We have a thread for each of the other 6 big categories, and the only ones missing are these two. It looks like the screenplay categories have taken some good shape a couple of months before the year is over, especially on the original front.

Original Screenplay

Top Tier (Locks):
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. The Queen

Second Tier (Likely):
3. Volver
4. Babel

Third Tier:
Stranger than Fiction
United 93
Venus
The Good Shepherd
Bobby
The Pursuit of Happyness
...

The top 4 look very very solid at this point, with the last spot wide open. It has been Little Miss Sunshine's to lose, but if The Queen can take its momentum through nomination, get support from critics, and turn out to be the only BP nominee in the category, it can pull an upset.

Adapted Screenplay

Top Tier (Locks):
1. The Departed
2. Little Children

Third Tier:
3. Dreamgirls
4. Flags of Our Fathers
5. The Good German
6. Notes on a Scandal
7. Thank You for Smoking
8. Children of Men
...

I skipped the second tier here because I could see a bunch of films filling in the other 3 spots and wouldn't be surprised if any one missed. And to me, The Departed is pulling away from Little Children and is the clear frontrunner at this point.

Half Nelson is looking good for a possible screenplay nom.

I think Flags is basically a lock, this is Haggis after all.

Pretty much a fitting list, but I'd put Volver under lock.