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 Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread 
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Leo deserves an oscar before Kate.

What a stupid statement.

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Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:27 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
More Doubt reviews/thoughts:

Fox News (Roger Friedman)
The Film Experience

Also Sasha Stone on Streep from last week:

Quote:
What Streep does in Doubt is so expert, so stealthy, so intriguing it could be offered up on its own as a course in how to act. Where she got a brief negative mention by Todd McCarthy for not playing up the “big scene” the way Cherry Jones did in the stage play, she showed that an actor can reinterpret the material in such a way that it revives the work. Otherwise you are looking at something you’ve seen before; Streep is too smart for that.

Her Sister Aloysius Beauvier is unlike anything she’s done in the past and she colors this character with vulnerability, which may undercut the power of the film’s final scene if only that it is constructed to be the first time we see her dissolve. However, Streep and director John Patrick Shanley’s choice to give the character more highs and lows makes the film on the whole better and the story more interesting.

...

She is helped along by the fine enough Amy Adams, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Viola Davis but this is Streep’s show much the same way The Queen was Mirren’s show. And, like Mirren, Streep’s work seems poised to all but blow out the competition with two possible snags. One, many have written that Streep’s is too different from Jones’ and those people seem to prefer Jones. Two, Streep has been nominated so many times and won twice voters might be more inclined to give it to someone who has never won before. And though I’ll reserve judgment until seeing Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road, or Kristin Scott Thomas in I’ve Loved You for So Long, I can say with a fair amount of certainty that Streep’s may turn out be the best work any actor this year.

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Mon Nov 17, 2008 10:28 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Well Kristin Thomas unfortunately looks to have no chance at this point, RR"s not looking so hot, and Meryl's about to break a couple of records.


Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:30 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Chip [Bot] wrote:
Leo deserves an oscar before Kate.

What a stupid statement.


Yup, your statement indeed was.


Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:30 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Please elaborate then.

Leo is a better actor. Is more prominent. And has been around longer.

Sounds like he deserves one more.

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Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:31 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Chip [Bot] wrote:
And has been around longer.

Sounds like he deserves one more.


Not really. They both came into prominence around the same time, specifically with Titanic (conveniently, for both). One could say he was slightly more prominent before Titanic than Kate, but it's not like we're comparing Leo and Meryl Streep in terms of who's been around longer.

That said, they both deserve an Oscar someday. I'd rather see them both win one eventually, rather than bicker about who should get one first.

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Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:49 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
lol


Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:50 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I wouldn't mind it that much if Leo won before Kate. Yes, I am one of Winslet's biggest championeers (dictionary?) but it's not Leo is not deserving.

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Tue Nov 18, 2008 12:18 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Why don't we all just agree Leo and Kate are both fabulous actors who will each win an Oscar at some point?


Tue Nov 18, 2008 1:11 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
So yeah, I think Little Children is a good comparison for Revolutionary Road. It will be a contender for screenplay and 3 acting nominations along with a couple of technicals, but I think it's out of BP and director.

Australia seems to be getting a lot of decent reviews, along with a few glowings ones. Sounds like any other Baz Luhrmann film :P Too many factors have yet to be weighed in, inlcuding what the academy is in the mood for this year.

Have I already mentioned that I think Meryl Streep s on her way to Oscar #3? ;)

I would also add Michelle Williams to the best actress contenders. If Wendy & Lucy gets released tihs year.

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Tue Nov 18, 2008 9:39 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Wendy and Lucy may end up being too small.

And I have a feeling the Academy isn't completely taken with Michelle Williams. They denied her entry into the Academy even after getting nominated. But, I'd like to be surprised because she looks to give a great performance!

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Tue Nov 18, 2008 1:31 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Michelle Williams has less of a shot than, say, Cate Blanchett, which seems to be unfortunate, considering the fact that she seems to be amazing in it.

I don't get why RR is out of Best Picture...? Little Children wasn't going to make it to BP because of the terrible release strategy which f***** up its final box-office gross and therefore any chances for bigger awards. I do see the connections, though. ;)

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Tue Nov 18, 2008 2:25 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
As the early reviews for Australia are coming in, I think it's out for BP. Australian critics are praising it, but even they have reservations. I expect a final RT in the 70% range with 6.5 average, good enough for some technical noms but not BP/BD/screenplay.

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 4:43 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Frost/Nixon is at 91% at RT now and 7.6/10.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Reviews are healthy for Frost/Nixon and all, but I don't think people will really care that much for it. It's very GNGL-ish, but 2005 was an even weaker year. Doubt, on the other hand, can contend as long as it makes like $15 or 20 million and the cards are right, but I still don't see a Best Picture nomination at this point. Revolutionary Road, on the other hand, should be watched out for.

xiayun wrote:
As the early reviews for Australia are coming in, I think it's out for BP. Australian critics are praising it, but even they have reservations. I expect a final RT in the 70% range with 6.5 average, good enough for some technical noms but not BP/BD/screenplay.


Yeah, and I don't see it setting the box office on fire either.

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:39 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
GNGL also had a sort of "cool" factor that Frost/Nixon won't.


Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:51 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Hmm, I don't know... I'm not counting out Australia just yet. Word is that is indeed very lavish and it's been a while since the Academy has had the prime opportunity to nominate a sweeping epic.

I'm also carefully watching for Revolutionary Road. I think these two along with Benjamin Button are gonna be fighting for the last 2 spots.

Peter Travers just gave Milk 4 stars. That's quite big news! the only 4 stars he gave last year (for American films) were No Country, Blood, and Atonement. This year, it's only his second yet (first was Wall-E).

I say Milk is really solidifying its place in the top 5. I think they really should have released it today so it can gain some good word of mouth and then play in a few larger markets Thanksgiving weekend (as opposed to opening limited that weekend). And the timing would have been uncanny since the Prop 8 national protest was this past Saturday. Oh well.

Anyone think there is a chance for a Dark Knight snub...

Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road

.....?

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:53 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
snack wrote:
GNGL also had a sort of "cool" factor that Frost/Nixon won't.


yeah. it was called George Clooney. ;)

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:54 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I don't think there's an opportunity for a Dark Knight snub since there's nothing else really "dark" or "manly" in contention. If TWBB or No Country were this year, instead of say...and of the 5 you listed, I could see TDK missing. Right now though, I can't.


Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:56 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Australia and Revo. Road both won't get in over TDK.

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:58 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Milk got 4 Stars from Travers...the only other film to get that this year was Wall-E.


Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:59 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
In term of likelihood to be nominated:

1. Milk
2. The Dark Knight
3. Slumdog Millionaire

And I believe these three are definitely in. After that, I have The Curious Case of Benajmin Button, Revolutionary Road, and Doubt at the moment.

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 6:11 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
For now I go with:


Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Benjamin Button

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 6:14 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Final Picks:

Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Benjamin Button

Winner winner chicken dinner:

Wall-E, obviously

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Wed Nov 19, 2008 6:37 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I thought Milk was supposed to bomb. Or is that Slumdog?

TDK
Ben Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Wall-E
Alt: Revolutionary Road

snack wrote:
GNGL also had a sort of "cool" factor that Frost/Nixon won't.


David Strathairn with a cigarette is inherently cool.

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