Well which is it?

Neither Leo or Fassbender getting Best Actor; the spots instead going to Oldman and the Mexican George Clooney.

Added a poll.

My vote is clearly Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close getting in for BP!

Jane Eyre didn't miss Best Costume Design!

Ah, I read the list wrong.

I think Brooks not getting in is the worst snub because he had won so many awards/been nominated for so many awards leading up to this.

ELIC obviously for BP but also Bichir over Fassbender? Travesty

Yeah, it's Extremely Loud for Best Picture by a mile. For the others, we all have some explanations:

1. Dragon Tattoo was always thought to be vulnerable until guilds made us believe it's in pretty good shape, but it still isn't that surprising it could miss;
2. A veteran actor sneaking in a wide-open category certainly had happened before;
3. Brooks missed both SAG and BAFTA, and we knew the film isn't going to be embraced by the academy;
5. Bichir did get in SAG, even though we dismissed it as a random SAG nom at the time;
6. DiCapirio is in a mediocre film, while Fassbender is in a non-academy friendly one;
7. Obstacle is always there for performance capture films;
8. Original Screenplay has a strong field.

We have an explanation for EL&IC, too. Daldry is their god. 9/11. Tears. Tony cast.

Comparing to others, that's the bigger surprise than all of them, I'd say. It got no guilds or BAFTA support. At least The Reader had Winslet and screenplay. The new rule means it got over 5% of No. 1 ballots, but it had only one other nom, and that one likely barely made it.

I thought the point of this whole "5-to-10 nominees" thing was to eliminate a film like EL&IC getting nominated unnecessarily? And they thought Winter's Bone didn't deserve it last year.

The Tree of Life getting in for both Picture and Director, which I don't think you have as a poll choice (?)

That made me so happy but flabbergasted at the same time. It had no guild support whatsoever.

I actually wasn't that surprised by Extremely Loud for whatever reason. I always had a nagging feeling it would get in, reviews be damned. The Academy loves them some Daldry.

My Week with Marilyn not getting in Costume Design strikes me as a pretty big surprise too, as the film seems tailor-made for the category, and somehow W.E. got in over it.

The explanation for EL&IC is Daldry. That's it. Heh.

Edited, though like you with EL&IC I always had a suspiction ToL and Malick would make it.

BFCA must feel pretty smart and relieved now.

Biggest surprise would've came two years ago if you had told me Jonah Hill and Melissa McCarthy would be Oscar nominees.

I will also say The Help getting only 4 nominations total, BP and 3 acting, is a big surprise to me and could be considered for the poll as well. I know none of the others is considered a lock like those 4 to begin with, but to miss them all, techs and screenplay, is surprising for a film that was considered to be among one of the few films that could upset The Artist. It definitely doesn't look like that's happening now. In fact, strength wise purely looking from the nominations, I'd put it 7th only ahead of War Horse and Extremely Loud.

While I have expected 1-2 more noms, I would have put it at #7 before as well. Maybe #6. But Moneyball, Hugo, The Descendants, The Artist and Midnight in Paris were ahead of it all the way.

The Help not being a powerhouse could be good news for Meryl.

I'm not the film expert like some of you guys, but I was wondering if the negative reviews of The Iron Lady are going to hurt Streep by the time Feb. 26th rolls around?

I was actually nervous The Help wasn't even going to get nominated in BP after it missed a Screenplay nom. lol

It may, but after The Iron Lady got in Best Makeup while The Help missing those makeable categories, the odd is certainly looking up for Streep getting her third Oscar.

But The Help got a Best Picture nomination? haha

I understand it didn't score as many nods as expected, but I would think an additional Picture nominee outweighs...Makeup. If we're talking about the strengths of the film themselves.

Still think this will be the most interesting race up until the Oscars. I feel like Viola has a strong shot at SAG.

I never had it in for Screenplay. Its screenplay is sloppy the strength is in the acting and that carried the film to its success.