Bale
DiCaprio
Ejiofor
McConaughey
Redford

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker, The Butler

Algren's refusal to put Ejiofor in his Top 5 is LOL-worthy.

I am intrigued by his choice of Casey Affleck in Ain't Them Bodies Saints. It is absurd and unrealistic, yet in an interesting way when he could have just said, say, Martin Freeman for The Hobbit or Danny Trejo for Machete Kills.

Enough Said is still sitting at 100% at RT. If the movie makes a decent box office impact (which it probably will), I could see Fox Searchlight pushing a posthumous James Gandolfini nomination, despite the crowdedness of this category.

Pushing, yes. But I am not sure they will succeed.

Hanks for CP has to get nominated, he kills it.

There's only room for one nigger in my Top 5.

I wonder if I should rather replace Whitaker or DiCaprio with him...

mcconaughey's more likely than whitaker

McConaughey is happening for sure, in my opinion. The film will be largely well received. The role requires a physical transformation and a range of intense emotions. It is the culmination of his reinvention as a serious actor.

This is a hard category this year. I do not believe it is absurd to say these actors have at least a realistic shot:

Christian Bale*
Bruce Dern
Leonardo DiCaprio
Chiwetel Ejiofor*
Idris Elba
Tom Hanks*
Michael B. Jordan
Matthew McConaughey*
Joaquin Phoenix
Robert Redford*
Forest Whitaker

A few are obviously stronger than others at this point in the race, but still. I put a * next to the five I am currently predicting.

At the moment I'm seeing....

Leonardo DiCaprio "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave"*
Tom Hanks "Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey "Dallas Buyers Club"
Robert Redford "All Is Lost"

Only alternatives I see happening...
Christian Bale "American Hustle"
Michael B. Jordan "Fruitvale Station"

* projected winner

"Nebraska" really needs to make a big impression on audiences for Dern to even be considered. "Mandela" won't have any buzz for it and "Her" needs to come on the radar for Phoenix to even potentially be considered an alternative.

I would not entirely rule out Forest Whitaker.

I am rooting for Redford to win.

Up the Redford

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost

finally no niggers

Feels good, doesn't it? To find a place where you can use terms like that.

But yep, I try my best to separate the wheat from the chaff.

lol



He is still predicting Matthew McConaughey for a movie with AIDS-related subject matter, though. I'm shocked.



It's appalling that that is the case here.

I think Ejiofor, Hanks, and McConaughey are locks, with Ejiofor being the frontrunner. The role really reminds me of Adrien Brody in The Pianist, though I guess Brody was never really a frontrunner. I also think Robert Redford will make it into the lineup with about five other performances vying for the final spot. Bruce Dern, Forest Whitaker, Michael B Jordan, Christian Bale, and Joaquin Phoenix. Whitaker might be overshadowed by Oprah. Jordan's film has faded, and needs a great campaign to put his performance back in the race. And the rest depend on the impact of their films when they're released in December. Right now, I'm saying Dern makes it.

Oh, and I forgot to mention DiCaprio. He might have a chance at a nomination (I definitely don't see a win), but I'm uncertain about the film's potential in general. It's just a very a competitive year.

Yeah, because America is so open and warm to all races.

That's neither here nor there. Your misgivings as a human being should not be encouraged on here.

In other news, my current predix:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Forest Whitaker, The Butler

I suspect Forest Whitaker's performance, while very engaging and regal, is too quiet to push out Bale and DiCaprio, assuming at least one of their two films meets or exceeds expectations. I am not even sure Whitaker will be Harvey's primary push in this category (Michael B. Jordan).

Oh, haha, that's a very modern notion. I stand with thousands of years of history, I just accept the natural way instead of supressing it because of societal pressure. You're the coward here.

Yawn.