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State of the Race - 12/23/2010
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Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Fri Dec 24, 2010 1:00 am ]
Post subject:  State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Well, now that most critics circles are in and most guilds still ahead of us.


Best Picture


1. The Social Network - winner
2. Black Swan
3. Inception
4. The King's Speech

After that Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, The Fighter and True Grit are also looks, but the first four are by far the strongest at the moment, IMO.

That leaves the final spot between The Town, Winter's Bone and maybe Another Year. The Town has the box-office and the high-profile cast, but it missed a SAG nom for Best Ensemble. Anoter Year might be too small...though the Academy really likes Mike Leigh. Winter's Bone is my current favorite as it has received a lot of love so far and might pick up three other major noms.


Best Director

The Top 4 seems pretty clear cut.

1. David Fincher (The Social Network) - clear winner
2. Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
3. Chris Nolan (Inception)
4. Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)

The fifth spot is definitely between Danny Boyle, the Coens and David O'Russell. I don't seem Weir making a late entrance at this point. Frankly, though, it would not shock me to see Hooper snubbed...there's a distinct lack of passion for his film. Right now I'd guess the Coens for the final spot, but Boyle might replace Hooper.


Best Actor

Once again, four clear entries:

1. Colin Firth (The King's Speech) - likely winner
2. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) - could actually upset, if anyone
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

The fifth spot is very much up in the air. Could be Duvall for Get Low. Or Bardem for Biutiful. Or Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine. Or even Mark Wahlberg for The Fighter if the Fighter makes it really big. Bardem's performance seems to be really strong and showy, but the movie is just too small, it seems. Gosling is due after the Lars and the Real Girl snub, but Duvall is a veteran, so I am going with him.


Best Actress

The first three are clear:

1. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
2. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)

Leslie Manville, Hilary Swank, Michelle Williams and Nicole Kidman make up the rest. It's really a difficult call at this point. Manville's performance is apprently terrific and as I said, the Academy likes Leigh's films. Swank seems like a bland choice, but then again, the Academy went for Blanchett in The Golden Age. And I don't see Williams AND Kidman both making it, as both are in small and heavy films.

So I'm guessing Manville and Williams.

Hailee Steinfeld might make a surprising appearance, though...depends on the whole category confusion thing.

The winner also does not seem clear to me. A very close race between Bening and Portman. Portman is clearly ahead in the critics awards, but Bening is way more overdue and it might be the only opportunity to honor The Kids Are All Right.


Best Supporting Actor


1. Christian Bale (The Fighter) - he'll win
2. Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

After that, no ranking is possible. Matt Damon (True Grit), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Jeremy Renner (The Town) and Andrew Garfield (The Social Network).

I see Garfield getting in, simply on the strength of the film and Hawkes is getting a bit of support. No idea about the final spot, but I'll just say Renner because I don't want to see Mark Ruffalo as an Oscar nominee.


Best Supporting Actress

Definitely by far the most open field among the major categories. No ranking is even possible at this point

The nominees will be:

Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)

Normally, I'd name Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) as a lock as well, but she missed a SAG nod and could go the sad way of Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married (very strong critics support, but not Oscar nod). Mila Kunis (Black Swan) could very well take her spot.

The winner is really up in the air, though I am leaning towards Melissa Leo in what seems to be a powerhouse performance.


Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Social Network - lock to win
2. Toy Story 3

After that...The Ghost Writer seems like a solid contender here as well as Winter's Bone.

Also in the mix: The Town, Shutter Island, 127 Hours and True Grit. True Grit will probably get the nod.


Best Original Screenplay

1. Inception
2. The King's Speech
3. The Kids Are All Right
4. Black Swan
5. The Fighter

That seems to the the Top 5, though Another Year could sneak in.

The winner is a close call, though Nolan is really overdue and this could be the major award given to Inception.

___________________________________________________________________________

In other words, only three of the major eight categories seem rather uncertain at this point as far as the winner is concerned (Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress)



As for overall nominations count, I for the BP contenders:


Black Swan - 11

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Editing
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing


Inception - 10

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Visual Effects
Best Score
Best Art Direction
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Editing
Best Cinematography


True Grit - 10

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Make Up


The King's Speech - 9

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Costume Design
Best Editing
Best Art Direction


The Social Network - 8

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Score
Best Editing
Best Cinematography


The Fighter - 6

Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing


Winter's Bone - 4

Best Picture
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Adapted Screenplay


127 Hours - 4

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Sound Editing


Toy Story 3 - 4

Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing


The Kids Are All Right - 3

Best Picture
Best Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Author:  Shack [ Fri Dec 24, 2010 3:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Disagree about Inception being in the same league as Social Network, Black Swan, and King's Speech for strength. I think True Grit is above Inception and The Fighter, 127 Hours are level and dueling for that BD spot though it really should be Hooper who misses.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Fri Dec 24, 2010 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Aside from its Weinsteins and Brit flick status, there isn't much going on for The King's Speech. It is definitely lacking in passion and Black Swan is stronger in the techs department.
Author:  xiayun [ Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
The King's Speech does feel like another The Queen now, critically acclaimed (12 100s at MC do indicate some passion) but award focus ending up being the acting department instead of the whole film. It does have one advantage over The Queen in that it has more of an acting ensemble and could end up with three acting noms.

Black Swan strikes me as the Inglourious Basterds of this year, a film that people didn't give much chance of winning at the beginning, had love-hate reviews and didn't end up that high of an average at MC, but in the end became THE darkhorse and only real challenger to the prohibitive favorite.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
The Queen was stronger in the Screenplay department, though. It was the Screenplay awards from the Chicago critics, the New York Critics, the Toronto critics and even the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Dec 28, 2010 11:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Even though it is just an eligibility issue, I'd still say that Inception's very likely WGA win now clearly puts it above The King's Speech in the race and close to Black Swan at #2. Need to keep in mind that it'll likely be winning techs like crazy. Any less than four tech awards would really surprise me at this point and frankly it could win six (both Sound awards, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score). It will lose editing toThe Social Network, but could still win Best Original Screenplay, bringing the total number of quite possible wins to seven.
Author:  _axiom [ Wed Dec 29, 2010 6:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Inception only has VFX in the bag. All others could be a toss up. It's probably getting one Sound award too.
Author:  Tyler [ Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
What movie can really compete in the Sound categories with it?
Author:  Price [ Thu Dec 30, 2010 5:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Tyler wrote:
What movie can really compete in the Sound categories with it?


Iron Man 2, TRON, Toy Story 3, although Inception is probably the favorite.
Author:  David [ Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
It's going to be so sad if Jacki Weaver's snubbed for Animal Kingdom. :( She's so fierce, so electrifying. To nominate Mila Kunis or Helena Bonham Carter over her is absurd, but I could see it happening. And, alas, the wonderful Hailee Steinfeld will occupy a spot in Best Supporting Actress, despite the fact she is the lead in True Grit and only a person with significant brain damage would suggest otherwise.
Author:  Tyler [ Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Price wrote:
Tyler wrote:
What movie can really compete in the Sound categories with it?


Iron Man 2, TRON, Toy Story 3, although Inception is probably the favorite.


Toy Story 3 will probably be nominated here (or at least should be to make up for the snubs of the first two's innovative work) and it's a BP contender, but it's not very showy at all. Iron Man 1 only got one nomination in the Sound categories and was way more well-liked. Tron is showy enough, but it's a weakly-received film. Inception's a frontrunner and a loud flick.
Author:  David [ Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
127 Hours should figure into both sound categories. Amazing work.
Author:  Johnny Dollar [ Sat Jan 01, 2011 12:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
No matter how things shake down, no way does Black Swan walk away with the most nominations.

You are being awfully generous towards it in the tech categories. I'm guessing you haven't seen it. Art direction?
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Jan 01, 2011 6:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
Johnny Dollar wrote:
You are being awfully generous towards it in the tech categories. I'm guessing you haven't seen it. Art direction?


There's no reason it should miss. It's a beautifully crafted film.
Author:  Johnny Dollar [ Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
um ok

don't be too disappointed!

In a land of showy period pieces and blockbustery blockbusters, it is folly to think that Black Swan is going to get into costume design (for what? rehearsal tights and costumes for a Swan Lake performance?) and art direction. And BOTH sound categories! For something this divisive? No way.

We are talking about the Oscars, not weighing the effectiveness of any of these elements. There is nothing wrong with Black Swan's costume design or art direction, other than the fact that neither is appropriately award baity. The picture is far less designed than I expected.
Author:  Johnny Dollar [ Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
I see that the "Broadcast Film Critics", AKA the junketeers, nominated it for Art Direction though. lol

In reality Oscar would rather throw in Secretariat or Harry Potter or Robin Hood or Shutter Island or some crap. And so they will

(alice in wonderland btw is the worst designed movie in history)
Author:  torrino [ Sat Jan 01, 2011 6:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: State of the Race - 12/23/2010
but tim burton's style is so unique
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