Any no guts no glory predictions?

Mine:

Albert Brooks doesn't get nominated for Best Supporting Actor and Drive gets 0fer'ed (reasoning, the AMPAs are prone to all out snubbing a film if they mega hate it, and I think they mega hate Drive. It's too arty and bloody and Brooks is rather villain-esque for the Oscars standards)

Bridesmaids gets a Best Picture nomination (reasoning - HUGE Actors guild support, #1 votes, female power, showed up in PGA, 8th BP nomination)

War Horse gets nominated for Best Picture AND Best Director (reasoning: It's Munich slash Iwo Jima. Seems like crowd pleaser of the conservative Oscar films The Reader crowd)

Biggest stretch: Kirsten Dunst gets nominated for Melancholia (reasoning: Long career, yet to be nominated, her career best performance, so lots of phone calls made to do it for Kirsten). Close loses

I apologize to all these films in advance

While Drive may indeed be too aloof and violent for the Academy's tastes, I doubt Brooks' gangster character is too villainous for a category which has seen such nominees/winners as Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, William Hurt in A History of Violence, Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds, and Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men. It's a villain-favoring category.

I'm honestly struggling to come up with any "no guts, no glory" predictions. Everything seems so set in stone. I'll say:

- My Week with Marilyn will be nominated for Best Picture
- The Guard will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay
- The Princess of Montpensier will be nominated for Best Costume Design

A Separation pulls a City of God and gets nominated for both screenplay AND director.

The difference between the two - City of God had an entire year to play in theatres...

I also say War Horse for Piture/Director.

The Tree of Life for Best Picture

If it counts: I'm still predicting Bennett Miller in Best Director. It's this gut feeling I can't get over.

Whom of the DGA nominees do you think will he replace? Payne, Allen or Fincher? (cos' the other two sure as hell are getting in).

Kristin Wiig for BA.

Won't happen I know.

Hmm and maybe Martha Marcy May Marlene will be recognized somehow. Yeah, I'll predict that.

Daniel Craig BSA nom

Potter gets a BP nom.

Allen

And Spielberg may replace Fincher, but I'm not necessarily predicting this yet.

For Tintin? He's a lead in his other 2011 films.

but I still have so much left!

are you implying dope leads to nonsense potter fanboydom? Cause that's silly.

payne gets left out of BD
mulligan gets in for shame

Or maybe he should start.

aw, much more intriguing assertion.

I don't get this sense that Descendants is losing steam and Payne is falling from good graces. It still looks like the #2/3 movie to me, and while it's hardly a flashy directing job I still think he's safely in the 3 or 4 spot.

picture and screenplay should still be lock for nominations. Perhaps I'm letting more personal opinion of his direction work for this movie bias my prediction, I just feel like it could pull a Seabiscuit/Little Miss Sunshine/Finding Neverland.

I agree, the other thing is that there's 3 spots to go between Allen, Fincher, Payne, Miller, and Spielberg. So I wouldn't call Payne a lock. Haz/Scorsese/Allen/Miller/Fincher would be a logical group of 5

and Ryan Gosling get's ZERO nomination

Even though Miller has received ZERO mentions anywhere so far?

Dicaprio misses Best Actor.
Chastain gets nominated for Tree of Life or Take Shelter instead of The Help.
Fincher and Spielberg both get nominated.

Still think Albert Brooks doesn't get nominated as the main shocker

War Horse, Bridesmaids, and My Week With Marilyn all get in w/ 9 noms. Moneyball loses to them all!