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| Author: | Goldie [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Best Picture Nomination Predictions - 2005 |
As the other Big Oscar categories have an individual thread - what are your Best Picture Nomination Predictions - 2005 ***************************************************** |
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| Author: | andaroo1 [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:37 pm ] |
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I'm so lost now with Memoirs. Ask me again next week 
01 Walk the Line 02 Brokeback Mountain 03 Munich 04 Good Night, and Good Luck. 05 Memoirs of a Geisha/King Kong/The New World If theoretically... Memoirs gets under 70% at RT and the reviews for Kong keep up I would switch to: 01 Walk the Line 02 Brokeback Mountain 03 Munich 04 Good Night, and Good Luck. 05 King Kong In this senario, I think it's possible that Kong grabs the BP nomination and Malick gets a Director nod. |
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| Author: | Anonymous [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:41 pm ] |
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Hmm... Good Night, and Good Luck King Kong Match Point Munich Walk The Line Match Point could be switched out for Memoirs. I'm not convinced at the chances for either Brokeback Mountain or The New World. |
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| Author: | Johnny Dollar [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:43 pm ] |
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Munich Walk The Line Brokeback Mountain Good Night, and Good Luck Memoirs of A Geisha I think those first three are pretty much locks. The last two, not so much. |
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| Author: | iluvjuanki [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:52 pm ] |
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01.The New World 02.Munich 03.Brokeback Mountain 04.Walk the Line 05.Memoirs of a Geisha/Crash/Good Night, and Good Luck |
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| Author: | Raffiki [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 4:09 pm ] |
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Munich Memoirs Walk the Line Good Night... Brokeback Mountain/The New World |
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| Author: | A. G. [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 4:16 pm ] |
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King Kong - token mass appeal movie Munich - token serious deep movie Walk the Line - token americana movie, also fills the liberal niche in a less obvious way than other contenders. Pride and Prejudice - token brit movie Geisha - token diversity Just how it looks to me at this time. |
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| Author: | Goldie [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:14 pm ] |
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Archie Gates wrote: King Kong - token mass appeal movie Munich - token serious deep movie Walk the Line - token americana movie, also fills the liberal niche in a less obvious way than other contenders. Pride and Prejudice - token brit movie Geisha - token diversity Just how it looks to me at this time. do token smaller films ever warrant a nom? Maybe replacing one of your categories > #5? Good Night, and Good Luck or Match Point |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:38 pm ] |
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Brokeback Mountain Walk the Line Munich Then it becomes a little foggy. I'm no longer sure of a Memoirs nomination. |
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| Author: | A. G. [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:38 pm ] |
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Goldie wrote: Archie Gates wrote: King Kong - token mass appeal movie Munich - token serious deep movie Walk the Line - token americana movie, also fills the liberal niche in a less obvious way than other contenders. Pride and Prejudice - token brit movie Geisha - token diversity Just how it looks to me at this time. do token smaller films ever warrant a nom? Maybe replacing one of your categories > #5? Good Night, and Good Luck or Match Point Heh I'm not one of the oscar experts around here, I just gave my sense of things. I didn't even watch the show last year so take all this with a grain of salt. |
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| Author: | andaroo1 [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:41 pm ] |
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Goldie wrote: Archie Gates wrote: King Kong - token mass appeal movie Munich - token serious deep movie Walk the Line - token americana movie, also fills the liberal niche in a less obvious way than other contenders. Pride and Prejudice - token brit movie Geisha - token diversity Just how it looks to me at this time. do token smaller films ever warrant a nom? Maybe replacing one of your categories > #5? Good Night, and Good Luck or Match Point His Pride and Prejudice fill that slot. |
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| Author: | Christian [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:43 pm ] |
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The funny thing is a lot of people claim this year is one of the foggiest races but we do seem to have three movies consistently showing up in predictions: Walk The Line, Munich, and Brokeback. It's the final two that are iffy. |
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| Author: | kypade [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:43 pm ] |
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Memoirs is getting nominated. Doubtlessly. Munich is gonna need an opening PTA of about 2k and less than 20 percent RT to miss out. Walk The Line is defly a defly, too. I wanna go GNAGL and Kong for the next too, with Match/World/Brokeback as possibilities. So final (until external forces prove me wrong): Memoirs Munich Line Night Brokeback/Kong/World/Match (in that order) |
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| Author: | andaroo1 [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:50 pm ] |
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Christian wrote: The funny thing is a lot of people claim this year is one of the foggiest races but we do seem to have three movies consistently showing up in predictions: Walk The Line, Munich, and Brokeback. It's the final two that are iffy. By this time last year we had the top 6 (the nominees + Hotel Rwanda) By this time the previous year we had the top 6 (the nominees + Cold Mountain) This year is quite a bit foggier. |
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| Author: | Renton [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:53 pm ] |
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Munich Walk The Line Brokeback Mountain Match Point Pride and Prejudice/The New World/Goodnight and Good Luck I don't think the reviews for Geisha will improve unfortunately. I'm just not feeling King Kong. |
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| Author: | Maverikk [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:08 pm ] |
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Walk the Line The New World Brokeback Mountain Good Night and Good Luck Munich |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:30 pm ] |
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Munich Walk the Line The New World Good Night, and Good Luck. Brokeback Mountain / King Kong / Pride and Prejudice / Memoirs of the Geisha |
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| Author: | Raffiki [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:39 pm ] |
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andaroo wrote: Christian wrote: The funny thing is a lot of people claim this year is one of the foggiest races but we do seem to have three movies consistently showing up in predictions: Walk The Line, Munich, and Brokeback. It's the final two that are iffy. By this time last year we had the top 6 (the nominees + Hotel Rwanda) By this time the previous year we had the top 6 (the nominees + Cold Mountain) This year is quite a bit foggier. I really don't think this year is that foggy at all... The main 6 players, I'm almost 100% sure of, are... Munich Memoirs Walk the Line The New World Good Night, and Good Luck Brokeback Mountain The only ones that can possibly sneak in, but have low chances are Match Point and Cinerella Man and to a much lesser extent, Syriana. I said before that I didn't think King Kong would end up with a nom but would be a bigger contender than most thought. I'm actualy retracting that now. Of course, we'll have to wait another 10 days to really see, but I think it's pretty weak and the pre-release buzz is all over the the other contenders, so... I don't think this year is that murky at all. It's just that it's such a weak list of contenders and the ones that are really strong have something wrong with them (too small, cultural backlash, late release) that it just makes it harder to pinpoint. |
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| Author: | Goldie [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:40 pm ] |
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Munich Walk the Line Brokeback Mountain King Kong or The New World < replacing Memoirs of the Geisha Good Night and Good Luck or Match Point or Pride & Prejudice |
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| Author: | Ripper [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:22 pm ] |
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loyalfromlondon wrote: Hmm... Good Night, and Good Luck King Kong Match Point Munich Walk The Line Match Point could be switched out for Memoirs. I'm not convinced at the chances for either Brokeback Mountain or The New World. Agreed on BM, and especially TNW, where is allt he oscar love for this film coming from? BM has gotten good reviews, but its still an uphill battle. Syriana could sneak in with enough buzz, Gaghan previous work was Traffic which was well liked. I think Syriana may make instea d of GDaGL. Ebert was asked why the talk for Bp seems so quite and he said "We're waiting for Munich.' Honestly, Mnich is such a huge frontrunner, if this movie is any good its going be impossible to beat. |
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| Author: | dar [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:45 pm ] |
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I kind of agree that these three seem safe... for now: Munich Walk the line Brokeback mountain Then It gets more difficult. I used to think "Memoirs" has Oscar written all over it... It definitely looks like a completely Oscar-y movie. But with the reviews that are out right now, I´m not so sure. If it fails,´apparently "The new world" could take the spot. Then It gets even more difficult. A blockbuster could be nominated... like Kong, or The producers. I think they will feel better nominating a musical like "Producers" and showing some love to Mel Brooks, but the movie needs to be a big hit... which It could be. I donnot see a little black and white film like "Good night and good luck" nominated, but I do see a nomination for George Clooney as best director. So right now, it would be 1. Munich 2. Walk the line 3. Brokeback mountain 4. Memoirs/The new world 5. Producers/King Kong But what I´d like is "Crash" doing a big comeback, or "Match point" getting nominated. Both things would surprise -and delight - me. |
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| Author: | Goldie [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:27 pm ] |
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Ripper wrote: loyalfromlondon wrote: Hmm... Good Night, and Good Luck King Kong Match Point Munich Walk The Line Match Point could be switched out for Memoirs. I'm not convinced at the chances for either Brokeback Mountain or The New World. Agreed on BM, and especially TNW, where is allt he oscar love for this film coming from? BM has gotten good reviews, but its still an uphill battle. Syriana could sneak in with enough buzz, Gaghan previous work was Traffic which was well liked. I think Syriana may make instea d of GDaGL. Ebert was asked why the talk for Bp seems so quite and he said "We're waiting for Munich.' Honestly, Mnich is such a huge frontrunner, if this movie is any good its going be impossible to beat. was this Ebert talk on tonight's show. |
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| Author: | Joker's Thug #3 [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:31 pm ] |
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. Munich . Good Night and Good Luck . Brokeback Mountain . Walk the Line . Match Point No hopefuls, thats exactly how it's gonna be 
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:20 pm ] |
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Munich Walk the Line Brokeback The New World King Kong |
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| Author: | Goldie [ Mon Dec 05, 2005 12:38 am ] |
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Looking the posts above, here is a quick summary ******************************************************** [table][row]MOST MENTIONS[row]Munich [row]Walk the Line [row]Brokeback Mountain [row]Good Night, and Good Luck. [row]PRETTY MUCH 3 WAY TIE IN MENTIONS FOR 5TH PLACE[row]King Kong [row]Memoirs of the Geisha[row]The New World [row]*******************************************************[row]Match Point [row]Pride and Prejudice[row]Producers[row]Crash[row]TO LEAST MENTIONS[/table] This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ |
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