I'm assuming you are referring to winning the GG when you talk about the race between it and Sweeney Todd? I don't know if it has quite enough hype/support for that, although a nod looks good. When does the DVD come out? That could help it a lot.

Song and a few technicals seem good atthe Oscars, although I don't know about much more.

It's a lock for a Razzie...

Go watch The Last Legion again or something, Brad.

I think it depends on how Fox is positioning its DVD release. The movie has been out now for nearly four months (An eternity nowadays in showbiz), and yet there hasn't been a whisper of a DVD release. If their planning a City of God-style DVD release (Far enough away to keep the momentum in theaters), I could honestly see it making the amount of money needed to get nominated for Best Picture, and I mean that. Until I get a deeper idea of what's going on there though it'll stay merely in my Top 10 for the Best Picture race. However, I could also easily see it pulling an Office at the Golden Globes by being the small import that could and trump the flashier competition for the win.

I gotta say, Fox Searchlight has really got their race stacked this year: In Picture they have Once, The Savages and now Juno, in Actress they have Laura Linney, Ellen Page and Keri Russell, and in O. Screenplay they could go 4/5 with Juno, Once, The Savages AND Waitress.

I know I didn't have confidence in LMS either but I'm not feeling it for Once. 50 mil+ road trip comedy with Arkin/Kinear/Carrell/Collette kind of > 10 mil grossing irish musical with no notable actors.

The Savages and Juno will probably be better bets for FS too

I wish Box was around more frequently so he could share with us the best PTAs for films in their 17th week. I mean, it takes a LOT for a film to maintain that kind of longevity. For comparison, Spider-Man 3 this year couldn't even make it to week 17.

Super best case scenario, a few of the upcoming films dissapoints and it sneaks in a best actor/actress nom.

Nah, even with a BP nom I think those categories just too stacked as their are for two complete unknowns to crack in.

Lone director nom, perhaps?

Well the director did write the excellent Bachelors Walk and has already been lauded in Irish circles for a while. No cache Stateside bar this thou.

I WILL admit one thing going for Once here is that it never really reached an actual release peak like LMS did on Labor Day, hence the lower PTA. It's a tough thing to judge and compare after oh, week ten or so, as films can go so many ways by then. It's one thing that could play to its advantage come Oscar season, as it should easily book a bunch of theaters since it never really went past the metropolitan areas (As sad as that is). If there's no DVD by Oscar season it could be at only say, $12 million after seven months and easily double that in just a couple more months.

It's a film that despite being small is great to watch with an audience as it's just the kind of film that you want to share, to turn to the person you don't next to you and say, "That was a GREAT MOVIE!" Though if they go with a DVD release it's just small enough that it might play better on a TV screen than say, The Golden Age (Speaking of DVDs, Searchlight is already sending screeners out, so they're obviously enthusiastic about this year). Certainly a film that'll be interesting to watch this awards season.

Sorry, I wasn't around to respond earlier - - I was busy seeing a first-run screening of the megawesome Brothers Solomon.

When outright genius is playing at my local multiplex, I got no time to talk about carp like Once...

(...and I do mean carp.)

When checking BFCA for the latest scores, I was reminded that Once got a 91 from them, and considering the three other 91+ films are an action film, a documentary, and an animated feature, Once should have a spot in their year-end top 10 list reserved.

It is heading towards a $10+ million box-office, maybe reaching even $12 million with awards buzz. It looks like a BP Comedy/Musical nom at the Globes is possible, but as far as the Oscars go, a screenplay nom is the best thing I could se happening.

BP (Musical/Comedy) is going to be a tight race at the Globes this year. Hairspray is a virtual lock for a nom, as is Sweeney Todd. Juno seems more and more likely, Enchanted could surprise, Once could get in, Waitress has a shot. Even something incredibly random such as August Rush could make it with decent-enough reviews. It's interesting though that for once the majority of the frontrunners are actually musicals

DVD release is set for December 18, and it's on track to finish probably around $10 million, give or take $100,000-200,000. I don't think this'll be enough to get a Best Picture nomination, but I'm beginning to consider a Lone Director nom, paired with noms for O. Screenplay and Song (Two noms I'm pretty certain about at the moment).

Now let's hope for some major gains in the Cult of Once come December.

Uh, Knocked Up? Superbad?

The Savages!!

I think this is a good time for me to once again remind everyone what a great year this has been for comedies.

Like Away from Her, it would have a chance if it had just been a bigger box office hit.

I do think it'll get a GG nomination, though.

Okay, I've seen it now. And although it is a nice, wonderful movie, I just can't see it as a contender. I think it's the kind of movie that, like Waitress, could have a hot at best screenplay, but not much more.
BTW: Are the songs eligible for Oscar? If yes, then it will probably win that one.

Two songs are being campaigned (I assume they're the ones deemed eligible for now) - Falling Slowly and If You Want Me...

What? The others aren't eligible???

I'm not sure. They're only focusing the campaign on those two songs. We'll know for sure when the Academy releases the eligible songs in two to three weeks.

Lies is at least as good as Falling Slowly and way better than the other campaigned song. It should be thrown in there too.

I'm not counting it out only because of loyal's call last year with LMS

It'll show up on a lot of critic lists and awards too, I think

well, it beat NCFOM %-wise with a 98% over its 95%, but No Country has an 8.6 avg rating, vs Once's 8.3

if Sweeney Todd gets very good reviews [85%+] and does well at the box office, it'll have a MUCH better chance than Once. I'm not even sure if Once'll get a Globe nom, whereas Todd's basically a lock since they always nominate musicals that have hype and come out after the Globe noms are announced.

Does Once have a dvd release date yet?

I read it was December 18, but to my knowledge, there's been nothing about it at DVD Active.