Well, as you know often the five Best Picture nominees don't match the five Best Director nominees. Last year, for instance, Finding Neverland's director didn't get a nomination, while Mike Leigh got one for Vera Drake while the movie itself wasn't nominated. In over twenty years already it didn't happen that the Best Picture nominees matched the Best Director nominees 5-to-5. I don't see it happening this year either.


There is a second split, I expect, though. In the past two years, the Best Director and Best Picture winners have matched. In 2002 and 2000 there were splits, though with Polanski/Chicago winning in 2002 and Soderbergh/Gladiator winning in 2000. I think this kind of a split will happen this year again.


This is what I see for the Best Picture/Best Director nominations split....


I think about who is actually vulnerable and the only one who comes to my mind is really James Mangold for Walk the Line, unless Crash gets a Best Picture nom over WTL somehow, then Paul Haggis is the vulnerable one.

I don't see Spielberg being shut out, especially considering how person this project is (and that it is Spielberg we are dealing with).

Ang Lee is a lock, I don't need to elaborate on that.

George Clooney should get a nom for Good Night, and Good Luck. Academy loves actors-turned-directors.

If King Kong gets a Best Picture nom, Jackson will be nominated as well as his passion for the project is no less than for LOTR and it is his passion that brought the movie to life.

Since Walk the Line, GNGL, Munich, Brokeback Mountain and King Kong are the movies I predict to get Best Picture noms, I think that Walk the Line is the most likely of them to have its director shut out. Unless Crash gets a nom, of course...

Who will replace him?

I am thinking Woodyx Allen. He's a king of those who get Director noms without Best Picture noms. He was nominated for Best Director for six times already, but only twice were his movies nominated for Best Picture.

There is also Malick, but pre-cursor awards are not looking good for him at all.

Mereilles could get in as well, but a of now I give Woody Allen the edge for Match Point.


What about the Best Director/Best Picture winning split?


I'll make it simple here. I see Ang Lee getting Best Director and Munich getting Best Picture. BM might get both, but I am pretty sure that Munich won't get both.


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Any thoughts on that?

In term of how vulnerable each film is to have its director snubbed when it's nominated, here is my ranking (from least to most):

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Munich
3. Good Night, and Good Luck.
4. King Kong
5. Walk the Line
6. Crash
7. Capote

The most likely directors to see their names there but no picture nom:

1. Woody Allen
2. David Cronenberg
3. Terrence Malick

Pretty mucn in line with my thoughts. I had said last month James Mangold wouldn't be nominated if there were to be a best pic director missing out a nod. And that got me in a fight with I don't remember who.

I don't know if Paul Haggis will miss out if Crash gets nominated. This was very personal to him to (okay not "very").
It's his directorial debut and he's been getting praised just as much as the movie!
I can see him missing out, though, since his screenplay nod is all locked up.

As for the winning split, the only one that makes the most sense would be...

Munich/Ang Lee

I can see Brokeback winning, Kong winning, and even GNAGL winning. But in all their cases, I think they'd take the director statue with them if they won. Except possibly Jackson, then it'd still go to Lee.

Okay, I'm starting to think that Brokeback Mountain will actually take both, Director and Picture.

Now for the noms, I am really confused. Could Capote's director be nominated?

Jackson taking out Mangold.

Allen/Mierelles/Cronenberg taking out Haggis. Or Speilberg taking out Haggis if Mierelles or Croenenberg get the BP nom over Munich.

The year is so crazy that I won't be shocked to see a 2/5 split. I will be surprised, but not shocked.

You mean only two matchups???

There will most definitely be at least three. I still wouldn't count out Munich, even if it doesn't get a director nom.

Yeah, I won't be shocked if Brokeback and GNAGL are the only two films with both BP and BD nods. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. We have a lot of highly respected directors that director branch could go for (Meirelles, Allen, Cronenberg, Spielberg, Jackson, even Wong Kar-Wai) while their pictures may not make it.