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2015 Guild Tracker
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=79324		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Loyal [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:25 pm ]
Post subject:  2015 Guild Tracker
I think this is everything. :sweat:

Mad Max: Fury Road - (PGA, DGA, SAG Stunt, ACE, ASC, CDG, ADG, CAS, VES, MPSE)
The Revenant - (PGA ,DGA, SAG Leo, ACE, ASC, CAS, ADG, VES, MPSE)
The Martian - (PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, VES, CDG, MPSE)
The Big Short - (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, SAG Bale, WGA, ACE)
Spotlight - (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, SAG McAdams, WGA)

Bridge of Spies - (PGA, WGA, SAG Rylance, ASC, CAS, ADG, VES, MPSE)
Trumbo - (SAG Ensemble, SAG Cranston, SAG Mirren, WGA, ADG, CDG)
Carol (SAG Blanchett, SAG Mara, WGA, ASC, CDG)
Sicario (PGA, WGA, ACE, ASC, ADG, MPSE)
Inside Out - (PGA, ACE, CAS, VES, MPSE)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (ACE, CAS, ADG, VES, CDG, MPSE)
Straight Outta Compton - (PGA, SAG Ensemble, WGA, MPSE)
Brooklyn - (PGA, SAG Ronan, CDG)
The Danish Girl - (SAG Redmayne, SAG Vikander, ADG, CDG)
Steve Jobs - (SAG Fassbender, SAG Winslet, WGA)
Beasts of No Nation - (SAG Ensemble, SAG Elba, CDG)
Ex Machina - (PGA, ADG, CDG)
Joy - (ACE, ADG, CDG)
Room - (SAG Larson, SAG Tremblay, MPSE)
The Hateful Eight (CAS)

The Good Dinosaur - (PGA, ACE, CAS, VES, MPSE)
The Peanuts Movie - (PGA, CAS, VES, MPSE)
Anomalisa - (PGA, ACE, VES, MPSE)
Ant-Man - (ACE, VES, MPSE)
Trainwreck - (WGA, ACE)
Crimson Peak - (ADG, CDG)
Cinderella - (ADG, CDG)
Jurassic World - (SAG Stunt, ADG, VES,MPSE)
Minions - (PGA, CAS, MPSE)
Hotel Transylvania 2 - (CAS, VES, MPSE)
Tomorrowland - (ADG, VES)
Everest - (SAG Stunt, VES)
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - (SAG Stunt, VES, MPSE)
Furious 7 - (SAG Stunt, VES)

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl - (ACE)
Spectre - (ADG)
Black Mass - (SAG Depp)
Woman in Gold - (SAG Mirren)
I Smile Back - (SAG Silverman)
99 Homes - (SAG Shannon)
Home - (VES)
In the Heart of the Sea - (VES)
Chappie - (VES)
The Walk - (VES)
San Andreas - (VES)
Avengers: Age of Ultron - (VES)
Kingsman: The Secret Service - (CDG)
Youth - (CDG)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - (CDG)
Shaun The Sheep - (MPSE)
Creed - (MPSE)
Pitch Perfect 2 - (MPSE)
Love & Mercy - (MPSE)
Southpaw - (MPSE)
Jupiter Ascending - (MPSE)
Author:  Libs [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Good job. Matt Damon wasn't nominated at SAG though.
Author:  Loyal [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Libs wrote:
Good job. Matt Damon wasn't nominated at SAG though.


Thanks! I just added the animated films as well, there were just seven between VES and PGA
Author:  Shack [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Ex Machina is listed twice
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
The nine out of the Top 10 films above will be nominated, with Trumbo missing out.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
I also think BAFTAs should be added. Not a guild, but just as important due to the members overlap with the Academy.
Author:  Shack [ Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
My rankings of strictly guild and BAFTA performance

1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Martian
6. Straight Outta Compton
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Carol
10. Trumbo
11. Brooklyn
12. Ex Machina
13. Beasts of No Nation
14. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
15. Joy
16. Room

Compton may seem high and I trust some experts who are still treating it as a toss-up to get in on Thursday, but it still got 3 major guilds in SAG, PGA, WGA and its weaker areas were more explainable, like the British not going for a rap film tied to American culture. Bridge of Spies did excellent in some places but also lost in some categories it's friendly in like SAG, ACE and DGA. So I put Compton performance ahead even if we kind of know it's likely to not be as strong

Where to rank Carol is difficult, as it killed films like Trumbo and Sicario at BAFTA, but did worse at guilds. Trumbo looks to be an especially ensemble-nomination friendly film, so I'm inclined to not treat that nomination as important as Sicario's PGA+ACE combination and Carol BAFTA performance. Carol missing PGA still looks bad to me even if it had low box-office

Brooklyn and Ex Machina is actually close to a tie, the one thing I don't like for Ex Machina's case is that they chose The Danish Girl for Vikander at SAG over it
Author:  Algren [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Loyal wrote:
Mad Max: Fury Road - (PGA, DGA, SAG Stunt, ACE, ASC, CDG, ADG, CAS, VES)
The Revenant - (PGA ,DGA, SAG Leo, ACE, ASC, CAS, ADG, VES)
The Martian - (PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, VES, CDG)
The Big Short - (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, SAG Bale, WGA, ACE)
Spotlight - (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, SAG McAdams, WGA)


So these are essentially the big films in this award season, and most of the big awards will be spread between these. I've seen two. AND THEY BOTH BEGIN WITH 'M'. ;)
Author:  Algren [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
And lol at Creed; nowhere to be seen. Critics and Globes ate it up, but the Guilds (and maybe the Academy) don't give a rat's ass. :(
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Algren wrote:
And lol at Creed; nowhere to be seen. Critics and Globes ate it up, but the Guilds (and maybe the Academy) don't give a rat's ass. :(


Which guilds should Creed have appeared at exactly? Rocky only had DGA, WGA, and ACE (it predated PGA and SAG awards).
Author:  Algren [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Loyal wrote:
Algren wrote:
And lol at Creed; nowhere to be seen. Critics and Globes ate it up, but the Guilds (and maybe the Academy) don't give a rat's ass. :(


Which guilds should Creed have appeared at exactly? Rocky only had DGA, WGA, and ACE (it predated PGA and SAG awards).


Why is everything a tug-of-war with you? I didn't say it should have appeared at any. Just sad that it hasn't.
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Algren wrote:
Loyal wrote:
Algren wrote:
And lol at Creed; nowhere to be seen. Critics and Globes ate it up, but the Guilds (and maybe the Academy) don't give a rat's ass. :(


Which guilds should Creed have appeared at exactly? Rocky only had DGA, WGA, and ACE (it predated PGA and SAG awards).


Why is everything a tug-of-war with you? I didn't say it should have appeared at any. Just sad that it hasn't.


Your sad smiley face indicated sadness that somehow Creed had missed out on a guild. Aside from Sly at SAG and maybe a 10th spot at PGA, not sure where else it stood a realistic chance.
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Dr. Lecter wrote:
The nine out of the Top 10 films above will be nominated, with Trumbo missing out.


The funny thing is I didn't even mean to view it as a Top 10 but it totally is. I still hope Room makes the list but it has really unperformed with the guilds. We'll see in about 22 hours...
Author:  Loyal [ Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Updated with PGA and ACE winners.
Author:  Loyal [ Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Updated with SAG and ADG winners.
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Updated with VES winners
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
A major blow for Mad Max.

The Oscar VFX-winner almost always wins the VES award. Spider-Man 2, The Golden Compass and Interstellar are the exceptions.

The Revenant might have this one in the bag, along with Actor and Cinematography. I doubt Mad Max is winning more than 4-5 Oscars.
Author:  Algren [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Loyal has bolded Mad Max VES. So it won?
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
It won an unimportant award there, Loyal should have only bolded the two that count:

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Motion Picture (Star Wars)

and

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture (The Revenant)

Mad Max won for

Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature

Whereas Star Wars took four wins in total and The Revenant three.
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Correct, Mad Max won for the lesser VES award.
Author:  Algren [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Right.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Dr. Lecter wrote:
It won an unimportant award there, Loyal should have only bolded the two that count:

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Motion Picture (Star Wars)

and

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture (The Revenant)

Mad Max won for

Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature

Whereas Star Wars took four wins in total and The Revenant three.


Isn't Mad Max kind of handicapped because of the way the categories are constructed in the first place? It doesn't really most excel in the "visual effects-driven motion picture" category because it isn't the most heavy or epic visual effects-driven movie (like The Force Awakens), which this category favours. One of the cool things about the movie is that George Miller shot a lot of stuff simultaneously with practical stunts in order to reduce the need for visual effects.

And it doesn't really excel in the "supporting visual effects" category because it's still an action film and doesn't use visual effects in a sparing way like The Revenant does to support what is mostly great cinematography. (Mad Max certainly isn't a film that is in line with the kinds of films that usually win this category at the VES awards if you look back at past winners).

Also, going back to 1990 (I haven't checked any further back), in years where any of the visual effects Oscar nominees were also nominated for Best Picture, the visual effects Oscar winner is always, without exception, one of the films also nominated for Best Picture. This is probably because the entire Academy votes on the Visual Effects winner. This suggests to me that The Force Awakens is pretty unlikely to win the Oscar.

So, I can see The Revenant winning the Oscar, but I could see Mad Max challenging and winning it too (as a Best Picture/Director nominated film that also has lots of nominations overall). But you're probably right that The Revenant will win.

Peace,
Mike
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
It's between The Revenant and Mad Max for the Visual Effects win. Like most other categories this year, it's a head to head match-up between the two. I suspect whichever of the two wins Visual Effects, that win will be part of a larger tech sweep.
Author:  Loyal [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I doubt Mad Max is winning more than 4-5 Oscars.


Which categories?
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2015 Guild Tracker
Well, I don't think it is getting BP, BD or Editing and it seems likely to lose Effects and Cinematography to The Revenant. Best case is, it wins the remaining five. But I could see it losing one of the Sound noms to Star Wars, leaving it with Costumes, Production Design, Makeup and one of the Sound Oscars.
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