This seems to be a tight race. Perhaps tighter than many of us expected it would be as we watched The Tree of Life on the big screen this summer, mouths agape, and thought this would certainly be the still-unrewarded Emmanuel Lubezki's (Sleepy Hollow, Children of Men) year.

But now there are three other very strong contenders:

Two-time winner Robert Richardson (JFK, The Aviator) for Hugo,
fellow two-time winner Janusz Kaminski (Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan) for War Horse,
and the never nominated Guillaume Schiffman (OSS 117: Cairo, Nest of Spies) for The Artist.

Schiffman is certainly out of his depth in terms of prestige here, but The Artist is the Best Picture frontrunner, and it, of course, is a film with a very distinct visual style. I could see many voters giving a significant portion of the credit for the film's overall charm and whimsy to its cinematographer. Richardson and Kaminski both delivered classic big-screen visual majesty, obviously. Richardson had the added complication of 3-D, and it's widely believed his use of the illusion was the best since Avatar or maybe even the best ever. (I'm not sure if the Academy is "hip" enough to consider this, though.)

All four top contenders are united by a certain nostalgia, three conjured from cinema-influenced dreams of the past, one reflecting the director's sense memories of a Texas childhood.

In the hunt for the final nomination, among others, are previous nominee Darius Khondji (Se7en, Evita) for Midnight in Paris, previous winner Wally Pfister (The Dark Knight, Inception) for Moneyball, and previous nominee Jeff Cronenweth (One Hour Photo, The Social Network) for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

The Artist
Hugo
Midnight in Paris or Harry Potter
The Tree of Life
War Horse

I was tempted to include Melancholia on the poll as a personal favorite, but it won't happen. I'm sure the Academy would even go for the shot-through-a-tea-soaked-rag photography in J. Edgar before it.

The Artist would be the first B&W winner since Schindler's List. Three have been nominated in the interim--Good Night, and Good Luck., The Man Who Wasn't There, and The White Ribbon.

I'm sure you're right about that. A shame though.