You get up to early

Pfft my tracking equipment can pinpoint you down to 10 feet!!

Anyways......................awards!!

Into the Wild leads with most nominations! Wow. This baby is in for the Oscars now.

Peace,
Mike

That press conference was quite possibly the most unorganized thing I've ever seen in my life

But anyways, mostly solid nominations. I'm very happy for Enchanted and ecstatic that Amy Adams got nominated, as well as "That's How You Know" and Alan Menken's score. Would have liked to have seen a little more Atonement love, but I'm glad Joe Wright got nominated and it's up for BP.

Go Sweeney, Juno and No Country For Old Men as well

Well, nothing was cut out to officially narrow down the race or anything. Too bad. Charlie Wilson's War is completely dead now, but it already was really. American Gangster is now still in the race. And all the rest of the usuals are still in the race, still in the top 10. As I see it, the 5 Oscar Best Picture films are in that top 10 list. 5 of those 10 will be the eventual Best Picture nominees.


Peace,
Mike

The whole thing seems messed up. I mean, they have a nominee for a movie from two years ago. Were all the technical errors a mean joke at Marisa Tomei's expense.

Biggest write-off: Cate Blanchett for The Golden Age. Why the hell is she even there? I was thinking if Jolie got nominated here, she'd stand a better chance, but Blanchett being there just makes it look like they're only looking at big names.

Despite Wild getting the most nods, something about it doesn't scream "Going to make best picture". It's really small and not particularly political.

James Horner was nominated for The New World, and I have no freakin' idea why.

By the way, the Best Actress mistake has been fixed on Oscarwatch. Marion Cottilard IS indeed nominated. The typo means both Christie and Cottilard are in. There are 6 Best Actress nominees.

Peace,
Mike

No Ensemble for TWBB isn't too surprising, but no Director or Screenplay? Eep.

Into the Wild is particularly dominant with the most noms, which makes that Song snub all the odder.

Atonement's only acting noms unfortunately belong to Redgrave and Ronan (Screwed by the Young Actress category ala Breslin last year), but it's still one of five films with a Directing nom.

NCFOM is probably the most stable film here, not getting any surprise noms but still getting in everywhere it was expected to.

American Gangster is kinda dead. No Washington, no Scott, and only a Song mention outside of Picture.

Gosling shows up again after showing up at Chicago - is he seriously a threat? And Viggo is back in the race! Langella's snub shouldn't be too surprising, as he only starting growing this weekend. The Hirsch nomination is great for him though.

S. Actor is beginning to looks REALLY locked down.

S. Actress - no Mann. Should Swinton get a Globe nom she's probably also locked down for a nom with Ryan and Blanchett. Redgrave and Keener will both be in excellent positions if they can repeat there as well.

I was gonna try ranking the Best Picture nominees in terms of likeliness of getting to the Big Night, but the only rankings I could figure out were NCFOM and Sweeney in the Top 2 and The Kite Runner and Gangster in the bottom two. I'll wait until the Globes before figuring any of this out. I might predict winners later.

Oh what the hell, I'll predict now:

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Best Acting Ensemble
No Country for Old Men

Best Director
Sean Penn - Into the Wild

Best Writer
Diablo Cody - Juno

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille

Best Young Actor
Ahmad Khan Mahmoodzada - The Kite Runner

Best Young Actress
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Best Comedy Movie
Juno

Best Family Film
Hairspray

Best Picture Made for Television
The War

Best Foreign Language Film
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Song
"Falling Slowly", Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, Jesse L. Martin and Cast - Once

Best Composer
Dario Marianelli - Atonement

Best Documentary
No End In Sight

American Gangster is not in anymore either, I'd say. It couldn't even get an acting nom for Denzel Washington or a directing nom for Scott.

CWW is pretty much dead, but a writing nom is likely.

Yeah...you know what? Had American Gangster been released on December 7th or Dec 14th, it'd probably make many more appearances.

I think Charlie Wilson's War is showing that release date doesn't matter much if you're a ho-hum picture.

And that missing Song nom brings the nomiantion total for Into the Wild to 8. Wow.

Denzel Washington will be lucky to get in the final 5. As for the movie and Scott, they're pretty much out of the race.

I'm guessing these will be the final 5 for BP (in alphabetical order):

Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood


with Juno and Michael Clayton at a close #6 and #7... sounds just right, at least for today lol.


Just a quick question: has the BFCA's leader failed to get a BP nom in recent years?


Another edit: god, Juno has too many noms to miss BP too.. ugh. This is a pretty valid line-up, but two movies out of these 7 have to go.

Some statistics to help us out - or to make things more confusing:

Movies with Picture+Director (5):

Sweeney Todd
No Country for Old Men
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (looks like we found at least one BD without BP at the Oscars methinks...)
Into the Wild
Atonement


Movies with 3 acting nominees:

Into the Wild
Michael Clayton


Movies with Picture+Director+Screenplay:
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild


Movies with Picture+Director+Screenplay+Ensemble:
No Country for Old Men

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly showed up again, and in best film list! This is a very legit contender now.

Tood bad. Atonement's BP cause is DOA now. They didn't even nominated Knightley. And that they nominate Redgrave of all Brionys is a joke

My general comments on the BFCA noms:


The Kite Runner and American Gangster are still being remembered obviously. If The Kite Runner keeps rising at RT and MC, it might become an 11th hour nomination contender, but what is essential for it right now to have any kind of a chance is a GG nom for Best Drama. If it misses that out, I really don't think it'll make it far.

For American Gangster to miss a directing and an acting nom is pretty much its death, though. It might appear at the Globes, they love stars and big films, but its best chance at the Oscars is a sole Washington nom right now and even that is getting less likely with each day. Too bad, he and Crowe would deserve it.

Charlie Wilson's War is OUT, but Hoffman and especially Sorkin's screenplay are still very much in for noms.


Into the Wild received a big big boost here, but I feel it won't do too well at the Globes.


Viggo Mortensen got the very much needed boost by now. I think he's a legit player for a nom now. Only Clooney, Lewis and Depp are clearly ahead of him, the last two spots are rather open.


Cate Blanchett's nom for Elizabeth reminds me of them nominating Adam Beach for Flags of our Fathers last year.


I think that Casey Affleck is almost certain to get a BSA nom at the Oscars now, so far only Bardem has received more support than him.


Redgrave getting the only acting nom out of the Atonement ensemble is simply weird.


Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett are locks for noms in the Best Sup. Actress category now.


Lumet's nom for Directing gave him some boost as well, he might fight his way into the 5th BD spot this year, but the competition is fierce.

Winners Predictions:


Best Picture

No Country for Old Men


Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood


Best Actress

Ellen Page - Juno


Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men


Best Supporting Actress

Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone


Best Acting Ensemble

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead


Best Director

Sean Penn - Into the Wild


Best Writer

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men


Best Animated Feature

Ratatouille


Best Young Actor

Ahmad Khan Mahmoodzada - The Kite Runner


Best Young Actress

Saoirse Ronan - Atonement


Best Comedy Movie

Juno


Best Family Film

Hairspray


Best Picture Made for Television


Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee


Best Foreign Language Film

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly


Best Song

"That's How You Know", Amy Adams - Enchanted


Best Composer

Dario Marianelli - Atonement


Best Documentary

No End In Sight

yess into the wild love!! Catherine Keener. woooo

To add what Lecter said, the supporting actor lineup is looking to be set in a hurry.

Considering BTDKYRD didn't make their top 10, Lumet's nomination shows there is some strong sentiment on his "comeback". The director branch could feel the same. I have a feeling that we're going to see a 3/5 split between picture and directors this year; there are simply so many more contenders, and respected masters, in the director category.

Angelina Jolie got another mention, after Chicago yesterday. She is certainly to be included by GG, so she is firmly in the race, maybe even ahead of Linney at this point. I'm replacing Adams with Jolie in my actress predictions.

Yeah, it'll match up 5/5 again in BP. Can't see anyone outside those getting in.

I think Michael Clayton could've just about assured itself a nom here if it got Director. It'll have nominations in its 3 eligible acting categories, it's showed up at just about every group, excellent showing on the critic top tens, overall kinda safe choice. I'm still putting it in but Gilroy could probably be replaced by Penn or Schnabel or Lumet or something.

So Monday at 9pm, on VH1. With a pre-show at 8.

Is this gonna have to be our GG replacement?

Final predictions:

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men
Alt. Juno

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Alt. George Clooney - Michael Clayton

Best Actress
Ellen Page - Juno
Alt. Julie Christie - Away From Her

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Alt. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Alt. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There

Best Acting Ensemble
No Country for Old Men
Alt. Juno

Best Director
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Alt. Sean Penn - Into the Wild

Best Writer
Diablo Cody - Juno
Alt. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille
Persepolis

Best Young Actor
Michael Cera - Juno
Alt. Michael Cera - Superbad

Best Young Actress
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Alt. Nikki Blonsky - Hairspray

Best Comedy Movie
Juno
Alt. Knocked Up

Best Family Film
Hairspray
Alt. Enchanted

Best Picture Made for Television
The War
Alt. Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee

Best Foreign Language Film
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days

Best Song
"Falling Slowly", Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, Jesse L. Martin and Cast - Once
Alt. "Come So Far", Queen Latifah, Nikki Blonsky, Zac Efron, Elijah Kelley - Hairspray

Best Composer
Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Alt. Jonny Greenwood - There Will Be Blood

Best Documentary
No End In Sight
Alt. The King of Kong

No Country for Old Men - 4
Juno - 4
Atonement - 2

I don't have cable, so I'm relying entirely on here and AwardsDaily for my results.

I most likely will be. And the preshow too!