No, there's no way it seems.

With 10 Oscar noms and a likely $120+ million gross to boot...it's winning.

I don't know. Button's suddenly looking pretty strong. I mean, actor for Brad Pitt giving a flat out bad performance? Supporting actress for a mediocre generic mammy? Fuck Jar Jar would have brought that role more authenticity.

i dont know nothin bout birthin no babies

Button didn't get one nomination that it wasn't expected to (in fact it missed a sound nom to not get to 13), while Slumdog has a couple. If Cate had been nominated, it'd be a little more different. Getting to double-digit for Slumdog was thought to not be possible by many (although I did personally suggest it starting about a week ago), so reaching it just locks the BP more.

but it also never missed in a lot of places it could have. I mean, I think Slumdog's winning, obviously, but I wouldn't be shocked by Button at this point.

you know what's quite cute? year after year they snub Fincher for all those movies you guys like (I did like Zodiac, however), and now he finally makes a movie that no one really likes, and BAM.

WORST CASE SCENARIO for Slumdog is a Private Ryan/SiL split with Slumdog winning:

Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Score

and Benjamin Button getting:

Best Picture
Best Make-Up
Best Visual Effects
Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography


That's the very worst-case scenario I see.

I actually loved Button as movie (let's not argue about that again) but I agree that there was nothing at all special about Henson's performance. She was fine, maybe even "good", but nothing at all that was Best Supporting Actress material.

Of course, the Oscars are a joke and have been for a long, long time so is there really surprise here? To me, the Oscar noms are a yearly demonstration of the nonsense that is the Academy Awards.

As for Slumdog, I haven't seen it yet but want to. I am puzzled by how a movie can be a Best Picture frontrunner (pretty much have it in the bag, actually) but not get a single acting nomination. In defense of the Academy, though, I haven't really heard anything great about any of the acting. I mean, acting is kind of essential to a movie so without great acting how is something the best picture?

The last time BP/BD matched up 3 years in a row was 95/96/97. In fact, BP/BD matched from 1990-1997. Maybe we have another long streak going.

People, Benjamin Button isn't even in the BP running. Really, now.

I'm assuming that everyone that voted #1 for WALL-E and TDK would be more likely to vote for Ben Buttons than Slumdog. That's the only way it can win.

If Slumdog wins at the guilds, then it will lose Oscar. The Academy won't want to keep awarding it. Backlash will set in as more people see it and realize it's not all that. I hope anything wins over it.

Many.

LOLZ

There is absolutely no way now.

This is now on par with ROTK and Schindler's List in term of lockedness.

^ that's the most disheartening post I've read yet.

So is there like a lockedness spectrum?

Schindler's List
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No Country For Old Men
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Gladiator
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Braveheart
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Seabiscuit

I can only hope for an upset of epic proportions at this point. "Remember Crash" is what I keep telling myself. Anything can happen, no matter what history or precusors say.

Crash was shut out at the Globes, lost DGA, lost PGA, won WGA, won SAG, and pretty much stole BP from Brokeback Mountain.

Crash sweeped Best Ensemble everywhere, it was a favorite for Original Screenplay, it won Editing.

BBM, lost SAG Ensemble and didn't even get a Best Editing nom at the Oscars (remember what I said about BP winners not being nominated for Editing?)....

Slumdog has NOTHING going against it at this point. Even the fucking box-office is in its favor.

Looking at ACE, WGA, BFCA, DGA, PGA, GG, BAFTA, SAG wins. It ain't going down, hehe.

You make it sound like Crash winning BP was a foregone conclusion, when the truth is going into the Oscars, it was still Brokeback's Oscar to lose.

Slumdog is on its way to be one of the most awarded films ever made. It just disgusts me.

Only way I see it happening is if it succumbs to "presumed winner syndrome" (tm). Everybody loves an underdog, and despite Slumdog being a film about an underdog, the film itself is anything but. And let's not forget the racist element of the academy. That Clint Eastwood holds a lot of sway in Hollywood after all.

Of course, But there were at least some indicators and one or two people here said that IF a movie upsets BBM, it'll be Crash.

SAG Ensemble is big.

Most voters turn in their ballots in the first week, and there is nothing that suggests the majority isn't filling in Slumdog for almost everything at this very moment.

There's just no competition. Button clearly just isn't good enough or special enough to elict passion for a win, Milk has the gay thing and would've won SAG Ensemble if it had any shot. Frost is a non-factor.

The only film I see having more than a 0% chance is The Reader because Harvey is evil. But even then it's 99% Slumdog 1% The Reader.