But as much as Slumdog Millionaire seems in for many critics awards and a BP nom, I dfeinitely do not see it winning.

If reviews stay this good, it would win over TDK in a second.

It's rare that the film that gets the best reviews of the bunch of 5 actually wins.

Did anyone even hear of "Slumdog Millionaire" 2 weeks ago?

I've known about it since its big arrival at Toronto, which was a couple months ago. It has been in the cards as a contender since then.

SURE it has.

I guarantee it doesn't get a BIG nom.

GUARANTEE.

I GUARANTEE (in all caps) you fail.
Anyways, if people really is as much of crowd pleaser as it's looking to be, I'd say it's good for a win (unless Benjamin Button or RR completely exceed expectations)

I am going to be a happy man on Oscar nom day!

I will forgive you if that happens.

If not, I am shunning this site.

I think it'll get in for Editing for sure, there's lots of praise for how the gameshow bit is integrated into the story, and lots of praise for it visually period. So that's 4 noms, which is normal.

Wall-E can't get a BP nom because Vantage Point is a sure bet for Best picture.

First of all, I never said that TDK is a lock to win or anything, but it is a movie with the ultimately better chance. As roo has said, movies with the best reviews don't often win (Sideways, The Queen, Capote, Brokeback Mountain, L.A. Confidential) - not to mention films with excellent reviews that weren't even nominated.


Slumdog is, after all, a movie without big names, a movie with no more than 4-5 noms overall and simply not a movie that the Academy usually gives an Oscar to. For it to have a shot at BP, it'd have to get something like 95/100 at MC and 98% at RT as well as at least $60-70 million at the box-office.

Only 4-5 nominations tops? Picture, Director, Screenplay look very solid. That's 3. The music has been heavily praised so as long as the Academy doesn't shit the bed with this category again, 5. The Editing category has been extremely weak this year and at least one slot is a gimme, so 6. Anthony Dod Mantle is nearly as overdue as Christopher Doyle but actually has a mainstream breakthrough here (and the lighting is gorgeous in the trailers), so 7 is very doable. Supporting Actor has four surefires and I don't see Milk getting two nominations in one category, so why not one for Dev Patel if the film really catches fire? 8.

That means everything has to go really right, though. Which is possible. Fox Searchlight's pushing this harder than the Wrestler and there hasn't been any bad news I've heard about it yet.

Not sure if it has been posted already...

http://www.emanuellevy.com/article.php?articleID=11738


More Oscar buzz for Streep and Davis

Chip [Bot], you strike me as the kind of guy who is really surprised on nomination morning. I bet you'd have asked the same question about Amélie and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon a couple years back.

Anyhow, I think Slumdog is creating a driving force and doing tons of promo so they're clearly working well in trying to create something here. I'm dying to see the movie!

Yep.

You nailed me.

How'd you know!

You must be a genius!

I know nothing about movies! That's why I've been on a movie forum for 5 years! TO LEARN! YEYASJHFJHELFHE

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that if Slumdog has the best reviews, it will win. If it keeps up the very strong reviews though, it has a very, very good chance. Uplifting melodrama is right up the Academy's alley (barring last year), and will provide a good contrast to last year's bleak winner.

Unless one of the yet-to-really-be-reviewed films surprises (Doubt, RR, Benjamin Button, The Reader, Australia), and since neither Milk nor TDK are in it for the win in my opinion, it seems like the only option. And it has Fox Searchlight.

Minorities + "Indie" Feel + likely box office success + timeliness in economy/opportunity with Obama zeitgeist + Fox Searchlight, I think its chances are very, very good.

Australia has no ending, Doubt's seeming less-and-less like a BP/BD player, The Reader has the lovely Weinsteins, RR is starting with bad buzz, and we haven't heard anything about Button in quite some time. Unless one of them turns around, there's not a winner in this group.
Most here don't think Milk is in it for the win, and I, frankly, am too stubborn to see TDK have even a shot at a win.

I apparently missed something here, but I remember someone posted a review of the pre screening that said Mendes made a great movie and both Kate and Leo shine in their performances. Wouldn't call that bad. Were there more links to explain this bad buzz?

I don't get the so-called bad buzz for it either. Someone just wants it to fail.

Eh...maybe it was just bad trailer buzz.

That trailer was pretty much the worst thing ever, so yea... I have no problem with keeping it out the five as a result. Lions for Lambs and Rendition were out after their trailers too. I don't have absolute certainty like with those films that it'll fail, but it's pretty close.

I think the front-runner to win at this point is The Dark Knight if only for the fact that nothing else has emerged.

I think it's either Australia, Button, or TDK for the win. Slumdog Millionaire is a real big darkhorse at this point.

Second Doubt review:

http://boxoffice.com/reviews/2008/11/doubt.php


By now, I kinda don't think it will be a BP/BD player either. I see it going the way of House of Sand and Fog, 21 Grams or Closer. Meaning only several acting nods and probably a Screenplay nom.


Streep is definitely the frontrunner at this point for Best Actress as both reviews really really praise her. Viola Davis is locked for a nom as well.

3 acting noms and that's it imo. Kinda like Iris.