I'll just go out on a limb and predict Jeremy Renner to win Best Actor at the Oscars. Is it a stretch? Yeah. Would it make for a huge surprise? Indeed.


Anyway I am of course thinking of Adrian Brody back in 2002 when predicting this. Brody won Best Actor at the Oscars despite winning no major precursors.


This is what Brody had prior to the Oscars:

Wins:

Boston Society of Film Critics Award
National Society of Film Critics Award

Nominations:

Online Film Critics Society
SAG
BAFTA
Golden Globes


This is what Renner has as of now:

Wins:

National Society of Film Critics Award
Las Vegas Film Critics Society Award
Chicago Film Critics Award
Boston Society Of Film Critics Award
Online Film Critics Society Award
National Board of Review: Breakthrough Performance by an Actor


Nominations:

Broadcast Film Critics Association
SAG
Washington Film Critics
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
San Diego Film Critics
Houston Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle
Indiana Film Critics (Runner-Up there)
Southeastern Film Critics Association (Runner-Up there)
Utah Film Critics (Runner-Up there)


________________________________________________________________________________

Granted that's not much but it's not like Brody got more.

The comparison fits. Both are rather small but critically acclaimed films. The Pianist also went on to win best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. There's a good chance for The Hurt Locker to win Director and Screenplay as well.

Right now George Clooney and Jeff Bridges seem to be the frontrunners. Firth's performance is not making huge waves at the moment and Morgan Freeman is just the token nominee right now.

Back in 2002 we also had two frontrunners: jack Nicholson for About Schmidt and Daniel Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York. Nicholson won the Globe, while DDL got BAFTA and SAG.

I think if Clooney or Bridges manages to win both SAG and GG...then it'll be one of them. However if they split the two, then there's a good chance someone else will break out...like Renner.

The movie subject matter played a part in his win. I'm positive of that. There's just something about those types of films that award shows gravitate to.

I've never heard of Renner before and DDL losing to Brody was a very big upset so if Clooney were to lose to a Renner type then that would be equally huge.

I just don't think it will happen because the Iraq war isn't that penetrating a subject like the Holocaust and that film has made practically nothing at the box office, so hardly anyone has seen it.

I'll stick with Clooney this year.

I completely agree. There have been a lot of movies on Iraq war recently though not as powerful but not completely outrageous. Also his character does not portray any emotion which could go against him. Lot of people would not have heard about this movie that is the biggest disadvantage. Next the type of role he plays is made for the movie and not to show acting skills it is more of a one-dimensional role.

I am still going with Clooney / Bridges as front runners.

Well superstitiously Brody had been merely nominated before Oscars whereas Renner has won approx. equal to the number of awards Broody was nominated

It's not too much of a stretch, but it may be too subtle.