It'll be Milk. Mark my words.


Not that I think Slumdog will actually lose, no. But should a huge upset happen, I don't think it'll be by The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (which gives me Gangs of New York vibes, as far as the Oscars go).


Why? Because it is probably the most "important" of the nominees (Prop 8!). Because it is a biopic. Because it will likely win Best Original Screenplay and has a solid shot at Best Actor, meaning that it could potentially win two awards. And I also think that the Academy will make up for Brokeback Mountain one day.


We probably won't find out anyway because Slumdog will win, but yeah...if an upset happens...

I agree

considering its my favourite out the 5, works for me. If Milk wins 2 SAGs tonight (lead actor, ensemble) we might have something to talk about.

For a biopic it is pretty strong with 8 noms, among them all the important ones like Actor, Director, Screenplay and Editing.

Aviator got 11 and A Beautiful Mind, 8. So yeah, Milk is sitting pretty with overall noms for a biopic.

I agree, though I also still believe "Benjamin Button" has a major, major shot. But the factors in Milk's favor you listed are very convincing, especially the *importance* element (Prop 8 has gay rights on the country's mind more than usual).

Benjamin still has a shot. It's got the big box office, it's an epic, it has lots of Academy favorites in it, it's got a Forrest Gump vibe.

Forrest Gump had better reviews, was much bigger and had less significant competition (because smaller and/or weirder).

I thought Gump and Button had about the same reviews?

DIB is right, they both have mid 70s scores in RT. Crash had that as well if you want a recent BP winner for comparison.

Gump also came out in the summer, less fresh in the mind of Academy voters.

Don't pay attention to RT.

MC has an 82 for Gump and 69 for Button. The backlash for Gump came late in the game.

Milk has the upper hand, IMO.

I feel Slumdog is just as locked as NCFOM was last year, even more so because I have the sense that academy and people in general can't wait to award the film due to its theme and the current environment. No real backlash has formed yet, or any concerted campaign for an alternative.

And it's going to win BAFTA, unlike NCFOM.

Hmm, no. Brokeback if anything just taught us the academy is MORE old/conservative/intolerant than the rest of the precursors. Its also clearly weak with the British block.

I think it's like 97% Slumdog 2% Button 1% Milk or The Reader, though

0% for Nixon then?

I don't think a scenario exists where Frost/Nixon could win BP.

I agree, it's more of a hypothetical WHAT IF scenario.

...

Ignore this. I hit QUOTE instead of EDIT.

I know no one can even fathom the possibility but if we are talking about WHAT IF scenarios that we know won't happen, consider The Reader.

I mean, it did manage to nab enough #1s or #2s or whatever to get in over The Dark Knight, Wall-E, and The Wrestler (mind you this film has become one of the best reviewed movies of well, all time... something that has quietly gone unnoticed: 98% with 176 reviews!). Also, remember The Pianist/holocaust.

And it did manage enough support to get Director, Picture, Screenplay noms and bump Kate Winslet's RevRoad performance out of the race. To me, that was the biggest surprise Oscars morning... I wonder how close she was to splitting the vote and not getting any.

I'd say 78.9% Slumdog, 8% Button, 7% Milk, 6% The Reader, .1% Forst/Nixon

60% Slumdog
25% Benjamin Button
12% Milk
1.5% Frost/Nixon
1.5% The Reader

I wouldn't be that surprised at this point, though completely disappointed. The Pianist managed to get Best Director and Best Actor, along with Screenplay. It's another meandering Holocaust film.

The Pianist is actually about the Holocaust, while The Reader simply uses it as a setting for the story. It doesn't feel anywhere near as "important" as The Pianist was. And of course there was the factor of how personal the story is to Polanski. And not to mention it's much better reviewed and considered as truly one of the best for the year by many.

Also, I believe as Lecter said in his thread, academy members, especially among directors, were trying to get The Reader nominated to honor its two producers who passed away. But they're not going to award it with big wins except for Winslet. They already felt they did their job.

And...Polanski is a bigger name than Daldry. Much bigger. The Pianist was also a film as personal as it gets for him.

Oddly enough, Daldry lost that year for The Hours to Polanski