snack 1, Shack 0

Bullshit, the economy makes up for Bush leaving. Also, every voter has already seen TDK and has it rated in their mind based on initial viewing 6 months ago.

If any movie is getting the 'mood of the time' vote (in Hollywood, remember), it's Milk.

And anyway, I don't think economic fears resonate within the context at TDK at all.

Yeah, unless Frost/Nixon or Doubt pick up critics awards right and left, TDK is pretty secure. At the moment, I'd put it at #4 ahead of Rev. Road.

My point was that most of the stuff you, and subsequently I, trotted out independent of context is meaningless. Nolan has had a writing nod in the past? PJ a directing nod? Oooooooh. Does this mean the guy that wrote Milk is fucked? How about Danny Boyle?

And I reject entirely the notion that Warner Brothers is any better than the other studios at securing Oscar nods. You know why they've been racking up noms? Because they release more films than pretty much anybody else, films that include Million Dollar Baby and The Departed. And these battles are fought by PR flacks that jump from one studio to the next. Whoever was responsible for The Departed campaign? In likelihood working at Sony or something this year. There's no consistent in-studio mechanism that works this. In other words, free agents work this shit.

And, anyway, Miramax was golden at getting nominations until they weren't.

Am I the only one who thinks Doubt is stronger than Rev. Road? It has 3 acting nominations LOCKED UP and probably 1 win, plus screenplay, score, costume, etc., and historically surburbia is spotty with Oscar, plus there could be some backlash for Mendes making the same movie twice. And in general it feels like Doubt has more raves than RR, but maybe that's just me. It's way above Frost/Nixon at the least IMO.

If any movie gets a nom from the summer, it's Wall-E.

This is like you and kind've. Trust me, they're both wrong. Very wrong.

King Kong did not make $530 million. Or have a performance that will really command Oscar attention (unless yoshue thinks Ledger's not guaranteed a nomination and is 95% secure for winning). Also, Universal had another film on the pipeline that almost won that year. WB has...Gran Torino.

And release date is really irrelevant now. Crash, Gladiator...and it's not like TDK is in trouble of being forgotten. WB is re-releasing it, the DVD comes out in December and will sell in droves.

And yes, TDK is still relevant. Unless the Academy is really out-of-touch, the economy is still in the shitter, and there's plenty of anxiety as to how Obama will perform (gee, Harvey Dent?). What, only Milk or TDK can be relevant? Bullshit.

By the way, they overturned the sole rotten review for Milk and with 18 in, it's still at 100%.

Added another one and still at 100%. The BFCA score settled back at 92 (was 93 for a few days). Looking very good.

Doubt is now officially 100% at RT with 5 reviews and an 8.2 average.

All this talk of TDK not being nominated is cute, very cute indeed.

So, Australia has dipped under 60% with 14-10 fresh. I just have a hard time letting it go completely because it's the perfect epic romance comeback film for the Academy. Oh well.

Milk: 20-0 100%

Milk got a negative review but also a slew of positive ones. 97% at RT and 86 at MC (with two 100s).

For those who have seen Milk... think it has any shot at winning?

I saw it nearly 3 weeks ago and I thought a win probably wouldn't be in the cards but now I'm wondering if it can pull it off.

If paired against Slumdog Millionaire, I think it can edge out (but the biggest risk of having a Crash/Brokeback turnout). Benjamin Button seems to be packing some passionate raves but will it be the consensus and will it resonate with the academy? I think that's the biggest question. I think Milk could beat Rev.Road because I expect the latter to have strong raves but be more mixed than Milk, plus (as would be a plus for Milk against The Dark Knight) even though technically the ending is a downer, the film's message is one of hope and change.

A second viewing should be on the way.

Exciting way of ending a column on In Contention though where's Rob Marshall?

King Kong just wasnt as good as TDK. Nor was it as well liked by auds. Hence comparing the two is useless. TDK will be nominated.

Australia stands at 51% RT. OUCH.

I'm about ready to move it off my ballot.

Yeah, me too. Though I may wait till I see it tomorrow.

In other news, Milk still stands at 97% with only 1 rotten review out of 36. It's on track to join Wall-E and TDK for best reviewed (scripted feature) films of the year. I doubt any of the contenders yet to be released will score that high with critics. to be quite honest, I'm surprised Milk has held this well. I thought it would finish in the 80's. At worst, it looks like it will be low 90's.

Going back a decade, Chocolat was previously the lowest rated BP nominee with 62%.

Not to be cynical, but in the wake of Prop 8 it's easy to see how no critic can stomach saying no to Milk.

I think it's probably the first "lock"... even Slumdog I wouldn't totally write in yet being a Boyle film, having no well known actors, less techs, etc.

Variety and HR both gave Cadillac Records good word. It's probably too small to be a push for the big awards, but Musical/Comedy at the Globes, a song nom, and a longshot supporting Actor nom for Wright looks possible.

Oh, and AO Scott on Milk: "the best live-action mainstream American movie of this year"

Live action? Is he gonna throw a #1 curve ball on a certain film this year?

His WALL-E review actually wasn't THAT laudatory....at least not as much as Rat's.