Who's watching?

Some predictions:
Lupita N'yongo for Best Supporting Actress.
Jared Leto and Cate Blanchett are locked.
American Hustle for Ensemble.
But I'm still uncertain about Best Actor. I could see McConaughey, Ejiofor, and Dern winning.

Bruce Dern's status as a veteran, particularly as a veteran whose career has gone up and down and has relied in large part on gigs as gigs come (versus, say, a Paul Newman or Robert Redford type A-list star), could definitely help him here. The narrative of the undervalued, one-of-us old-timer receiving the role of a lifetime at age 77.

I believe American Hustle will win for ensemble and for supporting actress.

I am always intrigued by the inclusions and omissions in regard to the ensemble nominations. Robert De Niro is not included among the American Hustle ensemble, but Alex Pettyfer is for The Butler. Both are, at the most, three- or four-minute performances.

Lupita!!!! So happy! She looks stunning too. Wonderful speech.

Is anyone else watching?

Didn't help O'Toole (for venus). Despite his 8th nom...

MOTION PICTURE
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Ensemble Cast: American Hustle

TELEVISION
Best Actress in a Drama Series: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Best Actor in a Drama Series: Brian Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series: Breaking Bad
Best Actress in a Movie/MiniSeries: Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Best Actor in a Movie/MiniSeries: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Best Actor in a Comedy Series: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series: Modern Family

Really look like McConaughey may just win the Oscar.

And another case American Hustle showed strength in winning Ensemble but also weakness in losing Supporting Actress. Don't see any film dominating the Oscar this year. The support seems rather scattered in various categories for any one film to sweep.

Except for McConaughey's win, it all went down just as I expected. The SAG awards told us nothing about the BP race. American Hustle's much flashier cast was always the favorite to win, IMO; ESPECIALLY after SAG chose not to award Silver Linings Playbook's cast last year.

Lyong'o, Blanchett, Leto and McConaughey are all clear frontrunners now. In fact, Best Actor is the only category I could still see someone else winning (in fact I could see DiCaprio, Dern, McConaughey or Ejiofor winning). The other three will go down the same way as SAG.

Whichever movie wins PGA now, will be the frontrunner. I am very certain that 12 Years a Slave will win the BAFTA and Gravity will most likely win the DGA. American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street will win at the WGA awards.

I think Lawrence is still in the running, but, yeah, I kinda doubt it at the same time.

Meanwhile McConaughey is a solid front runner now in Lead Actor, but this is the category where you are most likely so see an upset me thinks. I would not put Ejiofor out of the race at all, and the lack of a Leo nomination at SAG shows he's chips are coming late into the race, so I honestly think he is the more likely to upset.

The other two are locks though.

In a hotel ... can't find it ... which network/channel?

EDIT: found it

McConaughey should win something, at least. I mean, he's done well in three films this year; Mud, Dallas Buyer's Club and The Wolf of Wall Street. If he doesn't win this year, he will win eventually. His case will build up over the years to the point where people will say "WHY HASN'T MM WON AN OSCAR YET?"

BrBa!

The best parts of these:
-Rita Moreno
-Cate Blanchett throwing shade at Matthew McConaughey's inane speech and then giving her award a handjob

The last 3 times the DGA/PGA split (06, 04, 01) the DGA winner won (00 was last split in PGA's favor) which is why the DGA has the big 11 of 12 matches streak, so I'm not betting against the DGA winner in any scenario really, it's just been too dominant an indicator outside of the Brokeback weirdness

With that said. I think people are underestimating the chance of McQueen or Russell winning DGA over Cuaron anyways. If 12YAS or Hustle is going to win Best Picture they're probably winning both PGA and DGA.

Watched the SAGs last night:

-Having read McConaughey's speech first, it reads terribly, but I thought it came off kind of endearing as he said it. He's genuinely happy to be taken seriously as an actor.

-Cuba Gooding Jr's random "HAPPY MLK!" at the end of the show was great.

-Funny seeing De Niro come out with the Hustle cast, considering he's A. not "officially" a part of the cast and B. not on the list of winners for the film, according to Wikipedia's page on the awards.

De Niro was one of the reasons why I loved American Hustle, so he deserves to be there. Probably his best acting role in a while.