It is nonsense to make a prediction this early, I'm well aware of that. And y'all need to know that I'm the one person who didn't care for Budapest so there is no bias here.

Following their heroic crowning of 12 Years A Slave, I think the academy will be eager to award a light-hearted movie the top prize this year. Sure this could change if Gone Girl, Fox Catcher, Inherent Vice, etc... are undeniable once-in-a-lifetime pictures, but I'm going to assume they will just be "really good". I see a couple things that are working heavily in its favor.

1) They can award an overdue Wes Anderson. He is one the most respected filmmakers in Hollywood, all the guilds love him, yet he has never received a single best picture or best director nomination.

2) They can show that opening earlier than October will not doom your best picture chances. From a producers point of view this should be a huge goal. Look at Chef, which is heading for $30M+. Even with Favs and RDJ, I doubt it does that in the fall. Why? Because there's a hundred other movies appealing to the exact same audience.

3) I'm basing this on nothing, I haven't seen the movie, but I feel like there will be a Boyhood backlash in the coming months. Someone high up will think its just OK, but feel the need to go into detail about all its flaws just because everyone else is calling it perfect. Call it Social Network syndrome.

4) For once Wes will have the support of the actors guild. There's usually no time for a powerhouse performance in an Anderson ensemble movie, but here he lets Fiennes shine and dominate the film.

5) And lastly, nobody seems to have a problem with it (other than me). Nobody seems to care that Jude Law's narration is annoying, exhausting and pointless. Nobody else seems to mind that Wes cuts off half the screen. It's an easy movie to get behind and feel good about supporting.

I'll post more reasons as I think of them.

Nomination? Maybe. Win? Absolutely no. Even if it came out in November or later it wouldn't win. It's just no BP winner movie that Academy would go for.

Nah, it'll be something released closer to the Oscars.

it's gonna lose to boyhood

Absolutely not. It won't even be nominated.

IMO, Boyhood is the only movie released so far this year with a shot at a Best Picture nod.

I guess I need to see Boyhood now.

no thanks, I also wasn't a huge fan of the movie. Anderson could get a nom though if there isn't much competition, and Ralph Fiennes will almost certainly be nominated.

I concur. Nomination Possible. Win 0%

What I would love to see happen is a Best Actor nomination for Ralph Fiennes.

Yes, a nomination for the delightful Fiennes would be marvelous!!!

But in regards to the thread topic, and echoing everyone else's sentiments, there's no way this will ever happen. I arrived at my conclusion through the following logic:

My favorite movie of the year has never won Best Picture.

I think Fiennes will win the Golden Globe for Comedy, but lose to Steve Carrell at the oscars.

Fiennes wouldn't be supporting? I probably would place him there but I guess like Gene Hackman in Tenenbaums he would be considered lead.

Well, well, well this guy isn't looking so crazy anymore. I don't think it is a stretch to say that absolutely nothing has emerged as a frontrunner, which was one of my conditions for a Budapest win. Boom diggy. Now it just needs a political spin...

I forgot this came out this year. Feels like it was two years ago.

Gurl, this isn't happening. Pack it in.

I'm as big of a Wes Anderson fan as anyone else out there (and I love this movie), but there's absolutely no way that it's winning Best Picture. Even getting nominated is probably going to be a struggle.

This is not even getting nominated for Best Picture.

It will be lucky to get one or two nominations for anything. Moonrise Kingdom just got one for Screenplay, and its hard to argue this was a considerably better film, if at all.

Considering how weak BSA is this year I still say Fiennes gets a nom in that category

How is Fiennes a supporting actor though? He is on screen for 80% of the film.

Screentime makes no difference.

Longest performance to win a supporting acting Oscar
Tatum O'Neal in Paper Moon (1973) - 1 hour, 6 minutes and 58 seconds.

Longest performance to be nominated for a supporting acting Oscar
Frank Finlay in Othello (1965) - 1 hour, 30 minutes and 43 seconds.

Shortest performance to win a lead acting Oscar
Patricia Neal in Hud (1963) - 21 minutes and 51 seconds.

Yeah, but except for the romance, no one else in the film even has an arc. Fiennes is front and center because the film revolves around him. It would be absolute fraud if Fiennes was in supporting.

Fox Searchlight is (rightly, in my opinion) campaigning Fiennes as a lead: http://www.foxsearchlight.com/fyc/film/gbh/categories/

He deserves a nomination, but will not receive one.

Honestly, this is still not winning, but it could end up with most nominations. I see at least 8, up to 10.