I think both sites "odds" are pretty crappy, especially the first set, which is just horrible.
Most people into the awards season on this forum could make better predictions (or odds).
PEACE, Mike
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Nov 05, 2004 4:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Oscar Odds from Various Sites |
From readaBet.com: Best Picture: Ray 8/5 Alexander 3/1 The Passion of Christ 7/2 Phantom of the Opera 6/1 The Aviator 6/1 Closer 11/1 Finding Neverland 14/1 Kinsey 14/1 Fahrenheit 9/11 18/1 I Heart Huckabees 22/1 The Motorcycle Diaries 33/1 The last two have no chance, especially Huckabees. I'd replace them with The Sea Inside, Hotel Hwanda, or A Very Long Engagement. They weren't very good last year: Return of the King Mystic River Cold Mountain Big Fish House of Sand and Fog Here are the current odds for this year's Best Actor: Jamie Foxx 5/9 Liam Neeson 3/1 Johnny Depp 10/1 Gerald Butler 12/1 Kevin Spacey 14/1 Colin Farrell 14/1 Jim Caviezel 16/1 Leonardo Di Caprio 16/1 They must forget The Sea Inside, or they haven't updated it for a while. I expect Bardem to be right between Foxx and Neeson. Paul Giamatt should be moving up too. Best Actress: Annette Bening 5/4 Imelda Staunton 13/10 Laura Linney 14/1 Julia Roberts 16/1 Gwyneth Paltrow 18/1 Diane Lane 20/1 Reese Witherspoon 20/1 Kate Winslet 22/1 I agree it's basically two women race now between Bening and Staunton. I'd mention Uma Thurman before Witherspoon. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Reese Witherspoon ahead of Winslet? Ray ahead of all other movies? Sorry, but this list seems rather incompetent, hehe. |
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| Author: | torrino [ Fri Nov 05, 2004 7:00 pm ] |
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Bad list. Ray prob. won't even get an oscar nom for Best Picture. |
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| Author: | andaroo1 [ Sat Nov 13, 2004 10:06 am ] |
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Anybody who doesn't have The Aviator in their top 3 or so picks is absolutely fooling themselves. Alexander is nearly dead at this point. The Motorcycle Diaries before Eternal Sunshine? Please. |
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| Author: | Crow [ Sat Nov 13, 2004 8:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Terrible list and odds. Kinsey is getting so heavily criticized for its inaccuracies I dont really see it possible for Neeson to be a prime contender. Ray ahead of all the other films? No. Everything...pretty wrong. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 5:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Odds from http://www.intrade.com/: Best Picture 1. The Aviator 2. Million Dollar Baby 3. Sideways 4. Ray 5. Finding Neverland Best Actor 1. Jamie Foxx, Ray 2. Liam Neeson, Kinsey 3. Leo DiCaprio, The Aviator 4. Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland 5. Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside Best Actress 1. Annette Bening, Being Julia 2. Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby 3. Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake 4. Scarlett Johansson, A Love Song for Bobby Long 5. Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 Best Director 1. Martin Scorsese, The Aviator 2. Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby 3. Alexander Payne, Sideways 4. Mel Gibson, The Passion of the Christ 5. Marc Forster, Finding Neverland |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 5:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Look good, but I think that at the moment Hotel Rwanda is much more liklely to get a Best Pic nom than Ray and Finding Neverland. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 5:34 pm ] |
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InTrade is such a cool site that you can trade basically anything from political event to entertainment. I love looking at the bid/ask price for each contender. |
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| Author: | MikeQ. [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 10:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I think both sites "odds" are pretty crappy, especially the first set, which is just horrible. Most people into the awards season on this forum could make better predictions (or odds). PEACE, Mike
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| Author: | xiayun [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 10:37 pm ] |
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MikeQ. wrote: I think both sites "odds" are pretty crappy, especially the first set, which is just horrible. Most people into the awards season on this forum could make better predictions (or odds). PEACE, Mike The first one is way out of date, Mike.  Ignore that. I just didn't want to start a new thread. The ones from InTrade are actively traded, so they reflect the current opinions of many people. Don't be alarmed by Gibson's inclusion. If you check the bid/ask price for him, he is basically tied with a bunch of other directors, in that next to impossible to win category. Very few are betting anybody can win outside the top 3 for best director.
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| Author: | xiayun [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 10:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Here are the current bid/ask prices (these are future contracts, and the payoff is 100 if the contract turns out to be true and 0 otherwise; also real money is involved here, so it's not just some prediction game): Best Actress Annette Bening 40.0/49.9 Hilary Swank 28.0/37.0 Imelda Staunton 20.0/24.9 Scarlett Johansson -/6.9 Uma Thurman -/3.9 Catalina Sandino Moreno -/6.9 Kate Winslet -/5.0 Emmy Rossum -/3.0 Julia Roberts -/0.9 Comments: as you can see, nobody is really bidding after the top 3. Best Actor Jamie Foxx 60.3/68.9 Liam Neeson 8.0/11.8 Leonardo Dicaprio 7.0/10.9 Johnny Depp 7.0/10.9 Javier Bardem 3.1/7.9 Paul Giamatti 5.6/9.0 Don Cheadle 2.5/4.9 Comments: Foxx is the heavy favorite right now. I'd actually short Foxx and long Leo at this point. The payoff could be big. Best Picture The Aviator 41.9/43.9 Million Dollar Baby 32.0/33.0 Sideways 10.8/14.9 Neverland 6.0/9.4 Ray 3.1/5.0 Hotel Rwanda 2.1/3.7 Closer 1.7/2.6 The Passion of the Christ 1.5/2.7 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 1.0/1.4 Comments: as expected, horse-race between the top 2. Best Director Martin Scorsese 55.5/63.0 Clint Eastwood 30.0/35.0 Alexander Payne 3.1/13.0 Mel Gibson -/4.0 Marc Forster -/4.0 Michael Moore -/2.0 Walter Salles -/2.0 Michael Gondry -/2.0 Mike Nichols -/2.0 Bill Condon -/2.0 Comments: no activity after the top 3, and Scorese is the bigger favorite here than The Aviator for best picture. I agree. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 11:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
For anybody who is interested in how Golden Globe is trading, here they are: Best Picture(Drama) The Aviator 40.0/50.0 Million Dollar Baby 23.0/33.0 Finding Neverland 12.0/22.0 Hotel Rwanda 1.0/8.0 Kinsey 1.0/8.0 Closer 1.0/7.0 Best Movie(Musical/Comedy) Sideways 63.7/70.0 Ray 15.0/25.0 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 8.0/17.0 The Phantom of the Opera 2.0/12.0 The Incredibles 0.1/6.0 Best Director Martin Scorsese 50.0/60.0 Clint Eastwood 27.1/37.0 Alexander Payne 10.1/20.0 Marc Forster 2.0/8.0 Mike Nichols 1.0/5.0 Best Actor(Drama) Leonardo Dicaprio 30.0/35.0 Johnny Depp 25.0/35.0 Javier Bardem 17.0/27.0 Liam Neeson 10.0/20.0 Don Cheadle 2.0/12.0 Best Actress(Drama) Hilary Swank 55.0/60.0 Imelda Staunton 23.0/33.0 Scarlett Johansson 7.0/17.0 Uma Thurman 2.0/12.0 Nicole Kidman 1.0/7.0 Best Actor(Musical/Comedy) Jamie Foxx 75.0/80.0 Paul Giamatti 10.1/19.0 Kevin Spacey 7.0/17.0 Jim Carrey 2.0/12.0 Kevin Kline -/5.0 Best Actress(Musical/Comedy) Annette Bening 68.0/78.0 Kate Winset 12.0/22.0 Renee Zellweger 2.0/12.0 Emmy Rossum 2.0/12.0 Ashley Judd -/5.0 Best Foreign Film The Sea Inside 50.0/60.0 The Motorcycle Diaries 23.0/33.0 A Very Long Engagement 12.0/22.0 House of Flying Daggers 3.0/13.0 The Chorus -/5.0 |
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