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2012 Contenders Discussion
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Author:  David [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:44 pm ]
Post subject:  2012 Contenders Discussion
These are my super-super early predictions. I'll see how they pan out once the race comes into sharper focus months from now.

Best Picture (I'll predict ten just because it's possible. For all I know, there could be another rule change between now and then.)
Anna Karenina*
The Dark Knight Rises*
Django Unchained
Gravity
Great Expectations
The Great Gatsby*
Life of Pi
Lincoln*
The Master*
Shadow Dancer

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Joe Wright, Anna Karenina

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
John Hawkes, The Surrogate
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Actress
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
Andrea Riseborough, Shadow Dancer
Meryl Streep, Great Hope Springs

Best Supporting Actor
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
Sean Penn, The Gangster Squad
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Supporting Actress
Annette Bening, Imogene
Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
Sally Field, Lincoln
Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Original Screenplay
Django Unchained
The Master
Nero Fiddled
The Place Beyond the Pines
Robot & Frank

Best Adapted Screenplay
Anna Karenina
The Dark Knight Rises
The Great Gatsby
Lincoln
Hyde Park on Hudson
Author:  Shack [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Random early pick for BP winner - On the Road. While like AK, Gatsby, etc. it suffers from the rarity of a big name adaptation being BP, I do think it's built to be far more relevant to present day

Best Actress: Kirsten Dunst for Red Light Winter (playing a NY prostitute). I think Dunst has a really big 2012. Lots of movies.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
If all goes as expected, it'll be DiCaprio vs. Day-Lewis for Best Actor...
Author:  David [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Magnus wrote:
If Lincoln is just an above average film, it'll sweep.

I don't see this. Day-Lewis winning an unprecedented third, sure, definitely, but not a huge overall sweep. Needs to get GREAT reviews, a Schindler's List/Saving Private Ryan level reception, for a sweep. An Amistad/War Horse reception won't be enough.
Author:  David [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Shack wrote:
Random early pick for BP winner - On the Road. While like AK, Gatsby, etc. it suffers from the rarity of a big name adaptation being BP, I do think it's built to be far more relevant to present day

Best Actress: Kirsten Dunst for Red Light Winter (playing a NY prostitute). I think Dunst has a really big 2012. Lots of movies.

I used to have lots of confidence in On the Road, but I believe this will be the third year we're discussing it as a contender. It's getting to be Margaret 2.0, lol. Obviously there's an issue, a rift, a hangup; I don't know if it'll be a debilitating one is all. Let's see if it doesn't get dumped first.
Author:  Libs [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
The Surrogate. Calling it now. John Hawkes and Helen Hunt (I love that she's BACK, btw) are going to be the frontrunners for the lead acting categories. The reception out of Sundance was phenomenal.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Libs wrote:
The Surrogate. Calling it now. John Hawkes and Helen Hunt (I love that she's BACK, btw) are going to be the frontrunners for the lead acting categories. The reception out of Sundance was phenomenal.


Wasn't Martha Marcy May Marlene's reception phenomenal too?
Author:  David [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Libs wrote:
The Surrogate. Calling it now. John Hawkes and Helen Hunt (I love that she's BACK, btw) are going to be the frontrunners for the lead acting categories. The reception out of Sundance was phenomenal.


Wasn't Martha Marcy May Marlene's reception phenomenal too?

Like Crazy, too. Huge Sundance buzz doesn't always translate into successful Oscar buzz.

I am definitely predicting Hawkes, though.
Author:  David [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Winter's Bone and An Education did well in terms of nominations.
Author:  Libs [ Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Winter's Bone, An Education and Martha Marcy May Marlene were also *not* crowd pleasers the way The Surrogate is supposed to be (and it did win the audience award). Fox Searchlight picked it up (for $6 million, I might add), and if there's anyone that's good at working the crowd pleasing indie fave angle, it's them.

It's ridiculously early to be discussing it, though.
Author:  David [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
An Education wasn't a crowd pleaser? :(
Author:  Chippy [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Dr. Lecter wrote:
If all goes as expected, it'll be DiCaprio vs. Day-Lewis for Best Actor...


I hope all goes as expected.
Author:  David [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I could see Bill Murray being a strong force in the best actor race. He's playing a president himself: FDR.
Author:  Chippy [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
By the looks of it, 2012 looks MILES better than 2011.
Author:  David [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Life of Pi should be interesting. I'm not sure how easily the novel can be adapted for the screen, but I have faith in Ang Lee.

Ralph Fiennes as Magwitch and Helena Bonham Carter as Miss Havisham in the new Great Expectations = awesome casting.
Author:  Shack [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I didnt know Life of Pi and Great Expectations were coming out as well, holy adaptations batman

The Oscars owe Ang Lee BP so much that even a Life of Pi adaptation has to be right at the top of the list for contenders

Good call on Murray. And Linney and the film should be in the mix too.
Author:  David [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
The Gangster Squad should be a HUGE contender with its cast--Ryan Gosling, Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Nick Nolte, Emma Stone--and period setting, but I'm not entirely "feeling it" yet. For one, the director, Ruben Fleischer (30 Minutes or Less), hardly inspires prestige-pic confidence. And neither The Untouchables nor Public Enemies were Oscar powerhouses. The latter didn't receive a single nomination in fact (this surprised me, I thought it had received a few tech nods).

Penn as gangster Mickey Cohen in a supporting role could result in a nomination, though, definitely.
Author:  Price [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
For BEST ACTOR that unknown young guy from TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE. ;)
Author:  MovieDude [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Magnus wrote:
David wrote:
Winter's Bone and An Education did well in terms of nominations.


yeah but didnt win. LMS was the last time we had a Sundance flick actually win multiple Oscars.


Precious.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I feel like Great Gatsby won't be a big contender.

And maybe Leo will get nominated (and possibly win supporting?) for Djano Unchained? But that's just a wild guess.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Jan 31, 2012 7:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Like 2002, Leo has two major films coming out in December. I do hope Django is the film and performance with the higher praise.
Author:  Corpse [ Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Can an actor be nominated in more than one category, or twice in a single category?
Author:  MovieDude [ Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Corpse wrote:
Can an actor be nominated in more than one category, or twice in a single category?


Theoretically, why not? Soderbergh was nominated twice for Best Director in 2000...

Mostly, I think the studios try and avoid that by sometimes subordinating what are essentially 'lead' roles as supporting. No studio would want their contender to be cannibalized by their own selves. You could argue that might have been what happened to Michael Fassbender this year.
Author:  trixster [ Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
An actor can't be nominated in the same category twice. It's one of those stupid Oscar rules...

Quote:
5. In the event that two achievements by an actor or actress receive sufficient votes to be nominated in the same category, only one shall be nominated using the preferential tabulation process and such other allied procedures as may be necessary to achieve that result.

http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawa ... ule06.html


But actors are nominated in more than one category all the time. Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age + I'm Not There, Jamie Foxx in Ray + Collateral, Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven + The Hours...and that's just from this century.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 5:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Yeahm that's one of the most moronic Oscar rules out there which basically forces category fraud (like in Foxx' case, or attempted in Kate Winslet's case).
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