21m
Wk-24: 3.05m - Wknd: 2.05m | Total: 790.26m
Wk-25: 2.50m - Wknd: 1.50m | Total: 792.76m
Wk-26: 1.50m - Wknd: .90m | Total: 794.26m
Wk-27: .90m - Wknd: .60m | Total: 795.16m
Wk-28: .60m - Wknd: .35m | Total: 795.76m
Money Made After Wk-17: ~16m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 55
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 57.07m
Days to 100m: 5-Days - 111.87m
Days to 150m: 8-Days - 163.86m
Days to 200m: 10-Days - 220.14m
Days to 250m: 12-Days - 255.29m
Days to 300m: 15-Days - 306.07m
Days to 350m: 18-Days - 354.36m
Days to 400m: 23-Days - 409.61m
Days to 450m: 25-Days - 452.06m
Days to 500m: 30-Days - 502.51m
Days to 550m: 43-Days - 553.11m
Days to 600m: 51-Days - 602.26m
Days to 650m: 65-Days - 654.81m
Days to 700m: 77-Days - 701.36m
Days to 750m: 101-Days - 751.66m
Days to 800m: 252-Days ~ 800m
Domestic Total: 811m
International Total: 1,190b
World Wide Total: 2b

Multiplyer: 10.02

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Last edited by BJ on Wed May 21, 2008 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Wed May 21, 2008 8:09 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Straight cash, homie wrote:
the film that tops Titanic in the states this year. Its happening. Not sure how exactly...but it is :thumbsup:

edit: this is how:

*Weekends in bold

11/14-16: 39.8
11/17-20: 17.6
11/21-23: 34.5
11/24-27: 27.8
11/28-30: 28.7
12/1-4: 12.5
12/5-7: 23.0
12/8-11: 10.8
12/12-14: 19.5
12/15-18: 8.1
12/19-21: 24.5
12/22-25: 23
12/26-28: 24.5
12/29-1/1: 19.5
1/2-4: 21.5
1/5-8: 9.9
1/9-11: 19.2
1/12-15: 9.4
1/16-18: 17.0
1/19-22: 8.5
1/23-25: 15.8
1/26-29: 7.6
1/30-2/1: 15
2/2-5: 6.8
2/6-8: 14
2/9-12: 6
2/13-15: 12.8
2/16-19: 5.7
2/20-22: 11.0
2/23-26: 6.8
2/27-3/1: 12.9

Now in a Post-Oscars sweep run...

Total at the moment = 513.6 Million

Film stays in top 10 through May and totals in the 620's :D :yes:

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Wed May 21, 2008 8:13 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
this might crack $100m, if it turns out great.

Titanic wouldn't have made half of $600m if released today...so I don't think any epic romance could ever have a legitimate shot at the prize nowadays.

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Wed May 21, 2008 8:26 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
people said the same back in 1997 how gwtw would never have made so much- the romance epic blockbuster was gone and replaced with ones like jurassic park, id4 and men in black

:roll:

Its a genre that will never die.

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Wed May 21, 2008 8:35 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
BJ wrote:
BJs Prediction:
Avatar

Opening Day: 28.11m
2nd Day: 28.96m +4%
Opening Wknd: 80.97m - Fri: 28.11m / Sat: 28.96m +4% / Sun: 23.90m -17%
4-Day: 95.54m - Mon: 14.57m -38%
5-Day: 111.87m - Tue: 16.33m +12%
6-Day: 129.02m - Wed: 17.15m +5%
Opening Wk: 140.01m - Thur: 10.99m -35%
2nd Wknd: 80.13m -1% - Fri: 23.85m +116% / Sat: 30.58m +28% / Sun: 25.70m -16%
11-Day: 239.24m - Mon: 19.11m -25%
12-Day: 255.29m - Tue: 16.04m -15%
13-Day: 269.59m - Wed: 14.30m -11%
2nd Wk: 282.36m - Thur: 12.75m -10%
3rd Wknd: 65.90m -17% - Fri: 23.71m +85% / Sat: 23.71m NC / Sun: 18.48m -22%
Wk-1: 140.01m - Wknd: 80.97m | Total: 140.01m
Wk-2: 142.30m - Wknd: 80.13m | Total: 282.36m
Wk-3: 89.50m - Wknd: 65.90m | Total: 371.86m
Wk-4: 70.20m - Wknd: 52.35m | Total: 442.06m
Wk-5: 63.50m - Wknd: 43.95m - 4-Day-Wknd: 53.95m | Total: 505.56m
Wk-6: 40.85m - Wknd: 28.50m | Total: 546.41m
Wk-7: 37.90m - Wknd: 28.90m | Total: 584.31m
Wk-8: 27.15m - Wknd: 21.50m | Total: 611.46m
Wk-9: 28.95m - Wknd: 20.00m - 4-Day-Wknd: 24.20m | Total: 640.41m
Wk-10: 30.95m - Wknd: 20.05m | Total: 671.36m
Wk-11: 30.00m - Wknd: 21.95m | Total: 701.36m
Wk-12: 20.65m - Wknd: 14.95m | Total: 722.01m
Wk-13: 12.95m - Wknd: 8.95m - | Total: 734.96m
Wk-14: 10.70m - Wknd: 6.80m | Total: 745.66m
Wk-15: 10.30m - Wknd: 6.00m | Total: 755.96m
Wk-16: 8.30m - Wknd: 5.30m | Total: 764.26m
Wk-17: 5.60m - Wknd: 4.25m | Total: 769.26m
Wk-18: 4.15m - Wknd: 3.05m | Total: 774.01m
Wk-19: 3.35m - Wknd: 2.50m | Total: 777.36m
Wk-20: 2.60m - Wknd: 1.80m | Total: 779.96m
Wk-21: 2.20m - Wknd: 1.40m | Total: 782.16m
Wk-22: 1.65m - Wknd: 1.00m | Total: 783.81m
Wk-23: 3.40m - Wknd: 2.00m 4-Day-Wknd: 2.60m | Total: 787.21m
Wk-24: 3.05m - Wknd: 2.05m | Total: 790.26m
Wk-25: 2.50m - Wknd: 1.50m | Total: 792.76m
Wk-26: 1.50m - Wknd: .90m | Total: 794.26m
Wk-27: .90m - Wknd: .60m | Total: 795.16m
Wk-28: .60m - Wknd: .35m | Total: 795.76m
Money Made After Wk-17: ~16m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 55
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 57.07m
Domestic Total: 811m
International Total: 1,190b
World Wide Total: 2b

Multiplyer: 10.02


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Wed May 21, 2008 9:44 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
I could see this becoming the biggest film ever...in AUSTRALIA. Being in December would help it out more, Nicole Kidman is a mixed bag bankability wise lately, and its very difficult for a film focused on another country to do well in the domestic market I think. Films can be set in other countries and do really well (ex. Harry Potter), but this film is specifically called "Australia." Ratatouille shows the difficulty faced by films that have a huge focus on another country for the domestic market. It's harder for people here to relate to the France setting.


Wed May 21, 2008 10:22 pm
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
O wrote:
I could see this becoming the biggest film ever...in AUSTRALIA. Being in December would help it out more, Nicole Kidman is a mixed bag bankability wise lately, and its very difficult for a film focused on another country to do well in the domestic market I think. Films can be set in other countries and do really well (ex. Harry Potter), but this film is specifically called "Australia." Ratatouille shows the difficulty faced by films that have a huge focus on another country for the domestic market. It's harder for people here to relate to the France setting.


No wonder everyone hates america.


Wed May 21, 2008 10:24 pm
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Post Re: Excel Boldly predicts "Australia" to be the film that...
Zingaling wrote:
This automatically eliminates all the accurate bold predictions you've made.


yes it does. :disgust: WTF,Ex?

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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
No way this will even do $100 mil. Let alone $600.

You've lost it.

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Thu May 22, 2008 12:37 am
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Waker of Winds wrote:
BJ wrote:
BJs Prediction:
Avatar

Opening Day: 28.11m
2nd Day: 28.96m +4%
Opening Wknd: 80.97m - Fri: 28.11m / Sat: 28.96m +4% / Sun: 23.90m -17%
4-Day: 95.54m - Mon: 14.57m -38%
5-Day: 111.87m - Tue: 16.33m +12%
6-Day: 129.02m - Wed: 17.15m +5%
Opening Wk: 140.01m - Thur: 10.99m -35%
2nd Wknd: 80.13m -1% - Fri: 23.85m +116% / Sat: 30.58m +28% / Sun: 25.70m -16%
11-Day: 239.24m - Mon: 19.11m -25%
12-Day: 255.29m - Tue: 16.04m -15%
13-Day: 269.59m - Wed: 14.30m -11%
2nd Wk: 282.36m - Thur: 12.75m -10%
3rd Wknd: 65.90m -17% - Fri: 23.71m +85% / Sat: 23.71m NC / Sun: 18.48m -22%
Wk-1: 140.01m - Wknd: 80.97m | Total: 140.01m
Wk-2: 142.30m - Wknd: 80.13m | Total: 282.36m
Wk-3: 89.50m - Wknd: 65.90m | Total: 371.86m
Wk-4: 70.20m - Wknd: 52.35m | Total: 442.06m
Wk-5: 63.50m - Wknd: 43.95m - 4-Day-Wknd: 53.95m | Total: 505.56m
Wk-6: 40.85m - Wknd: 28.50m | Total: 546.41m
Wk-7: 37.90m - Wknd: 28.90m | Total: 584.31m
Wk-8: 27.15m - Wknd: 21.50m | Total: 611.46m
Wk-9: 28.95m - Wknd: 20.00m - 4-Day-Wknd: 24.20m | Total: 640.41m
Wk-10: 30.95m - Wknd: 20.05m | Total: 671.36m
Wk-11: 30.00m - Wknd: 21.95m | Total: 701.36m
Wk-12: 20.65m - Wknd: 14.95m | Total: 722.01m
Wk-13: 12.95m - Wknd: 8.95m - | Total: 734.96m
Wk-14: 10.70m - Wknd: 6.80m | Total: 745.66m
Wk-15: 10.30m - Wknd: 6.00m | Total: 755.96m
Wk-16: 8.30m - Wknd: 5.30m | Total: 764.26m
Wk-17: 5.60m - Wknd: 4.25m | Total: 769.26m
Wk-18: 4.15m - Wknd: 3.05m | Total: 774.01m
Wk-19: 3.35m - Wknd: 2.50m | Total: 777.36m
Wk-20: 2.60m - Wknd: 1.80m | Total: 779.96m
Wk-21: 2.20m - Wknd: 1.40m | Total: 782.16m
Wk-22: 1.65m - Wknd: 1.00m | Total: 783.81m
Wk-23: 3.40m - Wknd: 2.00m 4-Day-Wknd: 2.60m | Total: 787.21m
Wk-24: 3.05m - Wknd: 2.05m | Total: 790.26m
Wk-25: 2.50m - Wknd: 1.50m | Total: 792.76m
Wk-26: 1.50m - Wknd: .90m | Total: 794.26m
Wk-27: .90m - Wknd: .60m | Total: 795.16m
Wk-28: .60m - Wknd: .35m | Total: 795.76m
Money Made After Wk-17: ~16m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 55
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 57.07m
Domestic Total: 811m
International Total: 1,190b
World Wide Total: 2b

Multiplyer: 10.02


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Thu May 22, 2008 1:11 am
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
oh man this is what too much alcohol does...whatever, well see what happens

:oops:

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Thu May 22, 2008 2:59 am
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Excel :disgust:

It may do $100m if its good - but its no Titanic. Its more a Cold Mountain type film. I cant imagine teen america going gaga over 40 somethings Kidman and Jackman.

Even here in Oz - it will be big - all the hype and it comes out during the most lucrative BO time of year - but not Titanic big, not even Shrek or ROTK big. More round the $25-$30m mark max. Even that could be high as there is a backlash against it already.

Personally I think the trailer is overrated too.

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Thu May 22, 2008 3:06 am
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
it is what it is; i said it but.... theres no fucking way this touches titanic :hahaha: :hahaha:

damn im embarrassed :oops:

1st drop of alochol in 9 months had quite the effect :funny:

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Thu May 22, 2008 3:10 am
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
:lol: :lol:

$40-50m at most.


Thu May 22, 2008 9:52 am
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Post Re: Excel BOLDLY predicts "Australia" will be...
Straight cash, homie wrote:
it is what it is; i said it but.... theres no fucking way this touches titanic :hahaha: :hahaha:

damn im embarrassed :oops:

1st drop of alochol in 9 months had quite the effect :funny:


is that way you say when someone calls your BULLSHIT. :roll:

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Thu May 22, 2008 10:48 am
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