Is it Malick's time? War Horse? Jane Eyre? Can Niccol make magic again with Now (Deakins is shooting it too)? Will Lubezki finally win? Can Fincher score a third nom with Girl With The Dragon Tattoo? How about wild cards like Tintin or (ha) The Beaver? How about Martha Marcy May Marlene, which seems like the year's Winter's Bone?

J. Edgar

A Dangerous Method - Cronenberg. Mortensen, Fassbender, Knightley, and Cassel. A Freud/Jung biopic.

The Descendants - Alexander Payne's (About Schmidt, Sideways) new film. Stars George Clooney.

Like Crazy - Indie romance with Anton Yelchin, Felicity Jones, and Jennifer Lawrence. Huge hit at Sundance. Could go the way of (500) Days of Summer--lots of popularity, no Oscar nominations--but we'll see.

On the Road - Walter Salles' (The Motorcycle Diaries) adaptation of Kerouac’s beloved novel. Cast includes Amy Adams, Steve Buscemi, Kirsten Dunst, Garrett Hedlund, Terrence Howard, Viggo Mortensen, Elisabeth Moss, Sam Riley, and Kristen Stewart.

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy - Adaptation of iconic John le Carré spy novel. From the director of Let the Right One In. Stars Gary Oldman, Colin Firth, and Tom Hardy.

The Oscars obviously know nothing about movies. Who gives a damn.

More than anything just looking forward to a bunch of good films.

The King's Speech 2: Talk Angry in 3D will easily sweep.

I'm very skeptical of on the road, primarily due to the casting of garett hedlund as dean moriarty. He was really bad in tron so I think he could totally fuck up the character of neal cassady, which would not be an easy character to get right.

Rango is a very strong Best Animated Feature contender.

That category could be intersting considering Pixar's only offer is a weak looking follow up to their (widely regarded) worst film. It may not be the obvious front-runner and we could actually have a competition, which would be really fun for once.

Other than Rango, the mainstream American animation seems fairly mediocre in general this year. It's hard to imagine, say, Rio or Arthur Christmas being anything more than "cute enough"/meh.

Could be a year where international animation dominates the category.

Tintin is a big question mark.

Even in terms of eligibility, let alone quality.

It's mocap, right? Then it ain't eligible, apparently.

I'm going on a limb and saying We Bought A Zoo will be a surprise mega blockbuster and be a major, major Oscar contender next year.

If Cameron Crowe hasn't shit the bed talent-wise, sure.

Christopher Plummer should be a surefire Best Supporting Actor nominee for Beginners.

So what possibilities do we have so far? Am I missing any major acting frontrunners of the moment?

Best Picture
Midnight in Paris
Tree of Life

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Beginners (Never won)

Best Original Screenplay
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris

Best Animated Feature
Rango

Maybe there's some other film festival flicks I'm missing? I know some folks are realy high on Like Crazy, but it doesn't sound like the sort of thing the Oscars go for. Martha Marcy May Marlene does look pretty fantastic, but it seems foolish to call anything this year's Winter's Bone yet.

I haven't seen the film, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brad Pitt could score a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Tree of Life.

Hopefully Plummer can too, but I think it will be more difficult being that it's such a small film at the Box Office. Hopefully Focus will campaign enough and keep it fresh in people's minds.

Pitt could very well be a Best Supporting Actor contender.

Martha Marcy May Marlene will certainly be a contender.

Rango will probably win it if it were limited to American animation.

Pitt's big push will be for Moneyball this year which could be a $150 m + contender. It's his Blind Side Oscar turn. Backed by the director of Capote, all star cast, based on a true sports story, Aaron Sorkin script, etc. Set for release in late September.

Did I mention that Moneyball was written by the author of "The Blind Side?"

Moneyball might be a lot less mainstream accessible than The Blind Side, though. No "I've never had one before..."--"A room of ya own?"--"A bed."--"..." moments and all.

It seems more, well, inside baseball.

This is really the prime year for a foreign animated film to win for the first time since Spirited Away (not counting British production of W&G). Too bad it's not a great year there either unlike the previous several years.

J. Edgar and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close are both officially due this year, according to BOM. October for the latter and December for the latter.