My analysis for the possible nominees:
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio - With The Aviator getting tons of critical paraise, doing well at the box-office and practically being the first shoe-in nom at this year's Oscars, DiCaprio's nomination is as much of a lock as Bill Murray's last year. He probably won't win, but a nom is assured.
Johnny Depp - He won the SAG award last year for Pirates of the Caribbean, the only major awad he won for that role as far as I know. That obviously shows that the SAG members love him quite a bit. With Finding Neverland having been nominated for DGA as well as PGA, Johnny Depp's nomination here is not a lock, but very close to it. He won't win twice in a row, though as his performance in Finding Neverland seems by far not as extraordinary as in Pirates of the Caribbean.
Paul Giamatti - Sideways is receiving more praise than all other films released this year and SAG has shown last year by nominating Patricia Clarkson and Peter Dinklage for The Station Agent that it is not afraid of nominatng actors from small and quirky films. Paul Giamatti missed out on American Splendor, but this year might make up for that.
Jamie Foxx - His is this year what Sean Penn was last year. Two great performances and a lock for a Best Actor nom at the oscars as well as here.
Liam Neeson - He started out as a certain nominee, but has been losing monumentum since. He has won some awards by crticis, yet missed out on a nomination at the Broadcast Film Critics Association which already hurt his chances quite a bit. SAG seems as his last chance to boost his oscar hopes.
Javier Bardem - Another actor who has been considered a definite nominee in the beginning, but immensly lost monumentum later on. The movie is doing horribly at the box-office and while Bardem received tons of nominations so far for his oscar-bait performance, there were no major wins to boot. As I said, SAG has nominated actors from small films last year, but The Sea Inside might be too small in the end.
Don Cheadle - While he is not a lock for a nomination he has been continuosly gaining steam for Hotel Rwanda just like the movie itself has which is doing very well with the critics. Cheadle's performance is well-liked all-round and he has been a very underestimated actor for many years. This year will most likely honor him for his work. I doubt his win, but I think he'll probably replace Giamatti on the nominations list.
Clint Eastwood - For all his years in the business, he has yet to win a Best Actor trophy at the oscars. Surprisingly, though, despite all the praise for Million Dollary Baby, out of all the prominent members of the cast, he is getting the least praise being overshadowed by Freeman and Swank. Considering that and the rather competitive Best Actor category this year, I would say that his chances are rather slim.
Best Actress:
Annette Benning - She hasn't been winning many award recently or having been mentioned by many critics, but her nomination seems like a shoe-in. The movie itself, Being Julia, didn't get much attention, neither can it claim a good box-office run. However, all critics are praising Bennings performance in it and let's not forget that she won the National Board of Review. She might not win here, actually most likely she won't, but a nom is almost assured.
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby is getting praises left and right and most reviews claim that Swank overshadows Eastwood and Freeman in the movie. At this point, she is pretty much a lock for a nomination here and a good contender for the win.
Imelda Staunton - Last year Evan Rachel Wood and Patricia Clarkson, both starring in rather small feature have been nominated in this category. I don't see why Staunton should miss out. Considering the praises for her performance, I also think that she'll give Swank a run for her money...
Uma Thurman - Her performance in Kill Bill Vol. 2 was great. but so was her performance in the first Volume as well and she didn't get nominated for that one. I don't see why the trend should change this time around. Even though the category is rather weak, I see the SAG nominating actresses from small pictures rather than giving Thurman a nod.
Julie Delpy - Before Sunset is one of the five most praised films of the year and as far as performances go, Delpy is the one standing out in Before Sunset. Despite the films early release and umpimressive box-office, she has still received many nominations for her performance so far and lots of critics praise. Since I see Before Sunset becoming this year's Thirteen, I easily see Delpy being nominated here like Evan Rachel Wood was last year.
Kate Winslet - She has a pretty good shot considering her praised performance in Eternal Sunshine and the fact that the film was actually more successful than of most other possible nominees. I definitely wouldn't count her out.
Catalina Sandino Moreno - She has a good chance, but I think only one actress from a rather small feature will be nominated this year and that will be Delpy rather than Moreno. She has an outside shot at replacing Winslet, though.
|
