Is anyone else starting to feel the wave of King's Speech love will also impact the supporting categories? I don't WANT it to happen, but still.

At this point, I could definitely see Leo/Steinfeld and Bale losing to Bonham Carter and Rush. Best Supporting Actor in particular. If people are 100% voting for The King's Speech in Best Picture and Best Actor, I just have to assume lots'll also put down a vote for Geoffrey Rush. 'Cos he's a charismatic veteran (vs. PR-troubled, intense Bale), he's been doing the appropriate Oscar-nominee rounds, it's been over a decade since his last win, and he's almost as important to the film as Firth.

Bonham Carter would be more of an "oh...all right?" win (she doesn't have a great deal to do in the movie), but this is her second Oscar nomination. And she's been around for a while, from the early Merchant Ivory years to Fight Club to the lucrative run of Tim Burton films. And she had a big 2010 (Alice in Wonderland, Potter 7, The King's Speech). And she just won the BAFTA.

I have this gut feeling (not saying it's anything resembling a fact) that people just don't want to give the Oscar to Melissa Leo, especially not for playing a toxic, bluer-than-blue-collar, emotionally abusive mother. The "Consider me in my fur coat, darling!" FYC ads didn't help matters.

Rush is a lock.

Bale has way to much love surrounding him for Rush to be a lock, and Helena was far too insignificant. I think the Fighter could still take both but the most likely scenario is a split between the two films. Not sure which will win which though.
Tragically I don't see Hailee winning, perhaps like 5% chance.

Although I think THE FIGHTER will get the two supporting Oscars, insignificance has never been a hindrance with supporting roles (Network, Shakespeare in Love, Lust for LIfe)

Insignificance is especially moot when one is playing the rascally Queen Mum in the Best Picture winner.

Yeah, there was no way anyone but Judi Dench was going to win that Oscar, despite 5 minutes of screen time.

Wasn#t Kathy Bates more of a frontrunner back then? I mean Dench lost the Globe and the SAG award...

I could easily see both Rush and Bonham Carter taking Supporting.

I think chances of Rush are way more stronger than Bohman Carter. Rush was very important for TKS and at times even more important that Firth.

Similar to Leo, Carter does not have a significant role but yeah overall the supporting female categories suck this year....specially when winner will be among these two. I think Stienfeld was way more stronger in True Grit than any of these two.

People love Rush in SPEECH. I'm going to say he takes the Oscar. Bonham-Carter isn't as likely, but it's not impossible.

At least Bale and Rush have a focused battle. I doubt many votes will be going to Ruffalo, Hawkes, or Renner.

Best Supporting Actress is more all over the place. The only nominee I doubt'll get many votes is, sadly, Weaver. Just such a tiny movie, and she's a nearly unknown commity in America. Even though Leo has overshadowed Adams this season, I bet Adams will get her fair share of votes because she's an Oscar favorite in general.

Plus there's that stupid controversy about Leo's FYC ad that has actually affected the way people are going to vote in the Supporting category. I saw one or two people polled who said they aren't voting for her now because of it.

Those ads were embarrassing. The fur coat, lol.

But it shouldn't affect people's vote. She didn't suddenly give another performance in The Fighter.

Then again, personal perceptions have always been part of the Oscar equation. If Bale loses to Rush, part of the reason will be Rush's hammy charisma vs. Bale's perceived a-hole status.

I agree they were, but like you said, it doesn't change her performance. I won't say she doesn't deserve to win because of it.

?!?!?

every little bit helps.

Who hasn't lost their cool and yelled at someone at least once during their lives?