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No Guts No Glory Predictions
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Author:  Raffiki [ Sat Nov 10, 2007 7:05 pm ]
Post subject:  No Guts No Glory Predictions
Let's hear 'em.

I think it will be interesting to see how our predictions will change throughout the season... so if you are going to update your predix just make a new post, don't edit.

Here are mine for the big ones. I'll have to do a little more research for the rest.
(RU = Runner Up)

Best Picture: Atonement (RU: Charlie Wilson's War)

Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen (RU: Mike Nichols)

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (RU: Johnny Depp)

Best Actress: Keira Knightley (RU: Julie Christie)
---> This is the weirdest race. There is no front-runner and I can't see any of them winning. I don't think Knightley will win then again, I don't think Christie or Cotillard or Jolie will win either but Knightley is more mainstream and if Atonement takes Pic, it will help her.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (RU: Tom Wilkinson)

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchet (RU: Amy Ryan or someone from Atonement even though I think they will split the vote)

Has there ever been a time when the same character was nominated twice in the same category for being played by two different actresses??? I know Winslet and Stuart did it for Titanic but in different categories.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
There Will Be Blood wins best picture, No Country win best director.

Charlie Wilson's War - Best Picture nom, no Best Director. Splits with David Croenenberg or Tim Burton.

Ellen Page gets a nomination for Juno in Best Actress. Amy Adams does not. Julie Christie wins the award.

Keira runs in Best Supporting Actress and wins. Best Supporting Actor goes to Javier Bardem who wins just about every precursor award and runs away with it.

Travolta gets a nomination. Hairspray wins the Best Musical/Comedy globe then misses a BP nom.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
A movie like There Will Be Blood will NOT split. Simply won't, IMO.
Author:  roo [ Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Raffiki wrote:
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen (RU: Mike Nichols)

What is the status of their eligibility for this award?
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
andaroo wrote:
Raffiki wrote:
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen (RU: Mike Nichols)

What is the status of their eligibility for this award?


They're eligible. The "No duel directors!" rumor was started by the Sin City controversy, but duel directors ARE eligible, and have even won before (Robbins/Wise for West Side Story in 1961). The award is really "Best Direction," but the lack of duel directors and standing of the "Auteur Theory" makes the term very-rarely used.
Author:  roo [ Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Thanks for the clarification :)
Author:  billybobwashere [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Atonement, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, and Juno will all be nominated, meaning I think there is only one up-for-grabs spot left.

Best Picture and Best Director will be split this year. Too much strong competition for one film to take both categories.

here are my major predicts, ordered from winner to least-likely of the nominees [according to my predictions]:

BP - Atonement, There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Juno, American Gangster

BD - Coens, No Country for Old Men -- Joe Wright, Atonement -- PT Anderson, There Will Be Blood -- Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone -- Jason Reitman, Juno

Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood -- James McAvoy, Atonement -- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd -- Casey Affleck, Gone Baby Gone -- Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Actress - Ellen Page, Juno -- Julie Christie, Away From Her -- Keira Knightley, Atonement -- Amy Adams, Enchanted -- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart

Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men -- Russell Crowe, 3:10 to Yuma -- Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood -- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton -- Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd

Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There -- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement -- Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd -- Wang Tei, Lust Caution -- Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

Original Screenplay - Juno -- Before the Devil Knows You're Dead -- Michael Clayton -- The Assassination of Jesse James -- Ratatouille

Adapted Screenplay - No Country for Old Men -- Atonement -- There Will Be Blood -- Gone Baby Gone -- American Gangster
Author:  xiayun [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
I don't know if Atonement could win BP without winning another category among the big 8. When was the last time that happened? Chicago at least had supporting actress.

That's my reservation on Atonement winning, in addition to the concern that its box office won't break $40m. It looks best set to grab the most nominations, but outside the techs, it has stronger competition in every major category. To win best picture, I think it needs to have either Keira Knightley or adapted screenplay go along with it.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:15 pm ]
Post subject: 
My two winning possibilities predictions:


Best Picture: Charlie Wilson's War OR There Will Be Blood

Best Director: Mike Nichols OR P.T. Anderson

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis OR Tom Hanks (but, really, I'm thinking only Day-Lewis

Best Actress: Ellen Page OR Keira Knightley

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem OR Tom Wilkinson

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett OR Someone from Atonement

Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men OR There Will Be Blood(that's a tough one!)

Best Original Screenplay: Juno OR Ratatouille
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
xiayun wrote:
I don't know if Atonement could win BP without winning another category among the big 8. When was the last time that happened? Chicago at least had supporting actress.

That's my reservation on Atonement winning, in addition to the concern that its box office won't break $40m. It looks best set to grab the most nominations, but outside the techs, it has stronger competition in every major category. To win best picture, I think it needs to have either Keira Knightley or adapted screenplay go along with it.


I don't think Atonement will win, but regarding your concerns, I think there's a really good chance that Keira Knightley will win the award. Christie and Page are the only ones who can spoil it for her and I see her getting more support.

It's almost certainly not winning Adapted Screenplay, though. Not against the behemoths like There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men.
Author:  xiayun [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
But from the reviews, Knightley isn't the most standout performance of the film, and her part is more supporting. It's much easier for a lead performance to win in supporting, like Jennifer Connery in ABM, but reverse becomes a lot harder.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
xiayun wrote:
But from the reviews, Knightley isn't the most standout performance of the film, and her part is more supporting. It's much easier for a lead performance to win in supporting, like Jennifer Connery in ABM, but reverse becomes a lot harder.


Yeah, but I thinm the year is simply very weak in the Best Actress department considering most contenders come from small, summer-released movies. The only real awards season competition is Ellen Page and maaayyybe Laura Linney.
Author:  trixster [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Picture - There Will Be Blood
Director - P.T. Anderson
Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress - Julie Christie
S. Actor - Javier Bardem
S. Actress - Keira Knightley
O. Screenplay - Ratatouille
A. Screenplay - There Will Be Blood
Author:  Shack [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
xiayun wrote:
But from the reviews, Knightley isn't the most standout performance of the film, and her part is more supporting. It's much easier for a lead performance to win in supporting, like Jennifer Connery in ABM, but reverse becomes a lot harder.


The thing that bugs me is that Christie's performance is also totalllyyyy supporting. Because she stands out she'll be considered lead, but it isn't even close between her and Pinsent. It's much worse than Reese in Walk the Line. The academy really needs to step up the eligibility rules.
Author:  Raffiki [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
xiayun wrote:
I don't know if Atonement could win BP without winning another category among the big 8. When was the last time that happened? Chicago at least had supporting actress.

That's my reservation on Atonement winning, in addition to the concern that its box office won't break $40m. It looks best set to grab the most nominations, but outside the techs, it has stronger competition in every major category. To win best picture, I think it needs to have either Keira Knightley or adapted screenplay go along with it.


Aside from American Gangster and Charlie Wilson's War, I doubt any of the other contenders are going to break $40m either, at least not until after nominations.
Author:  Raffiki [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
If only Laura Linney had been in a stronger vehicle this year, the prize would have been hers.

I think both the Supporting Actress and Lead Actress race could get very interesting if Christie goes Supporting.

Was Angelina's performance good enough to win (if the competition falls flat around her)??
Author:  Rod [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
What would they base eligibility rules on? Screen time? Importance of character? Who judges whether it's supporting of lead? You'd still end up with a lot of questionable category placements.

Just because a character has less screen time than another it does not make them supporting. Christie is lead :P I can't say about Knightley since I haven't seen the film, but if she can be considered supporting and/or somehow ends up in the supporting category anyway...it becomes iffy. She's more of a star than her co-stars but both Ronan and Redgrave are getting a lot more attention for their performances than Knightley. So the only way I could see Knightley winning is if they go for star power/screen time over the actual performance.

My Predictions:
Best Picture: Atonement. Alternate: No Country for Old Men.
Best Director (the hardest for me): Joe Wright. Alternate. Joel/Ethan Coen.
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose). Alternate: Julie Christie (Away from Her).
Best Actor (ok maybe THIS is the harders category as I can see Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, Mortensen, and McAvoy (if Atonement really ends up sweeping) all potentially winning. Yet other than Day-Lewis all the others aren't even locks for nominations).
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Alternate: Viggo Mortensen
Best Supporting Actress:
Winner- Vanessa Redgrave (no guts, no glory, right?)
Alternate: Cate Blanchett
Best Supprting Actor:
Winner: Javier Bardem (I agree with most here. Likely to sweep pre-cursor awards. Kinda overdue).
Alternate: Hal Holbrook
Original Screenplay
Winner: Juno
Alternate: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: Atonement
Author:  Rod [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Raffiki wrote:
If only Laura Linney had been in a stronger vehicle this year, the prize would have been hers.

I think both the Supporting Actress and Lead Actress race could get very interesting if Christie goes Supporting.

Was Angelina's performance good enough to win (if the competition falls flat around her)??


It's as good as other previous winning performances, but not this year's best.

As I've said before if La Vie en Rose was an English film/box office hit Marion Cotillard would be a lock for the award.
Author:  Raffiki [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 6:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Rod wrote:
Raffiki wrote:
If only Laura Linney had been in a stronger vehicle this year, the prize would have been hers.

I think both the Supporting Actress and Lead Actress race could get very interesting if Christie goes Supporting.

Was Angelina's performance good enough to win (if the competition falls flat around her)??


It's as good as other previous winning performances, but not this year's best.

As I've said before if La Vie en Rose was an English film/box office hit Marion Cotillard would be a lock for the award.


I know she was neither my predicted winner nor alternate but I think Cotillard is in the running to win. The competition is pretty damn weak even if the performances weren't. It was so hard choosing for that category because I feel like I could interchangeably place Cotillard or Jolie in either the winning or alternate positions.

I have yet to see the film (I think it comes out this week on DVD) but I think if the race fails to have a mainstream favorite (in Keira, Linney, or Ellen) and falls back to Christie/Jolie/Cotillard, Cotillard can take it. I also think she'll win more critics awards than any of the other actresses.

I still can't bring myself to see Christie winning though. I could be in denial ;) but I don't see myself snapping out of it anytime soon. :P
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Rod wrote:
What would they base eligibility rules on? Screen time? Importance of character? Who judges whether it's supporting of lead? You'd still end up with a lot of questionable category placements.



Definitely, but I think we all agree that placing someone like Jamie Foxx as supporting for Collateral is simply moronic and somewhat strikter and more clear rules could have prevented that.
Author:  billybobwashere [ Mon Nov 12, 2007 2:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Laura Linney was terrific in "The Savages," and easily deserves a nomination.

but I think both Philip Seymour Hoffman and Philip Brosco were better [aka they both deserve at least nominations, too] so I think her winning over them would be sorta unfair.

then again, Abigail Breslin got nominated for "Little Miss Sunshine," and she gave the film's weakest performance. So who knows. I think Ellen Page will win Best Actress, personally.
Author:  Chippy [ Mon Nov 12, 2007 2:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Adam Sandler will be nominated for Best Actor.

Ratatouille will be nominated for Best Picture.
Author:  Raffiki [ Tue Dec 25, 2007 8:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Best Picture Nominations

Atonement
Juno
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

What an unlikely bunch, but I just wanted to think out loud I guess. And I still have this feeling that CWW will get noimnated.
Author:  android [ Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
Atonement wins BP, Adapted Screenplay (yes, call me insane) and a few techies despite not showing up at SAGs at all.

No Country For Old Men wins Director and some other award (maybe Editing).
Author:  Raffiki [ Tue Dec 25, 2007 4:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: No Guts No Glory Predictions
I think No Country is going to win it. It's not that it has pulled ahead or gained momentum. It's just that every other film in the race has lost momentum or never materialized into a bona fide winning contender. Atonement can pull an upset but I don't see much passion behind it.

I think Blood is the only film left to truly enter the ring, so we'll see how it plays out.
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