Don't quote me on this, guys, but the word over at OscarWatch is that Brokeback just won.

Picture: Brokeback Mountain (over A History of Violence)
Director: Ang Lee (over David Cronenberg)
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (over Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain)
Actress: Vera Farmiga, Down to the Bone (over Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, for four films (Capote, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Ballad of Jack and Rose, The Interpreter), over Amy Adams of Junebug
Supporting Actor: William Hurt, A History of Violence (over Frank Langella, Good Night, and Good Luck)
Screenplay: Dan Futterman, Capote (over Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale)
Cinematography: Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck (over 2046)
Production Design: 2046 (over Good Night, and Good Luck)
Music: Joe Hisaishi, Howl's Moving Castle
New Generation Award: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Documentary: Werner Herzog's Grizzly Man (over Alex Gibney's Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room)
Animated Feature: Wallce + Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Foreign Film: Michael Haneke's Cachet (over 2046).

Picture: Brokeback Mountain (over A History of Violence)
Director: Ang Lee (over David Cronenberg)
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (over Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain)
Actress: Vera Farmiga, Down to the Bone (over Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, for four films (Capote, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Ballad of Jack and Rose, The Interpreter), over Amy Adams of Junebug
Supporting Actor: William Hurt, A History of Violence (over Frank Langella, Good Night, and Good Luck)
Screenplay: Dan Futterman, Capote (over Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale)
Cinematography: Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck (over 2046)
Production Design: 2046 (over Good Night, and Good Luck)
Music: Joe Hisaishi, Howl's Moving Castle
New Generation Award: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Documentary: Werner Herzog's Grizzly Man (over Alex Gibney's Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room)
Animated Feature: Wallce + Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Foreign Film: Michael Haneke's Cachet (over 2046).

BBM obviously benefits the most. Good support for Capote. If Judi Dench can get a runner-up with L.A. critics, it means the performance has real meat instead of just being Oscar bait, so I think her chance at a nomination is still good.

They like 2046 a lot. And another good news for Amy Adams.

Any movie has a better chance at best picture than Memoirs does at the moment.

A History of Violence still basically has no shot, not when Focus has BBM to focus on and not when BBM will beat it at both box office and critic awards. Capote is indeed lurking around and among the short list of films that competes for the last couple of spots.

GNAGL and Match Point's best shot is with NYFCA given the subject matter for GNAGL and Woody Allen for Match Point.

It seems Munich is unlikely to win many critic groups.

Any movie has a better chance at best picture than Memoirs does at the moment.

A History of Violence still basically has no shot, not when Focus has BBM to focus on and not when BBM will beat it at both box office and critic awards. Capote is indeed lurking around and among the short list of films that competes for the last couple of spots.

GNAGL and Match Point's best shot is with NYFCA given the subject matter for GNAGL and Woody Allen for Match Point.

It seems Munich is unlikely to win many critic groups.

Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, for four films (Capote, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Ballad of Jack and Rose, The Interpreter), over Amy Adams of Junebug

Supporting Actor: William Hurt, A History of Violence (over Frank Langella, Good Night, and Good Luck)

Cinematography: Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck (over 2046)

Production Design: 2046 (over Good Night, and Good Luck)

Documentary: Werner Herzog's Grizzly Man (over Alex Gibney's Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room)

Wow. Very interesting choices.

I'd like to note on several things...

--While I agree Violence still has no shot whatsoever at any major awards, this at least brings William Hurt back up to consideration and David Cronberg as a slightly possible contender for the Director slot with no Pic nod.

--I was going to note earlier, but had forgotten: Ledger seems to be rivaling Joaquin in raves and might trump him in the coming months. Nothing at all for Walk the Line is not altogether surprising for me being of the weakest in most films that are in contention for big awards. time is a passin and Walk the Line is standing still. IT will be lucky if its existing buzz gets overshadowed (although that will make it easier to predict the top 5)

--I guess Judi Dench does have some early backing

--I always thought Amy Adams was among the top cintenders for Supporting Actress. Throughout the ENTIRE season and in almost any full-length Oscar preview or predictions Amy Adams was mentioned as being worthy but too small, too small, too small, too small, too small... all those montions, however, kept her name alive. IF she misses out now, it's because too many people already talked her up and killed her in the process.

--This was the big push Good Night, and Good Luck needed and it didn't quite get it. It definitely helps that it won 2 because that shows a good amount of support from the bottom up but I was hoping a win because it would solidify it's slot in the top 5 for the moment (with Geisha fading out of view)

--I still see Munich winning, even with the somewhat split reaction going around now. If by the time of its release, the divide has become thicker, then its chances will have (much to my joy) decreased quite alot making the race all the more interesting. So, if that happens, I think Brokeback may actually have a chance to win. I can't believe how far this film has already gone! If it wins NY and gets the NBR #1, I think that will be a hard act to challenge.