She is locked for the oscar and the film is the FR for BP, i dont think there will be a split.

I dunno. If anyone can fuck up a momentous, historic occasion like this, it's the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Great going for Bigelow

If The Hurt Locker wins, they're going to alter their voting system again to only #1s. Sort of a worst case scenario win for them, as the film is not very good and nobody's seen it.

I think they'll split it this year. The Hurt Locker will get its due in the BD category, and a great film like Inglourious (by virtue of the voting system) or Avatar will win.

I think whatever method they choose, The Hurt Locker is likely to win BP because everything shows it's beloved by people who have seen it, not just critics. And many have seen it, at least those tens of thousands PGA and DGA members, as well as those who have made it the current top selling DVD. It's well deserved too.

I'm not sure what's worse, the fact that you said The Hurt Locker is not very good or that you called Avatar a great film.

second that

Avatar will have the all-time BO record after tremendous word of mouth gives it a ridiculous 9.00+ IM & its Metacritic score is pretty damn high. Not sure I need to defend that as a great movie. (edit: also just to clarify, I'm not an Avatar fanboy...Inglourious was my favorite movie of the year and Avatar was in my top 10 but not top 5).

As far as THL, the problem is that the movie is terribly terribly unrealistic. And not just in small ways, but on the scale that pretty much EVERY scene after the first one (which was excellent) could not, would not ever happen. I realize movies take creative liberties and that's fine normally. Obviously Avatar is terribly unrealistic too, but...it's also set up to be science fiction so it feels right when you're watching it. THL, on the other hand, has a dishonest tone. It sets you up like you're watching a gritty "true" Iraq movie when it's anything but that. It's the writers version of Iraq, and it's a terrible one. Add on to that that the character is more of a caricature than someone you can truly empathize with and you have a movie that isn't very good. I realize it's getting praise but that's probably because people were riveted during the sniper scene or the run-through-the-streets-of-Baghdad scene. Those of us who know a bit more were rolling our eyes and wondering WTF was going on. NOTHING in any of those scenes could happen. I could break it down even further but this doesn't seem like the thread. Suffice it to say, the writer has no clue what it's like nor did he care to know what it was like. And even without the realism he didn't capture the internal struggle particularly well. If you want to see Iraq done right watch Generation Kill or The Messenger.

This will be a Shakespeare in Love type win that people will scratch their heads over...buyer's remorse will set in: did we really just award this movie?

By the way....the reason THL didn't do well in the box office? The reviews were great. There was advertising. Um...nobody who saw it told their friends to go see it. It flopped.

So getting back to my original point, like the year before when you had a change to 10 because the system can't nominate a film that was honored by 4 of the 5 major guilds, was the biggest audience film of the year, and was one of the top critical films of the year, you think AMPAS wouldn't react to a mediocre flop winning BP by virtue of their new system? I think they would. But I also don't think THL will win. Plenty of time for them to come to their senses.

lol

First of all, word of mouth does not equal greatness. Do you think The Blind Side is a great film?

Second, I don't even know where to begin with your Hurt Locker criticism. It's unrealistic? I suppose you've spent time in Iraq, then?

I also like how you say Avatar has a solid critical reception but The Hurt Locker's (even better critical reception) is based on two scenes and obviously the critics are wrong.

Shakespeare in Love is also a great film, so chalk another one up as being wrong.

And The Hurt Locker did bad at the box office because it never had a wide release and had no advertising. Summit fucked up.

I'm pretty sure no one will be saying that The Hurt Locker, which was honoured by ALL of the major guilds (and even won some, too!) and was THE top critical film of the year, winning will be a mistake on the Academy's part. Except for you, I suppose.

Are we really going to talk about caricreatures between Avatar and the hurt locker

The deserving director won.

AWESOME! She deserves it!

The Hurt Locker is definitely not better than Avatar, I think the directing is = equal, easily hurt locker and Avatars strongest attribute.

Her win wasn't a surprise so it doesn't change anything about a split.

Definitely DGA was supposed to go to Katheryn on the first place why are we debating about the Best Movie here. And DGA means Directorial award and not Film. That means there is still a chance between The Hurt Locker and Avatar.

Though the PGA win was still debatable I think Production wise Avatar was much better.

You guys don't even know what a director does, do you?