Seriously, I don't know whether I'm the only one who has this impression, but this year seems like the first year in a while with very few clear frontrunners for the win at this point. In almost every major category there is no clear favorite which seems like the polar opposite to last year when Scorsese, Hudson and Mirren (and to some extent Whitaker) were all locked up very early in this season.

As far as Best Picture goes, there is really not a single clear frontrunner at this point. Seriously, there are 3-4 flicks that could end up taking it home. Sweeney Todd, Atonement, There Will Be Blood, NCFOM all could win it...

Best Supporting Actor is one of the few that is rather clear, even only due to the overall weak catregory when compared to the frontrunner, Javier Bardem. Best Actor should go to Daniel Day-Lewis, but a The Pianist-like upset could occur as well, as competition is really strong this year with Washington, Depp, Clooney, McAvoy all being praised for their turns.

Best Actress is wide open and contrary to popular belief, I don't think Best Supporting Actress is locked up yet for Blanchett. Someone from Atonement might just as well win.

Best Director is equally unclear. The Coens have a good shot, but PTA, Wright and Burton all might win too.


Last year, we had 3 locked categories and The Departed has been a frontrunner for Picture all along anyway with its reviews, overdue factor and the box-office. The year before, Brokeback Mountain has been the frontrunner all the way (only to be upset at the end, but it was still a clear frontrunner, something we don't have this year) and Hoffman/Witherspoon/Weisz were rather locked as well.

There are parallels to that in most recent years and I think the fact that this year is a bit different makes it all the more interesting!

Yeah, Depp and Day-Lewis are frontrunners, probably, yet none of them won the NBR, heh. And the voters at least saw Sweeney Todd.

Also, Cotillard won't be the frontrunner. When was the last time a foreign actor/Actress was a frontrunner in any category? Benigni's win was a surprise... Christie, Knightley and Page are ahead of her I'd say.

And as for the Globes...I dunno. Listening to them, Cold Mountain was a frontrunner back in 2003, or at least a certain nominee...then it missed a BP nom even.

I wouldn't be surprised if Julie Christie pulls a Helen Mirren on the critics circles. I don't think she deserves it, but that's my feeling right now.

I think NCFOM is becoming more of a frontrunner than The Departed ever was last year (this will be very clear after LAFC & NYFCC this Sunday and Monday), although the NBR curse should prevent it from winning.