The Descendants is the Up in the Air of this year. I wonder if it's as great as that movie.

The key thing for the Artist winning is the movie about movies thing. The AMPAs cookie monster that stuff. And I have a feeling like there'll be conversations like

"So what are you voting for"

"The Artist!"

"Yeah me too, the Artist"

"... I'm voting The Descendents"

*awkward silence*

"Hahaha. Are you the kind of person who hates silent movies or anything in black and white. Are you not into movie art? Maybe you should go watch Mission Impossible 4, you can go with Blake Lively and Robert Pattinson *cocktail circle laugh*"

If The Artist wins, it'll be the first silent film to win Best Picture since Wings/Sunrise at the very first Oscars.

I'd be fine with that, except War Horse should actually be a great film .

Yet another reason there'll do it. That narrative will be played out

There's a problem with this. The Social Network alienated the older Oscar voters with its Internet-centric storyline and cast of young adults. The Artist is a total ode to the elegance and romance of period Hollywood. Couldn't be more up their alley.

And The Artist is adding 2 theaters in its second weekend as well.

Maybe. But The Artist isn't the "early favorite" the way The Social Network was. Weinstein is keeping it relatively quiet and minor-key right now. He'll explode it later.

The Social Network was ending its run by this time last year.

"I think sometimes we in the industry have to do ambitious projects. Here was a movie directed no doubt by a French director but shot in Los Angeles, and it's an homage to American movies. When we talk about Oscars, it's almost as a symbol of excellence, and the American public and the worldwide public accept that symbol. So, [when] a movie like The Artist that costs $14 million ... has to go out and compete with movies that cost $140 million ... how does David deal with Goliath?"
-- Harvey Weinstein

http://www.npr.org/2011/12/02/143021987 ... oscar-race

With the race being so wide open this year I almost wonder if Black Swan had been released among this crop of movies if it could have actually won Best Picture. Just a thought. It would have had a better chance anyway.

My currently predicted line-up:

Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
Drive
Hugo
The Descendants
Incredibly Loud and Extremely Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy


Alt.: War Horse

There is no way War Horse doesn't get in....

http://jaybrissenden.com/hollywood-briss-oscar-insight-busy-bodies-buzz/

After seeing the Descendants, I definitely feel like it can win. It's not really a comedy or light movie. It has the gravitas they like for BP

So

The Artist
The Descendents
Hugo
Take Shelter

I'd be surprised if they didn't get in.

Tree of Life smells like the snub that reminds us it's the AMPAs and not critics that are voting for this, while The Help gets in on the other end of that. I'd round it out with one of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse, though my gut says both of those pull a Munich where they're disappointing but manage to sneak in anyways

Take Shelter has less of a chance than Bridesmaids, Harry Potter, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, X-Men: First Class, Super 8, Rango, and The Muppets.

Yeah, Take Shelter is not getting in.

The Artist, The Descendents, Hugo are safe, and I think War Horse is pretty much in too given its technical strength and how it appears to resonate emotionally in the early screenings. Then the next tier is the likes of The Help, Midnight in Paris, TTSS, The Tree of Life, and Drive.

Why is Take Shelter not in good shape? It's shown up a few times on Best Picture lists so far w/ the Artist, Descendants, Hugo, Tree of Life foursome, and if Shannon becomes the Best Actor frontrunner and Chastain is generally talked about a lot with her year, it can ride that

Michael Shannon is not going to become the Best Actor frontrunner, ever. He might get nominated but he'd probably be #5 in the category. And the movie is VERY small and didn't make very much money. A Serious Man, which seems comparable, grossed $10M and had the Coens behind it.

And if Chastain gets nominated for Supporting Actress, it'll be for The Help, most likely.

Take Shelter has grossed less than Senna, Potiche, and The Mighty Macs. It has literally zero chance.

Taking Shelter makes me think of Winter's Bone, so it does have a chance, but it doesn't have a locked nom like Lawrence was.

Winter's Bone wouldn't have gotten in with the new voting rules. Also it made four times as much.

I'm thinking Dragon Tattoo is in. The embargo is over and reviews are coming out and almost every one I've seen is a rave.

It hasn't fared all that well in critics awards though, and I'm not sure it's really academy's taste considering Seven and Zodiac, two Fincher's previous crime mystery efforts, combined for 1 nom total.

I'm thinking the top 6 are The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, War Horse, Drive, and Extremely Loud, then The Help and Midnight in Paris. TTSS looks to be pretty much out, and I still don't think The Tree of Life will get nominated.