I'm guessing No Country. It's just a massive critical sensation, and it's also an Awards film, so I see it dominating the many awards ceremonies. Whether or not that factors into how the Academy treats it is yet to be seen.

Predictions:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Best Actress: Ellen Page (Juno)
Best Director: Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Best Foreign Film: 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days
Best Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Best Cinematographer: Robert Elswit (There Will Be Blood)
Best Non-Fiction Film: No End in Sight
Best Animated Picture: Ratatouille



Yeah, pretty much a sweep for NCFOM is what I predict.

No AO Scott, so Atonement could still show up here. David Ansen, Peter Travers, Lou Lumenick, Joe Morgenstern, Rex Reed, and Andrew Sarris all gave it perfect grade. That's a strong contingent. And the only dissenting voice from this group I read so far is from Anthony Lane.

EDIT: oops, not sure what I saw, but Lane isn't listed.

Best Picture: Atonement
Alternate: No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Alternate: Benicio del Toro (Things We Lost in the Fire)
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Alternate: Laura Linney (The Savages...just so I don't go with Cotillard/Christie for everything...I'm pretty sure Cotillard will get this one, though.)
Best Director: Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Alternate: Joe Wright (Atonement)
Best Foreign Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alternate: 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days
Best Screenplay: Diablo Cody (Juno)
Alternate: Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Alternate: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James)
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Alternate: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Best Cinematographer: Janusz Kaminski (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Alternate: Rodrigo Prieto (Lust, Caution) Though I have a feeling Control could surprise...
Best Non-Fiction Film: No End in Sight
Alternate: Sicko
Best Animated Picture: Ratatouille
Alternate: Persepolis

Sarris was one of the few people that didn't like No Country, too. Too bad his reasoning was asinine.

Also, why is AO Scott not there? He is probably the best critic in the whole city.

NY Times is too powerful that they don't want to be (or be perceived to be) influenced by it? Or could be more of a personal grunge within the circle against Scott.

What was it?

http://www.observer.com/2007/just-shoot ... -coen-bros

He manages to say nothing significant about the movie. All he has to say is pretty much "it's too nihilistic."

That's a shame, too, cause Sarris is one of the real heavy hitters in the critical community.

He counts that as a bad thing

Best Picture: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt #1: There Will Be Blood
Alt #2: No Country for Old Men

The three big dominators so far in this short season. Diving Bell has yet to win one despite coming close twice, so I think it'll finally have its day.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Alt #1: Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
Alt #2: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Day-Lewis is a safe bet, but if Mortensen is gonna win anywhere, he's gonna win here. This is the same body that awarded Bello and Hurt for AHOV two years ago, so they like Cronenberg.

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Alt #1: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Alt #2: Laura Linney, The Savages

It's pretty much Cotillard vs. Christie with the critics.

Best Director: Julian Schnabel, Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt #1: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Alt #2: Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Lumet is just a random alternate, really, I think it's down to the Top Two here.

Best Foreign Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt #1: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
Alt #2: Persepolis

Dunno what happens here is Diving Bell wins Picture, but I'll keep it here anyway.

Best Screenplay: There Will Be Blood
Alt #1: Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt #2: No Country for Old Men

PTA gets his bone.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Alt #1: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Alt #2: Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd

They're usually good at thinking outside the box here (William Hurt in '05, Eugene Levy in '03), so I doubt this will come true, but just in case...

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Alt #1: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Alt #2: Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Ryan is a two-time Tony-nominated veteran of the stage, I'd be surprised if her gravy train ended here.

Best Cinematography: No Country for Old Men
Alt #1: Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt #2: There Will Be Blood

Deakins has yet to win anything, so maybe he'll finally get his due?

Best Animated Film: Persepolis
Alt #1: Ratatouille
Alt #2: Is it even worth it?

This two-way critics race is actually quite interesting, even though Ratatouille has the Oscar locked up.

i'm hoping the amy ryan momentum continues. she gives the best performance of the year.

My slightly revised last-second predictions:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Best Actress: Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Best Director: Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Best Foreign Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Best Cinematographer: Robert Elswit (There Will Be Blood)
Best Non-Fiction Film: No End in Sight
Best Animated Picture: Ratatouille

Amy Ryan, once again. I smell a backlash. And to say the truth I was hoping for some really "unpredictable" choice (by others), like Jennifer Jason Leigh... meh

Christie for Actress.

Bardem for Actor...I think that might be a typo?

I knew there would be some critic circles deeming Bardem as lead.

Best Actor Javier Bardem No Country for Old Men
Best Actress Julie Christie Away from Her

They put Bardem as a lead. And another win for Christie... predictable choices.

It's funny that the two categories we thought were going to see critic sweeps, Actor and Supporting Actor, are having the biggest variety, while the supporting actress, one we didn't expect anyone to dominate, is getting swept by Ryan. The actress is a two-female race at this point.

I think the critics know the Academy will never award Persepolis over Ratatouille, so they might as well award it what they can. They appear to love both equally.

I'm also quite happy for all the First Film awards Polley is winning. She really is a director to look out for, if the maturity of Away from Her is an indication.

And has there ever been a film with release dates more confusing than The Lives of Others?

ETA: VERY interesting placement for Bardem, assuming that's not a typo. Can't say I disagree though, as the Top three billed can swing either way. The critics awards continue to be Cotillard vs. Christie. Interesting stuff.

Um....we didn't expect Blanchett to dominate?

I don't think so. In term of degree of dominations, most of us expected it to go Bardem > Lewis > Christie >> Blanchett.

These are some rather ho hum winners.

Hopefully the runner-ups will provide some surprises...

Either this is a whole lotta build-up to nothing with an interesting backstory, or there' gonna be an out-of-left-field win. Latter, please?

ONCE!

Twas, the former, damn.

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men

And now we wait for the hopefully far-more-interesting runner-up lists.