Let's continue...

This field (along with Sup. Actress) is harder to tell for me at this point. No Ledger/Waltz frontrunner in sight as of now. My current predictions:

Albert Brooks (Drive)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) - or is this a lead role?

Albert Brooks, not Finney.

If Martha Marcy May Marlene is received well enough to get three or four nominations (like Elizabeth Olsen, Screenplay, or especially Sound Editing, which in my mind should be a lock because it's this aspect that allows for the film's truly excellent stream-of-consciousness transitions...) then John Hawkes is in too. There sure isn't any Hans Landa this year, but his quiet menace in MMMM is is infinitely more effective than Albert Brooks in Drive, who IMO really would not be in this discussion if it wasn't for him playing against type.

What's more, John Hawkes has recently had a windfall of good creative roles, especially Teardrop in Winter's Bone, which really pushed him out of the nice guy roles and might make him seem a little 'due'. In MMMM he's incredibly creepy and intimidating while also being ceaselessly charismatic and soft-spoken. It's a while almost never raising his voice and could make him seem somewhat 'due'. He takes it to another level here, and in a year weak enough that Christopher Plummer may be the current front runner I think he's going to be a front runner.

Christopher Plummer
Nick Nolte
John Hawkes

corey stoll plz

I second this.

Me too actually.

So as to indirectly applaud Woody for his clumsy, shallow name-dropping revue? No.

I hope Nolte can still manage a nomination. Such a gripping, full-bodied, moving performance in Warrior.

They fully intend to directly applaud Woody for his efforts therein, so they might as well give the scene-stealer some kudos too.

Yeah I'm pretty sure Midnight in Paris is going to score several nominations. It was an incredible success both financially and critically, and the Academy is going to reflect that.

The critics must be idiots.

It'll be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, maybe Best Picture, and maybe, maybe, maybe, doubtful, but maybe Best Director. No acting nominations.

In the best 'Crash' tradition...

This is easily the wildest category of the year. Besides Christopher Plummer in Beginners, I'm not sure anyone is 100%. There are lots of viable players, but no one else seems perfectly, squarely in the race. Armie Hammer is a strong possibility as Gay Edgar Hoover's lover, but J. Edgar could get disappointing reviews. Albert Brooks played against type as a flashy villain, reminiscent of William Hurt in A History of Violence, but Drive is nonexistent in terms of the Oscar race otherwise. John Hawkes' role in Martha Marcy May Marlene is a bit smaller and more opaque than you might expect, with less detail and grit than "Teardrop" in Winter's Bone. He's still very good, though, and can't be ruled out. There's also Kenneth Branagh, Viggo Mortensen, Ben Kingsley in Hugo, a couple dudes in War Horse (including the great Peter Mullan)...

Oh, and everyone is saying Max von Sydow now. Apparently he's playing a mute homeless man with a heart of gold in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

I can totally see Best Director, but you're right in that it won't receive any acting noms.

Robert Forster's last scene in The Descendants might get him in here.

Kinda surprised by the Brooks love... To be honest I hardly remember his performance.

It's Plummer vs. Brooks now. I could see Brooks winning SAG and GG, but Plummer still taking home the Oscar.

Remaining three nominees are really quite up in the air. I'm thinking:

Patton Oswalt
Kenneth Branagh

The fifth spot is really up for grabs. I mean the name most consistently popping up is Andy Serkis, but the Academy won't go for that....will it?

I suppose Max von Sydow will get in for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

I'd love for Ron Perlman to get some love for Drive as well.

Since this category is so open, I wonder if Jim Broadbent can quietly sneak in for The Iron Lady. Thatcher's dedicated husband...sounds up Oscar's alley, and Broadbent is a previous winner/very respected.

This category is so weird this year.

It's just a change of pace. After four straight years of clear, runaway frontrunners, it's strange for it to be so wide open.

Cue Alan Rickman (I can hope).

Plummer has a HUGE edge. Brooks wasn't nominated by his peers in the Screen Actors Guild.

Branagh is definitely in, but won't win.

The rest is super confusing. Jonah Hill seems strong, but...is Jonah Hill seriously going to be Oscar nominated? For the affable sidekick role?

Patton Oswalt? Viggo?

I like Jonah Hill, but his unlimited amount of good roles and an upcoming nomination makes feel like the two most powerful people in Hollywood made a bet that "I can make this guy a star" "That guy? He's like a short fat Seth Rogan???" "Oh yeah... that guy" *cocktail laugh*