At the moment, seems like it is Rev's to lose. Spotlight seems more likely to get the noble SJW wave, that might overtake it. BS the other contender for that faction, as strong as it is, seems like greatest YouTube video ever, than a BP. I don't see anything else contending at the moment.

Mad Max is more likely than either Spotlight or The Big Short, in my opinion. It has a much better chance at winning best Director and therefore it has a better chance at winning best picture.

I'm sticking with the Rev or Mad Max and no Director split so whoever wins that wins BP. Either one or the other is going to clean up the techs but we all know Leo is winning Actor so:

Tech+Actor=Director=Picture

Now if Mad Max sweeps the techs then I expect it to win BD+BP.

I still think the AMPAS are far more likely to toss BD to Miller than BP to Mad Max (as we saw with Gravity) but I'd gladly be wrong.

I think MM has as much chance at winning BP as SWTFA had at getting a BP nom. The only chance I could see it having is if it gets momentum as a way of blunting the criticism of no actors of color getting nominations, because of its feminist point of view. Other than that, I don't see it having a chance.