Lol I remember when Reese said she was completely surprised at her nomination for Walk the Line

So this is the big secret budget issue the pundits are hinting at?



http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office ... 201680094/

But it is not a secret...

Honestly it seemed even more expensive than that. The Revenant would not be out of place in summer blockbuster season.

I guess I need to go see the Revenant now

Some of the pundits are beginning to post their predictions -

Tapley at Variety has Spotlight winning 2, Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay.

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-content ... 201600870/

Gurus o Gold also has Spotlight winning 2, Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/01/gurus- ... rt-1-of-2/

It keeps being thrown around how Spotlight is at a big disadvantage because it is poised to win no more than just two Oscars een if it wins Best Picture.

But why does no one mention that having no Screenplay nominations is statistically a disadvantage to The Revenant and Mad Max as well?

Titanic was the last one to still win BP without a Screenplay nod. That was 18 years ago and Titanic was the fucking highest-grossing film of all-time, which does give it a slight advantage over The Revenant and Mad Max.

The Big Short and Spotlight are actually the only films at the Oscars nominated for Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing, which does put them in the best position, it seems.

As reported by Tom O'Neil, Pete Hammond, and Anne Thompson (I had trouble believing the stat but apparently it's true), the last film to win Best Picture and a lone additional Oscar was The Greatest Show on Earth in 1953, some 63 years ago. That could be the only stat that matters this year.

Simply put, wiith respect to how voting works within the ranks of AMPAS members, you don't win Best Picture with just Screenplay. If they like it enough to award it BP, it's winning more than Screenplay.

I think it really just shows that the Oscars this year are going to go against a whole lot of norms. We can definitely rule out wins for The Martian, Room, Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn, I think.

And considering there is very little dialogue in either Mad Max or The Revenant, it makes sense they would not have writing noms. The Artist is the only film without much dialogue I can remember getting a writing nom recently.

The arguments in regards to Mad Max and The Revenant being weak because of the lack of screenplay noms never made much sense and there's already a lot of debate from pundits on whether it's a worthwhile stat to trot out (the consensus seems to be not really). Both use visual storytelling vs traditional screenplay mechanics. They got the nominations that matter, Picture, Director, Editing, and their overall tallies indicate widespread AMPAS support.

Mad Max/ Revenant could easily split votes. And then Spotlight will win.

Or Spotlight could simply just win outright? Since the field was expanded in 2009 and AMPAS started using preferential ballots, we haven't seen what would appear to be heavy vote splitting that results in another winner. But since voting is kept secret, we'll never know 100%.

Tallies for Best Picture winners since 2009

Birdman went 4/9 - Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography (Won PGA/DGA)
12 Years A Slave went 3/9 - Picture, Supporting Actress, Screenplay (Tied PGA)
Argo went 3/9 - Picture, Screenplay, Editing (Won PGA/DGA)
The Artist went 5/10 - Picture, Director, Actor, Costume Design, Score (Won PGA/DGA)
The King's Speech went 4/12 - Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay (Won PGA/DGA)
The Hurt Locker went 6/9 - Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing (Won PGA/DGA)

But Spotlight could split votes with The Big Short!

It seems, Loyal, like you would like to say that Spotlight most definitely won't win, but don't quite have the balls to do so

No, seriously if Spotlight wins on Saturday I'm ready to call the race.

So, on the other hand, what you are saying is not that the race might be over on Saturday, but that it will be over on Saturday. Unless something other than The Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max or The Reenant wins, which won't happen.

I honestly do feel that PGA=BP this year. For a race with seemingly four frontrunners, I think the PGA is going to highlight the film that will do best with the Academy's preferential ballot and a large membership.

Even though voting isn't until next month, I don't see anything that could happen guild-wise or with BAFTA that would undo a PGA win. It's going to make for a boring month but yeah, Saturday is key as it's been the last 8 years.

It is curious, though, since the producers really don't make up much of the Academy's membership...

So let's say Spotlight wins PGA, but The Revenant wins DGA and BAFTA and The Big Short wins SAG, you will still be predicting Spotlight come Oscar night?

I'm going in with the prediction that Spotlight is losing DGA. If Mad Max: Fury Road doesn't win DGA, The Revenant will. It's a two film race for DGA IMO.

I don't think SAG matters as much this year, since 3/5 films aren't even nominated for BP and two of the frontrunners who are cast-lite aren't present. I think The Big Short has a 50% chance of winning SAG, I just don't think it matters much. I'm also predicting SAG is going to Spotlight.

BAFTA I honestly never followed much, though I know the Brits carry a lot of weight.

In a season this crazy, the only thing I'd caution is final voting is still 20 days away from starting. Statistically speaking, The Big Short has BP locked up. We could still see one last turn but I'm going with history and saying TBS wins BP, along with Editing and Screenplay.

Best Director is up for grabs.

Agreed. I just cant see the Academy giving a BD oscar to the director of Step Brothers and Talledega Nights. Though would be awesome if it happened.

1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Spotlight
4. The Revenant

Just seen The Big Short and at least now I totally get why the film is the frontrunner for Editing.

If it wins Best Picture, it will definitely be the "hippest" film they have ever awarded, if you know what I mean.

I just realized that there is an interesting parallel between The Big Short's plot and its awards performance. On the film, the signs for the imminent financial collapse were all there, but most people just ignored them.

In this year's Oscar race, if you look back, all the signs were pointing towards The Big Short, even though it has won nothing of significance before the PGA Awards.

But it positioned itself as the frontrunner simply per default, looking at the stats.

- No film has won Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nomination after 1995. That pretty much put the field down to The Big Short and Spotlight.

- No film since 1989 has won BP at the Oscars without an ACE nom - which Spotlight didn't get

- No film has won BP at the BP at the Oscars since Titanic, without a Screenplay nomination - that favors Spotlight and The Big Short over The Revenant and Mad Max again

- But The Big Short got a Director nomination at the BAFTAs and Spotlight didn't

So to sum it up:

Mad Max: no Screenplay nomination, no BP/BD-noms at the BAFTAs and no SAG Ensemble nomination
The Revenant: no Screenplay nomination, no SAG Ensemble nomination and director has won a year before
Spotlight: No ACE nomination, no BAFTA BD-nomination (still arguably in the best position)

The Big Short has got all of that AND it will also have the box-office too, looking to go into the Oscar night with $65+ million, an upper hand over Spotlight. And obviously the PGA win to boot now. Looking at some of the previous films that won the PGA, but lost the Oscar:

Little Miss Sunshine - no Director nomination at the Oscars
Brokeback Mountain - no Editing nomination at the Oscars
Apollo 13 - No Director nomination at the Oscars
Moulin Rouge! - No Director nominaton at the Oscars

The Big Short has no handicaps, whereas its competitors do.

Dr. Lecter you present a powerful case. Am I to understand then that The Big Short will win Director And Best Picture?