David wrote:
Sorry my post wasn't any help to you, Chippy. Just know I think the world of you.
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| 2012 Contenders Discussion http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=65952 |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Beasts of the Southern Wild has TWENTY 100s on Metacritic, and is on track for at least $10 million at the box office, maybe even $15+ million if it expands well. It probably won't win anything, but it should be good for Picture, Screenplay and Actress nominations. Maybe a tech nomination or Directing if it's REALLY embraced at the end of the year. |
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| Author: | David [ Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Best Supporting Actor might be in play, too. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
David wrote: Sorry my post wasn't any help to you, Chippy. Just know I think the world of you.
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Hope Springs is at 100% with 17 in, and an 8.1 average. Is Meryl looking at nomination #18 already? 
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
So Gatsby is out... I wonder what the chances are for Daniel Day-Lewis to win again. We all know how good he is and this could hardly be a more perfect role in a more perfect movie. But three LEADING wins with five noms...that'd be SOMETHING. |
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| Author: | David [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
His name is Joaquin Phoenix, Lecter, and he's going to win. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Interestingly enough, no one has ever won an Acting Oscar for a Spielberg film. Dunno if that's helpful at all to predicting his win. Though I feel like Phoenix, Hawkes and Jackman are just as much threats, and none of them have an Oscar yet, let alone two. Right now I'm suspecting that Lincoln won't live up to the public hype (What was the last serious Spielberg that did? Or any Spielberg?), but it'll still slip in to Picture (If War Horse could...) and Actor (Because it's DANIEL DAY-LEWIS), plus some techs. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Pheonix is the favorite, I am not arguing that. I wouldn't even bring this up, if it wasn't for....DANIEL DAY-LEWIS! Phoenix should have already won for Gladiator... |
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| Author: | David [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I don't see Day-Lewis winning. It's too soon for a third win, and there are other heavyweight contenders. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I don't see how DDL loses. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Dr. Lecter wrote: So Gatsby is out... I think Gatsby's exactly the type of movie that could get in with a 55% RT or something. It can soak up some senior citizen safe Oscar movie votes. I wouldn't bury it yet. |
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| Author: | David [ Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Shack wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: So Gatsby is out... I think Gatsby's exactly the type of movie that could get in with a 55% RT or something. It can soak up some senior citizen safe Oscar movie votes. I wouldn't bury it yet. He was referring to it being out of contention this year because it's been delayed to summer 2013. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
christian bale will win |
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| Author: | David [ Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
For the Terrence Malick movie where he romances starlets on the beach and goes to rock concerts? |
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| Author: | MovieDude [ Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I think Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the only movies released so far this year that will be nominated for Best Picture. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I would take Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor over DDL at this point. Reading the early word on the Master it really seems like Joaquin's moment career wise + 3rd Oscar for DDL was always going to be an uphill climb. Plus Phoenix's looks like a perfect example of a "half retard" performance and we know how those do. I'm guessing the Master ends up a "The signature 2nd or 3rd strongest movie, no chance at winning" case |
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| Author: | David [ Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
It's no doubt dangerous, of course, to see Best Actor only as Joaquin vs. Daniel. We seriously should not forget: 
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Who's that? |
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| Author: | David [ Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Wolverine, of course. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Argo apparently played like gangbusters at Telluride today. http://www.deadline.com/2012/08/ben-aff ... contender/ |
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| Author: | David [ Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I'm not surprised. Affleck is a good director. He understands how to create films both crowd-pleasing and thoughtful. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
Affleck's strong directorial career is a hugely pleasant surprise. Back when everyone had written him off as an actor around 2005 or 2006, it's nice to see him pull this second life out. Gone Baby Gone and The Town picked up a few Oscar noms combined, but I think Argo is going to be a huge player this year. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I could actually see Argo being a Picture winner contender if the Academy REALLY goes for it. But right now it at least looks like a good bet for a Picture nod. |
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| Author: | David [ Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I can't see it winning. If nominated, it will be this year's Frost/Nixon (or Michael Clayton). There is almost guaranteed to be another film with more immediate sentimental appeal. |
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| Author: | David [ Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion |
I wonder if Lincoln will have one or more Best Supporting Actor contenders. Such a huge cast: Walton Goggins, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, John Hawkes, Hal Holbrook, Tommy Lee Jones, Tim Blake Nelson, James Spader, David Strathairn, and more. |
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