Jeffrey Wells said this today



http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2008/10/what_4.php

I don't trust Wells much, but it's still not the best sign... he's been on this film's side up to this point so he wouldn't be saying this just to be a jerk. If nothing else this means full reactions are only around the corner.

Honestly, that doesn't surprise me all that much. But what would the nominees look like without Milk at this rate?

TDK
Benjamin Button
WALL-E
The Wrestler
Slumdog Millionaire

That'd be a hell of an eclectic set, but could it happen?

I'm waiting for anything on Gran Torino right now... imdb has it listed as action/drama, and I'd think that if Clint was truly going for Oscar again, he'd come up with a better cast than the tv actor nobodies he has. But he is Clint.

I'm not saying anything about GT until I see some footage.

After some deliberation:

TDK
Benjamin Button
WALL-E
The Wrestler
Australia

They always throw in something portentous like Australia. Luhrmann hasn't done a boner yet. Wall-E takes the comedy slot as the indies cancel each other out.

It's somewhat noteable that Weinstein seems to be intent on releasing Shanghai this year... dunno, if he moved the Road and Cheri because they weren't going anywhere Oscar-wise, it might be a good sign that he's stayed with this one right where it is as a December limited. The Reader and it are the only Oscar-ish films he has left on the schedule. But then again, maybe it just hasn't been seen at all. And the Weinstein co. has not been as dominant as Miramax in their prime. I still think it's the biggest sleeper right now though, considering the weakness of the year. Good cast, nominatable plot, and the early pictures show competence in terms of pretty cinematography and costume design.

Possible. Any good footage on it? Or Valkyrie?

http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/happygolucky

With 27 reviews in, it stands at 84/100 and has 5 100s. That's a better score than Juno and Rachel Getting Married (though so far the latter has more 100s, it still might change, though).

Box office is the big stumbling block for that, Rachel Getting Married and Slumdog. I see Slumdog going the furthest by far, and the Wrestler could break out quite a bit too.

RGM's biggest hurdle is the BFCA score (71-ish). BFCA is made up of more of the lesser tier entertainment voters, tieing in pretty perfectly with the AMPA voting block, thus it's usually the best indicator we have. That also makes sense considering pretty much ALL of its negative reviews on RT are from the non-professional, lesser tier critics... it's a critics movie, not an AMPAs one. In comparison LMS had 94, Juno 93, the lowest of the BP nominees last year was 87, year before nothing below 90 got in. It has no chance, unfortunately.

Happy-Go-Lucky's score is 85, btw. Makes sense with where I have it, as a film that has enough pull to get Actress, Screenplay, maybe Supporting Actor noms, but it won't make the BP splash Juno and LMS did.

Yeah, the $18,000 PTA is pretty okay-ish. Maybe a lone director nom for one of them.

Where are the BFCA scores found anyway? I know TDK had something ridiculous like a 96, but I want to find more, and Wall-E's, too.

Just http://www.bfca.org/

Wall-E's doesn't say too much considering Rat had 91 and even Cars 89, but it's enough regardless. TDK is the highest I can find other than American Beauty (99) and Chicago (98). ROTK had 95.

1. The Dark Knight
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Australia
4. The Reader or Revolutionary Road
5. Gran Torino or Slumdog Millionaire

I still don't know what to make of Milk as a contender.

Jesus! TDK's locked.

WALL-E is alright there. It just needs some backing at the end of the year.

I made purdy new predictions in the Ballot thread assuming there aren't any real surprises heading our way and Milk is out of BP.

Surely not! Its been heavily marketed here for November, cant seeing them change that atleast.
May mean it has quality issues and not good enough for oscar?

At this rate The Dark Knight will be a shoo-in for many noms and some wins too. Unless offcourse Benjamin Button is as good as we hope it will be!

Meh. At this rate they could have an Oscars based off of only movies that missed nominations last year and have a much (much much) better slate. (i.e. Rat, Diving Bell, Savages, Zodiac, Away From Her for BP, Persepolis & 4 Months in Foreign, etc.)

I think they'll co-exist very nicely.

Updates...

Since seeing the Australia trailer I've been somewhere between 95 and 100% sure it would be a mess... this is no surprise to me I have no idea how the reaction here to that trailer was so favorable, I think its failure was as written on the wall as with Rendition and Lions for Lambs last year. I'd say the same thing about Revolutionary Road.

Think we should start considering Cadillac Records as a darkhorse, in this weak year

http://justjared.buzznet.com/2008/10/20 ... ie-stills/

You could also say that Dreamgirls was pretty crappy and still got close and the most nominations... so if CR is good, yeehaw!

77 MC.

The Full Monty was rated R, a comedy, became Fox Searchlight's highest-grossing picture for seven years, and got nominated for Best Picture in an extremely competitive year.

I don't think the R will hurt, in other words.

True that.

I'm expecting a reaction decent enough to get the acting noms and maybe sneak in as the 5th nom or the BP without BD chioce, but not raving enough for more.

Contrary to RT, Metacritic likes Changeling:

http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/changeling2008

65/100 and two 100-scores. Crash and Babel had 69/100. I'm not saying that this has any chance at a BP nom, but just pointing out, that it doesn't look as bad as it may seem. A nom or two are still possible.