Well, it's less than a month until the announcement of the noms...so let's give it a go!


Here are my very very very preliminary predictions:


Best Picture (Drama)

Charlie Wilson's War
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement


Best Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Hairspray
Once
Knocked Up
Sweeney Todd
Juno


Best Director

Ridley Scott (American Gangster)
David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises)
Jason Reithman (Juno)
Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
P.T. Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Joe Wright (Atonement)


Best Actor (Drama)

George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Emilie Hirsh (Into the Wild)


Best Actress (Drama)

Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Jodie Foster (The Brave One)
Uma Thurman (In Bloom)


Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Seth Rogen (Knocked Up)
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
Sam Riley (Control)
Jack Nicholson (The Bucket List) - if this is a comedy, if not Steve Carell (Dan in Real Life)


Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

Amy Adams (Enchanted)
Keri Russell (Waitress)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)


Best Supporting Actor

John Travolta (Hairspray)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Andy Griffith (Waitress)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Hol Holbrook (Into the Wild)


Best Supporting Actress

Michelle Pfeiffer (Hairspray)
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Saoirse Roran (Atonement)
Romola Garai (Atonement)
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)


Best Screenplay

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Juno
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men
Atonement


_________________________________________________________________


That's it for now, more later.

I'm pretty positive that Keira Knightley is supporting actress, as I've heard she's in the film for only about a half hour.

nah, it's a bit more. it just depends on how they will market het in the FYC ads whether she'll be supporting or lead.

I think Lecter's list is pretty good, though I'm certain McAvoy will get a best actor nod

I think he has a good chance at the Oscars, but not the Globes... Just a feeling.

I see Knightley being campaigned as the lead and the three actresses playing Brionny (Ronan, Garai, Redgrave) campaigned in supporting for Atonement.

Best Drama
Gone Baby Gone
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild (they always have some surprise nominee, and this seems like a film they'd really like)

Best Comedy/Musical
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd
The Savages
Juno
Knocked Up

Best Director
Coens - No Country for Old Men
P.T. Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joe Wright - Atonement
Ben Affleck - Gone Baby Gone
Sean Penn - Into the Wild

Best Actor in a Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
Casey Affleck - Gone Baby Gone
James McAvoy - Atonement
Denzel Washington - American Gangster

Best Actress in a Drama
Keira Knightley - Atonement
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Jodie Foster - The Brave One
Uma Thurman - In Bloom

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd (they nominated him for CATCF, if this is as good as we've heard, he'll win)
John Travolta - Hairspray (I think they'll push him here, even if at the Oscars he'll go supporting)
Seth Rogan - Knocked Up
Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical (this category is stronger than the Actress in a Drama one)
Amy Adams - Enchanted
Ellen Page - Juno
Laura Linney - The Savages
Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd
Keri Russell - Waitress

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Russell Crowe - 3:10 to Yuma
Alan Rickman - Sweeney Todd

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Saoirse Roran - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Best Screenplay
Juno
Michael Clayton
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men

Current predictions (Made a few days earlier at AD):

Best Picture (Drama)
1. Atonement
2. There Will Be Blood
3. No Country for Old Men
4. Charlie Wilson's War
5. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Alt. Into the Wild

Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
1. Hairspray
2. Juno
3. Once
4. Sweeney Todd
5. Knocked Up
Alt. Enchanted

Best Director
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
2. Joe Wright, Atonement
3. Joel Coen/Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
4. Ridley Scott, American Gangster
5. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Alt. Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd

Best Actor (Drama)
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
3. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
4. James McAvoy, Atonement
5. George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
1. Johnny Depp, Sweeny Todd
2. John Travolta, Hairspray
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
4. Jack Nicholson, The Bucket List
5. Steve Carell, Dan in Real Life
Alt. Seth Rogen, Knocked Up

Best Actress (Drama)
1. Kiera Knightley, Atonement
2. Julie Christie, Away from Her
3. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
4. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Alt. Halle Berry, Things We Lost in the Fire

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)
1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2. Ellen Page, Juno
3. Amy Adams, Enchanted
4. Laura Linney, The Savages
5. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Alt. Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray

Best Supporting Actor
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
3. Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
4. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
5. Philip Bosco, The Savages
Alt. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Supporting Actress
1. Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
2. Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
3. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
4. Romala Garai, Atonement
5. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Alt. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Best Screenplay
1. Juno
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Atonement
4. No Country for Old Men
5. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Alt. Once

Best Animated Film
1. Ratatouille
2. Persopolis
3. The Simpsons Movie
Alt. Beowulf

Best Original Score
1. Atonement
2. The Golden Compass
3. Ratatouille
4. Enchanted
5. Michael Clayton
Alt. Beowulf

Best Original Song
1. "That's How You Know," Enchanted
2. "Falling Slowly," Once
3. "Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)," Hairspray
4. "Guaranteed," Into the Wild
5. Sweeney Todd
Alt. "Ladies' Choice," Hairspray

you don't think Atonement, seemingly the frontrunner for a BP win right now, won't even pick up a nomination here?

Do you consider Charlie Wilson's War as drama? By the looks I think it would qualify better as a satiric comedy.

I could see Emily Mortimer getting a supporting actress nod for Lars and the Real Girl. She would deserve it.

basically everywhere online, it's been deemed the frontrunner, if there is one at the moment. and its RT is great. so is its IMDB. The reason it's ahead of films like NCFOM, TWBB, and Juno is because it's a romantic war epic. I mean, it is a film the Academy loves already without even having seen it. Its competition will have to gain considerably more support than it to beat it out for BP at the moment.

The reason it isn't mentioned more on other sites is because it hasn't started in the US, and most people tend to ignore those movies til they started here - no matter how good the reception in the US. But check every Oscar chart in sight and it is on top of it. It's a mortal lock for BP nomination at both Oscar and Globes. However, and I'm saying this as someone who really loves it and wants it to succeed, I don't think Atonement win at the Oscars.

is it because of how the film itself is?

Because honestly, I don't think any of the other films with a serious chance at this point [No Country, There'll Be Blood, Juno] are at all as oh-of-course-the-Academy-will-love-this as Atonement seems. However, I've only seen one out of these four films, so who knows. I think the film whose judgment we are most awaiting now is There Will Be Blood. We know from the early reviews that it'll be great. But the question is whether it'll be REALLY GOOD [aka 85-93% RT or so] or AMAZINGLY GOOD [93-100% RT]. I think if it falls into that upper section, Atonement could be in some serious trouble for Best Picture. But at this point, I don't think No Country could win, and Juno - as good as it looks - is probably too hip/quirky to pull out a win. Which leaves Atonement as a very strong frontrunner at the moment.

But considering at this point in time in '05 Munich was a clear frontrunner for Best Picture, and even though I felt it was the best film of the decade I can acknowledge it barely pulled off a BP nomination, we really know NOTHING about how this year's Oscars will turn out.

I'm trying to figure out how Charlie Wilson's War is the overlooked contender this year. People aren't talking about it at all.

It's sooooo backwards.

wait a tick. I'm Not There could get nominated for Best Comedy/Musical. If Walk the Line was nominated there, I'm sure this'll get pushed there as well. May not get nominated, but it at least has a chance in this category.

Variety printed a list of HFPA members. Now I know why the Globes suck. Most of the members of germany at least aren't movie critics, they're members of the yellow press who are more (in)famous for gossip about actors and actresses than for their knowledge of movies

Who are the representatives of Germany?

Elmar Biebl (the only film critic among them)
Anke Hofmann (correspondent for TV Digital, doing only interviews)
Frances Schoenberger (ELLE, doing only interviews)
Helen Hoehne (correspondent for TV Movie, doing oly interviews)
Scott Orlin (correspondent for TV Spielfilm, doing mostly interviews)

Musical/Comedy is a reallll bitch this year. I'm having a hard time seeing Enchanted miss a nom, but I have no idea what to knock out. Knocked Up or Once, I hope not. And The Savages is in there too.

Little announcement: Golden Globes ceremony is back on a Sunday (Jan. 13). They probably figured that 24 won't be starting anytime soon.

You must be really happy about the inclusion of Scott Orlin

I'd bet any money on Once. The Globes tend to be more mainstream, and I'm still not convinced that Once is getting anything. I could easily see this line-up:

Enchanted
Hairspray
Juno
Knocked Up
Sweeney Todd

All are already crowd-pleasers or seem assured to be, with the possible exception of Todd. If it ends up sucking, then Once could get in in place of it.

Don't forget The Savages which is getting quite excellent reviews now as well.

Yes, but this year is a really strong year for musicals + comedies, Once included. The fact that we can come up with at least seven potential nominees for the category speaks volumes about that. I really think that they should split up the category, as comedies are frequently getting shafted in favour of dramatic musicals like Ray and Walk the Line. For instance, this year my favourite two comedies have been Hot Fuzz and Superbad, neither of which have a shot in the Musical/Comedy category but both of which would have a chance in a Comedy-only category.

I'm not saying Once won't get in, but I could easily see it not getting in. I've not seen it, so I don't care one way or another.