Time for some individual threads to start.


I'd say the favorites right now are:

David Fincher (The Social Network) - he's a near-lock to win
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
The Coens (True Grit)
Danny Boyle (127 Hours)


I think these six are far ahead of the rest, though obviously one won't make it...and I'm having this feeling that Nolan might just miss it.

Unless True Grit is not all that of course...

Fincher
Affleck
Boyle
Hooper
Nolan

Aronofsky
Coens
Fincher
Hooper
Nolan

Fincher has this for sure

Add Peter Weir in the race, and suddenly Fincher may no longer be a lock, considering Weir is more overdue. The reception from Telluride is supposedly good, but the question will be how good.

I would love to see Weir recognized. He may be my favorite director.

But I still bet Fincher has it.

The Way Back would be very much in if it had a decent distributor. The word is excellent.

Unless multiple films crash and burn (true grit, 127 hours, black swan,) affleck has no chance of a nom.

Right now I'm thinking Boyle is the most likely to get edged out, Hooper, Coens, and Fincher are almost definitely there, I'm confident in Black Swan, and Nolan is simply not getting snubbed for Inception, there's no way. If Black Swan doesn't work out and nothing surprises us (Another Year?) then Boyle is next in line imo.

The early reviews on RT are positive but not emphatically so. They seem to say there is a lot of pretty imagery and strong craft, but it's kind of meandering and dull and audiences won't like it. I'm having trouble picturing it as a big piece of the race.

Feeling confident in

Fincher - near lock to win
Hooper - TKS looks like 3rd strongest movie at worst
Coens - This year's Quentin
Boyle - 127 Hours looks solid for nom + very director friendly movie

Last spot I'll give to Nolan

so far this year:

Nolan
Fincher
Unkrich
Vaughn
Aronofsky

Vaughn?

As in Kick-Ass?

David Fincher has a better shot at winning Best Director than The Social Network does at winning Best Picture. Even if True Grit and 127 Hours are really well received, Danny Boyle and The Coen Bros. just won. Event if The King's Speech beats The Social Network, Fincher is more due than Hooper. I doubt Christopher Nolan, Ben Affleck or Darren Aronofosky will win for a variety of reasons, including all their films being something of genre pieces. Peter Weir and Mike Leigh could both be seen as due, but it's not really up to them if either The Way Back or Another Year picks up enough steam.

Boyle is a lock for a nom.


Three out of five BD spots seems quite settled, IMO. Hooper, Boyle and Fincher are in.

Nolan, Arnonofsky, the Coens and Weir will duke it out for the last two spots.

I still want to predict Affleck. I just can't over the feeling: The Town has been so well-received, not just in elite circles, but driven by genuine populist adoration. And it's so solidly made in a classic, Lumet-esque way.

Hooper, Fincher, and Boyle are in. Nolan is not going to be snubbed here and then Aronofosky and Leigh already look strong and Coen's and Weir have great potential although words still early on them. This is a very tight competitive race, townmay get a BP nom but Affleck just doesn't have a prayer here, imo.

I've dropped Affleck, though I still believe The Town could figure into Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

But it just became too hard/surreal to keep him in over, say, Weir or the Coens. I'm now predicting:

Boyle
Fincher
Hooper
Nolan
Weir

Sounds likely there, yes. Coens or Aronofsky could also make it, though. Aronofsky has the advantage of having been ignored for a while now.