For a while there, Portman seemed untoppable. Annette Bening seemed doomed to lose yet another Oscar.

But then Portman's Globes speech happened.
And then No Strings Attached happened.
And then Black Swan received only five nominations, missing in several key categories, including Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

So:



Who's with me?!

Members:

BKB

Ironically if Swank had been nominated, I would have given this a better chance of happening since the unavoidable Bening/Swank conversation could take spotlight further away from Portman. Also No Strings Attached is not bad enough to be her Norbit. I do agree she is dropping behind Bale in term of who has locked up his/her acting category the most (and both are trailing Firth there, who is simply assailable).

What was wrong with her Globes speech??

She's winning it. The film is still doing really well at the box office, and No Strings Attached has received mixed, not horrible reviews.

It has 49% at RT and opened at #1. Hardly grounds for dismissal.

?????

I won't be joining this club.

Also: Her Globes speech? Was I the only one who thought it was cute? ...and Black Swan got 1 more nomination than TKAAR did, so. I just don't really get this mindset that Bening took over starting today, really.

BKB, like for real. GO BACK TO THE HOLE YOU CAME FROM. Your shtick is old.

BKB, like for real. GO BACK TO THE HOLE YOU CAME FROM. Your shtick is old.

All right, BKB, it's you and me, baby.

And this is mainly just a gut feeling, but I thought I could muster a few reasons.

I mean, I do think Bening is the only one who can beat Portman. But I feel like Actress is a category that the far-and-away frontrunner usually has a hard time getting upset, unlike the supporting categories.

Yeah because grading secondary school homework takes ALL DAY EVERY DAY. Bitch.

Why don't you just stay out of this forum where people actually want to talk about the Oscars with some modicum of intelligence and spread your mind-boggling oafishness onto the Real Life section.

I also feel the fact Bening is overdue is still in play. She's Hollywood royalty. Yes, there's this hot young actress who's received most of the attention thus far, but the enormous acting branch will still remember this would be Annette's fourth loss. And she's giving this very warm, very poignant performance opposite Portman's wild-eyed manic act, which could easily alienate older members of the Academy.

What's wrong with the Golden Globes speech? Benning's speech on the other hand seemed robotic and dry. Let's hope she's not there on the podium at the Oscars.

I'm rooting for Natalie Portman all the way, let's hope the best performance by an actress this year prevails.

Yeah, a school teacher who refers to me as "bitch".. Libs, just call it a day and admit you work at fucking WALMART cause if that's the language you use as a school teacher, then I weep for your so called students and their future.... And what the fuck is a "Modicum"??? Jesus, is that even a word or did you just make that shit up, much like you do when you post pretty much everything at this site??? Summer's Eve is your best friend.. Utilize it sweetheart cause it sounds like that time of the month has arrived..

I could have sworn that Annette Bening won an Oscar for The Grifters, so I had dismissed this club.

However, now realizing that this fine actress has never received the Oscar she so richly deserves, I'm going to join this club.

Portman is great in every movie, so her turn will come soon enough - - Bening's taking home the Lifetime Achievement Best Actress Oscar this year! (You can be sure that Warren Beatty is pulling just the right strings as we speak.)

So you're saying I must work at Wal Mart because I'm too stupid to be a teacher, and then accuse me of making the word "modicum" up because it's not real? Alright then.

And I was only calling you a "bitch" because that's what you called me, since you're a hateful lunkheaded troll of the highest order who no doubt does not respect women.

I've seen four or five people asking and no answer in regards to the GG speech. What was so detrimental that she is going to lose this award now Gunslinger?

It was nerdy and undignified where people want class and elegance. It wasn't a huge issue for me, though I did feel it fell flat. But then I saw several people over at Awards Daily mention it and how Globe speeches are seen as like "dry runs" for an Oscar win (how they'll handle themselves on stage, etc.), so I figured there might be something there.

But forget all that: Bening's going to win because she's an incredibly overdue Hollywood legend, and Black Swan is going to alienate lots of Academy members with its finger-skin-ripping ways.

Doubtful. I'd be fine with either winning though. I thought her speech was kind of cute to be honest.

The word legend is used way too much on this site.

I know how ridiculous it must be, but somehow I still am astonished at all these factors (or factors people create) that seemingly go into an award for a best acting performance.

Low box office? Can't win now. Undignified speech at another award show? Can't win. There's the whole "due" nonsense of someone who should've won for X but they didn't so here's a consolation prize for the movie you were just in which often leads to some other nominee--one who perhaps actually deserved it for the performance they were, y'know, nominated for--becoming the one who is then "due" another year over another actor and the cycle continues. Also a movie may simply peak too early and become the "boring" choice, or the other awards (DGA, PGA, SAG, etc until the end of time) don't recognize something then the Academy shuns it as well so as not to be too out-of-touch with all the other rich, famous people. Did I miss any other "factors"? Oh yeah, the Academy also loves disqualifying things for nonsense a bunch.

I mean, I know awards shows are big circle jerks anyway, but maybe they might not be such an astonishing joke if sometimes they'd try awarding what would be considered the "best" whatever of that year instead of all the other nonsense that takes hold. End yearly Oscar rant.

The minutia is the best part of the Oscar season.

Anyone older than 5 knows it's a lot of political b.s. But the political b.s.--the backlashes, the ever-shifting "perceptions," who is due, who is too young--has its own appeal, IMO. It's movie-themed reality TV.

Nothing you said is news to anyone. To call such a rant "banal" would be too kind even. The Oscar race is what it is. If you don't find it entertaining, don't click into the section, right? You could be working the phones, raising money for relief in Darfur.