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 The Contenders II 
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Mav - is it worth charting Half Nelson? It seems to be a contender - possibly an acting nod. It is 90% at RT too.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/half_nelson/

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Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:31 pm
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MadGez wrote:
Mav - is it worth charting Half Nelson? It seems to be a contender - possibly an acting nod. It is 90% at RT too.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/half_nelson/


I added it to the chart.

I also added Factory Girl. (no reviews yet)

Departed got another positive at RT, and it also got another 100 at MC.


Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:48 pm
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Thanks :happy:

This is the first time in a long while my most anticipated film (The Departed) is getting magnificent reviews. Cant really wait another week aggghh!!!

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Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:57 pm
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Ok, my last update tonight.

The Queen got another 100 at MC.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:09 am
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The battle between The Departed and The Queen to challenge U93 for the best reviewed film of the year is exciting. Both have a MC average of 91, and we'll see which gets the second negative review first. While The Departed has always been one of my most anticipated, I really didn't have much interest in The Queen to begine with, but now I can't wait to see it too.

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:01 am
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xiayun wrote:
The battle between The Departed and The Queen to challenge U93 for the best reviewed film of the year is exciting. Both have a MC average of 91, and we'll see which gets the second negative review first. While The Departed has always been one of my most anticipated, I really didn't have much interest in The Queen to begine with, but now I can't wait to see it too.


The wait is over, as Hollywood Report Card has given The Departed it's second negative, even though it says "Strong dialogue, intrigue and great music. Top notch acting, crisp direction and editing."


Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:13 pm
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The Departed got a second negative but a few more positives as well to stay at 94%. The Queen is up to 98% now.

Contrary to Mav, I believe Mirren is far and away the frontrunner for the Best Actress prize, and I see her getting on a Hoffman type of run through the award season, even with strong competitions (Hoffman faced some tough challengers too).

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:15 pm
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xiayun wrote:
The Departed got a second negative but a few more positives as well to stay at 94%. The Queen is up to 98% now.

Contrary to Mav, I believe Mirren is far and away the frontrunner for the Best Actress prize, and I see her getting on a Hoffman type of run through the award season, even with strong competitions (Hoffman faced some tough challengers too).


The biggest difference with Hoffman's competition is that none of those actors were owed/overdue. They all went into the race on pretty much equal ground. While Mirren has been nominated for a few supporting roles, she's not in the class of a Kate Winslet (Happy Birthday, Katie!). Also, Winslet fits in with the direction the academy has been going with their leading leadies.

Supporting roles are much more friendly to senior actresses, and for the most part, actors, too.

Since 1997, there has definitely been an "America's Sweetheart" vibe with the Best Actress category, despite not necessarily being the most critically raved of the bunch.

Helen Hunt
Gwyneth Paltrow
Hilary Swank
Julia Roberts
Halle Berry
Nicole Kidman
Charlize Theron
Hilary Swank
Reese Witherspoon

Kate Winslet's name fits much better in that group than does Helen Mirren, which is why I feel she has an uphill climb to win anything.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:52 pm
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I doubt academy will think Mirren isn't in the class of Winslet. In fact, that's the biggest obstacle for Winslet. Her biggest strength is she is considered due, but that diminishes a great deal against Mirren. It's not in term of nominations, but the general quality Mirren has given over all these years. I feel she is definitely considered due by the members. Also unlike Walk the Line, Little Children is a cold film, easy to respect but hard to embrace. And unlike Million Dollar Baby, it is a long shot to get a BP nomination. And unlike Theron, Hoffman, or Witherspoon, there haven't been a big "here is your Actress winner" cheer with Winslet's performance after people saw it at the festival. Rather, such "should start preparing for her acceptance speech" praise has fallen on Mirren in more than a few reviews. Overall, I also feel The Queen will be more accessible and a bigger hit among the voters.

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:08 pm
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xiayun wrote:
I doubt academy will think Mirren isn't in the class of Winslet. In fact, that's the biggest obstacle for Winslet. Her biggest strength is she is considered due, but that diminishes a great deal against Mirren. It's not in term of nominations, but the general quality Mirren has given over all these years. I feel she is definitely considered due by the members. Also unlike Walk the Line, Little Children is a cold film, easy to respect but hard to embrace. And unlike Million Dollar Baby, it is a long shot to get a BP nomination. And unlike Theron, Hoffman, or Witherspoon, there haven't been a big "here is your Actress winner" cheer with Winslet's performance after people saw it at the festival. Rather, such "should start preparing for her acceptance speech" praise has fallen on Mirren in more than a few reviews. Overall, I also feel The Queen will be more accessible and a bigger hit among the voters.


If the academy considers Mirren in the same class as Winslet, then why hasn't she been given nominations for all of her quality work, yet Winslet is a "given" every time she steps in front of the camera and gives a good performance? Mirren may well be a very respected actress, but if it comes down to the two of them, Winslet has the love from the academy to back up that she's much more of a darling in their eyes.

Winslet has 4 nominations, no wins. She's had the same Golden Globe nominations, and the same losses. The academy is known for giving awards for lesser fare as a prize for the superior work that got snubbed.

And Mirren isn't being touted the way Hoffman, Theron, and Witherspoon were early in the race. She's just being touted as a lock for a nomination by most.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:40 pm
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3 more positive reviews for The Departed.

Could the academy realistically piss in Marty's face by NOT nominating a film with such high marks?


Thu Oct 05, 2006 4:25 pm
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Maverikk wrote:
xiayun wrote:
I doubt academy will think Mirren isn't in the class of Winslet. In fact, that's the biggest obstacle for Winslet. Her biggest strength is she is considered due, but that diminishes a great deal against Mirren. It's not in term of nominations, but the general quality Mirren has given over all these years. I feel she is definitely considered due by the members. Also unlike Walk the Line, Little Children is a cold film, easy to respect but hard to embrace. And unlike Million Dollar Baby, it is a long shot to get a BP nomination. And unlike Theron, Hoffman, or Witherspoon, there haven't been a big "here is your Actress winner" cheer with Winslet's performance after people saw it at the festival. Rather, such "should start preparing for her acceptance speech" praise has fallen on Mirren in more than a few reviews. Overall, I also feel The Queen will be more accessible and a bigger hit among the voters.


If the academy considers Mirren in the same class as Winslet, then why hasn't she been given nominations for all of her quality work, yet Winslet is a "given" every time she steps in front of the camera and gives a good performance? Mirren may well be a very respected actress, but if it comes down to the two of them, Winslet has the love from the academy to back up that she's much more of a darling in their eyes.

Winslet has 4 nominations, no wins. She's had the same Golden Globe nominations, and the same losses. The academy is known for giving awards for lesser fare as a prize for the superior work that got snubbed.

And Mirren isn't being touted the way Hoffman, Theron, and Witherspoon were early in the race. She's just being touted as a lock for a nomination by most.


Well first off, Mirren is 30 years older than Winslet, and doesn't have as much time to get awarded. Winslet is sure to have plenty of more amazing perfs in the future.

Second, I think Mirren is the kind of actress that people always thought deserved some kind of due but never had the performance to get it, much like Hoffman. The Queen is the kind of movie that showcases her talent and is easy to award.

Third, as Xiayun noted, Little Children has been constantly called "Good, not great" by critics and film festival goers alike (It still doesn't have a 100 on Metacritic), while The Queen has nary a hater.

Fourth, Also as Xia said, The Queen will go down voters' throats much easier than Little Children, which is dark, dark, dark. If you're dark and not flooring in quality, getting academy attention is hard.

So yeah, I definintely agree with Xia that at this point in time (It's foolish to be double guessing at this point), Mirren is the frontrunner. Of course, so was Imelda Stauton a couple years back at this point, but nobody had seen MDB yet, so. . .


Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:20 pm
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Maverikk wrote:
3 more positive reviews for The Departed.

Could the academy realistically piss in Marty's face by NOT nominating a film with such high marks?


If they can piss on his face for Raging Bull, The Aviator (Both of which had the most noms their year), Taxi Driver and Goodfellas, they sure as hell can for this.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:24 pm
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The Departed just exploded with a ton of new positive reviews, now 40 out of 42 and an average of 8.3.

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:38 pm
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Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
Maverikk wrote:
3 more positive reviews for The Departed.

Could the academy realistically piss in Marty's face by NOT nominating a film with such high marks?


If they can piss on his face for Raging Bull, The Aviator (Both of which had the most noms their year), Taxi Driver and Goodfellas, they sure as hell can for this.


All those films got nominated.

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:42 pm
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Killuminati510 wrote:
Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
Maverikk wrote:
3 more positive reviews for The Departed.

Could the academy realistically piss in Marty's face by NOT nominating a film with such high marks?


If they can piss on his face for Raging Bull, The Aviator (Both of which had the most noms their year), Taxi Driver and Goodfellas, they sure as hell can for this.


All those films got nominated.


They were also a lot more academy-friendly. I remain persistant that The Departed is too mainstream for them, 96% RT score be damned (BTw, that increased to 46/48, which I'll admit is impressive).


Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:51 pm
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One thing against Mirren's chances at winning is the Streep will be likely to steal away some of the potential older demographic's votes for Mirren. In fact, if Streep wins the Comedic Actress Golden Globe over Mirren (which is very likely), I'd say she has a greater shot than Mirren of winning the Oscar as well.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:55 pm
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Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
Killuminati510 wrote:
Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
Maverikk wrote:
3 more positive reviews for The Departed.

Could the academy realistically piss in Marty's face by NOT nominating a film with such high marks?


If they can piss on his face for Raging Bull, The Aviator (Both of which had the most noms their year), Taxi Driver and Goodfellas, they sure as hell can for this.


All those films got nominated.


They were also a lot more academy-friendly. I remain persistant that The Departed is too mainstream for them, 96% RT score be damned (BTw, that increased to 46/48, which I'll admit is impressive).


If this makes $80-100M before nomination morning, and keeps up this critical acclaim, It is really difficult to believe It won´t get major nominations, including BP...

Or maybe It´s silly wishful thinking me, or the euphoria from all the amazing reviews...

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:56 pm
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Not being academy-friendly might be what stops you from getting the win, but I mean now with raves coming left and right, a nod is pretty much a lock at this point.

The only things that could hurt it's chances is a dissapointing BO and/or lack of an oscar campaign.

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Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:01 pm
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So I'm alone now on those that refuse to call The Departed a BP lock until B.O. numbers come in?

That's okay, I was the only one saying King Kong didn't have chance on OW, and look what happened there!

I. Won't. Be WRONG. :persistant:


Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:05 pm
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Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
So I'm alone now on those that refuse to call The Departed a BP lock until B.O. numbers come in?

That's okay, I was the only one saying King Kong didn't have chance on OW, and look what happened there!

I. Won't. Be WRONG. :persistant:


What is your criteria for The Departed's box office to make it not a nominee?


Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:06 pm
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alex young wrote:
Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
So I'm alone now on those that refuse to call The Departed a BP lock until B.O. numbers come in?

That's okay, I was the only one saying King Kong didn't have chance on OW, and look what happened there!

I. Won't. Be WRONG. :persistant:


What is your criteria for The Departed's box office to make it not a nominee?


It needs $90M or more to get nominated. I say it stops at $75M.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:09 pm
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Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
So I'm alone now on those that refuse to call The Departed a BP lock until B.O. numbers come in?

That's okay, I was the only one saying King Kong didn't have chance on OW, and look what happened there!

I. Won't. Be WRONG. :persistant:


You. Will. Be. Wrong. :tongue:

I think everyone is pretty sure that The Departed will do well box office wise. Why do you think The Departed won't hit up well enough at the box office? I guess, like alex already asked, it depends on what your limit is for a good enough box office for the Oscars.

PEACE, Mike.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:12 pm
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Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
alex young wrote:
Mood-Swing Jon wrote:
So I'm alone now on those that refuse to call The Departed a BP lock until B.O. numbers come in?

That's okay, I was the only one saying King Kong didn't have chance on OW, and look what happened there!

I. Won't. Be WRONG. :persistant:


What is your criteria for The Departed's box office to make it not a nominee?


It needs $90M or more to get nominated. I say it stops at $75M.


Those are some very random numbers, considering the grosses of Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Goodnight and Good Luck, Munich, Ray, Finding Neverland, Sideways, Mytic River, Master and Commander, Lost in Translation, etc.

But it's going to make $90m+ (overall) anyways so it won't matter.


Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:13 pm
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alex young wrote:
Those are some very random numbers, considering the grosses of Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Goodnight and Good Luck, Munich, Ray, Finding Neverland, Sideways, Mytic River, Master and Commander, Lost in Translation, etc.

But it's going to make $90m+ (overall) anyways so it won't matter.


Most of those (Except maybe Master and Commander) weren't commercial enough for box office to be a factor. The Departed is getting a 3,000+ theater release and has been marketed as a shoot-'em-up action thriller with thumpa-thumpa music. That's commercial enough to be a potential turn-off, IMHO.

Again, I could be very much wrong, but this is my strongest gut feeling since King Kong. I'll follow it until proven wrong.

See y'all on Saturday. :happy:


Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:18 pm
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